Why Virginia Democrats Need to Get Out the Vote This Fall in District 7

From left, Democrat Jack Trammel and Tea Party Republican David Brat

If you thought U.S. Rep. Eric Cantor’s views on the budget and other matters were bad, take a look at the guy Virginia Republicans in House District 7 chose instead. Mother Jones provides these nuggets about Randolph-Macon College (student population: 1,300) economics professor and tea party candidate David Brat.

It’s hard to imagine Brat denouncing white celebrities as he has Jay-Z and Beyonce, except everyone knows tea partiers are NOT racist
  • His negative ads criticized Cantor for entertaining the idea of immigration reform and acting to end the debt ceiling crisis
  • He wants to cut Medicare and Social Security assistance to seniors by two-thirds
  • Climate change is not an issue because “rich countries solve their problems”
  • […]

It’s Too Early to Count ‘Likely Voters’

A tip: There is no such thing as a likely voter six months before a general election, and if you think there is one, you’re likely cooking the books. Our rule is to always begin introducing likely voter models after Labor Day.

— NBC’s First Read, criticizing news organizations and pollsters that use “likely voter” models “to describe an election environment before Memorial Day when many Americans haven’t even begun to tune in to the general election.”

Republicans Never Saw This Coming: Sen. Kay Hagan Owns Her Support for Obamacare

Sen. Kay Hagan, D-NC

You know what’s at stake. Only six wins this fall for Republicans leaves them to rule the Senate. If that happens, House-passed bills outlawing contraception and abortion, promoting guns, and cutting food stamps even for children will be the law of the land. And those 50 votes to defund and rescind Obamacare? Done deal.

That’s why states where Democratic senators seem at risk are drowning in dollars from those who profit if Republicans are in charge. Can you blame the Koch brothers for spending millions through their front group, Americans for Prosperity, on ads to tip these races? They’ll earn back billions if their legislation — like a bill to charge people for using solar panels instead of burning the fossil fuels that are heating our planet but lining the Kochs’ pockets — passes.

Pundits, at first stunned by a Democrat not playing by the GOP rules, are realizing the brilliance of Hagan’s move.

North Carolina, where Sen. Kay Hagan (D) is up for re-election, could be drawing the most outside money.

Voters in North Carolina have already been bombarded with 15,000 television political advertisements thanks to the U.S. Senate race…

The cost of those ads is a whopping $6.3 million, and nearly all of them have been paid for by outside groups, according to an analysis by the Wesleyan Media Project.

Many of the ads criticize Hagan’s vote for the Affordable Care Act (ACA), a strategy chosen by Republican consultant Karl Rove and the Kochs after the healthcare.gov website’s rocky launch last October. But the overall success of Obamacare’s first enrollment period leaves fewer one-issue voters who will go to the polls just to get rid of the ACA’s supporters.

[…]

Koch Brothers Set to Spend Unprecedented ‘Dark Money’ on Midterms

$125 million

Amount the Koch brothers’ main political arm intends to spend on an aggressive ground, air and data operation benefiting conservatives in the midterm elections. “The projected budget for Americans for Prosperity would be unprecedented for a private political group in a midterm, and would likely rival even the spending of the Republican and Democratic parties’ congressional campaign arms,” according to Politico.