Trump Got the Debate He Wanted, But Will it Help Him?

The day after the debate
Does it feel like something changed at that first presidential debate of 2020? Putting aside that it was exactly the kind of debate that the year 2020 deserved, it felt like during all that bellowing, bullying, heckling, and lying, Trump pushed a few more voters away.

I’m not a pollster. My observations are just that: the most elemental of research, what I see and hear around me.

The day of the debate, I heard Trump supporters talking about recording the show like it was a ball game their team was likely to win. I heard laughter about Biden. On a neighborhood walk, I saw mostly Trump/Pence signs. They appeared early and continued to outnumber Biden signs.

The day after the debate, I heard no chortling about how well Trump did. In fact no one mentioned the debate at all, the subject just too painful. When I came home, it seemed that my neighbors’ yards filled with Biden signs overnight. No matter where my eyes fell, there was a Biden/Harris sign in view.

The official polls reflecting post-debate sentiment won’t be out for awhile. But I’m cautiously optimistic they’ll back up what I’m seeing and show that Trump is sliding just a bit, losing support every time he opens that tight, pursed mouth to let all that anger out.

Watching Trump live-tweet Biden in person was hard. But it might be what it takes to turn enough Americans away from his nightmare presidency.

Trump Hires Incompetent Pollster to Critique CNN Poll

14 points

After a new CNN poll came out showing Donald Trump trailing Joe Biden by 14 percentage points, the president announced he has retained Republican pollster John McLaughlin to write a memo denouncing the poll. However, Jonathan Chait points out McLaughlin is “a laughingstock within the profession.” McLaughlin has a FiveThirtyEight pollster rating of C/D and is one of the lowest-rated polls in their database.

Move Over George Bush, Trump Is Now the Most Unpopular President in the History of Polling

Donald Trump’s incessant boasting is one of his most obnoxious traits — another is the fact that much of his bragging is based on lies — the size of the crowd at his inauguration, for example.

But here’s an achievement Trump has chosen not to boast about. In October 2019 he became the most unpopular president in the history of polling, according to ratings compiled by Gallup.

[…]

Poll: Support for Trump’s Impeachment Higher Than for Nixon, Clinton at Start of Their Inquiries

Axios: “Public support for President Trump’s impeachment is higher than it was for Richard Nixon and Bill Clinton when the House launched impeachment inquiries against them.”

Why it matters: Support for impeachment of Trump is still less than half the country — 44% in the Monmouth University poll shown here; 47% in CNN. And the polling reflects a 50-50 country. But the Ukraine scandal is pushing the numbers up.”

Finally – a Pollster Asks How the Majority of 2016 Voters View the Political Scene

logo-pppOn Dec. 21, Public Policy Polling sent out a series of tweets with results from recent polling of normal American voters. As the pollster put it, “We know people get sick of hearing what Trump voters think about things, so here's a thread on what supporters of the popular vote winner think about things…”

Here’s what PPP found in its poll of people who voted for the candidate who won the most votes in the 2016 election:

[…]

Trump’s First-Year Approval Level Is a Historic Low

presidential_approval_december

Vox: “Lyndon Johnson and Gerald Ford are excluded from this chart, as their first Decembers in office didn’t come after an electoral victory, and didn’t amount to almost a full year as president. (Still, both their approval ratings were above 35 percent, though Ford’s was the lowest — at 42 percent in December 1974 — after taking office in August following Nixon’s resignation.)”