Democrats in Keys States Are More Motivated to Vote


A new Kaiser Family Foundation/Cook Political Report poll finds Democrats have a slight edge in enthusiasm in three key battleground states. Over six in ten Democratic voters in Pennsylvania (66%), Michigan (65%), and Wisconsin (62%) say they are more motivated to vote in next year’s 2020 presidential election than they were in 2016. This is at least 10 percentage points higher than the share of Republican voters in each state saying the same (54% in Pennsylvania, 53% in Michigan, and 46% in Wisconsin).

Voter Enthusiasm Highest Ever


Washington Post: “If we combine the two most enthusiastic categories in CNN’s polling (those who say they’re extremely enthusiastic and those who identify as very enthusiastic), we see that combined enthusiasm has been at or above 70 percent in every poll CNN has conducted this cycle. … Only once before has that measure of enthusiasm been at 70 percent: Two weeks before the 2004 election, 70 percent of voters were at least very enthusiastic about voting in it. … And that’s the low so far this year.”

Democrats Have an 18-Point Lead in Enthusiasm

18 points

Stanley Greenberg: “The press dutifully reports that President Trump has the approval of 85% of Republicans, and this poll shows he has 87%. But that is not the same as enthusiasm, and on that Democrats have a big gap: a stunning 85% strongly disapprove; while 67% of Republicans strongly approve. That is an 18 point enthusiasm gap. (And we know from 2018, it was the less enthusiastic Republicans who did not vote or shifted to the Democrats.) This gap is twice the enthusiasm gap on the president that gave the Democrats such a victory in 2018.”

Science Says Too Many Democrat Candidates Will Spoil the Election

“It might seem like a good thing to have a cereal aisle’s worth of candidates to choose from, but behavioral science predicts that too many options will, counterintuitively, result in lower satisfaction among Democratic voters—and possibly lead to lower enthusiasm and lower turnout. … An abundance of marginal candidates will make it harder for Democratic primary voters to comfortably evaluate the candidates with realistic chances of winning—and paradoxically that will reduce enthusiasm for the party’s eventual nominee.”

Lilly Kofler

Half of College Students Say They’ll Vote in Midterms


A new College Reaction survey finds that 50% of college students say they’ll “definitely” vote this year. That includes 57% of Democrats and 40% of Republicans. Axios: “If true, that kind of turnout could help Democrats, since Republican students are more lukewarm about whether they’ll vote. But in reality, young voters aren’t exactly known for rushing to the polls in midterm elections. It would take a sharp break with recent history for that to become a reality.”

Dems Have Big Enthusiasm Lead Going Into 2018

63% to 52%

A new Public Policy Polling survey finds “63% of Democrats say they’re ‘very excited’ about voting in the 2018 election, compared to only 52% of Republicans who express that sentiment. When you look at the 2018 House picture just among the voters most excited about turning out next year, the lead for Democrats grows to 19 points at 57-38. Republican leaning voters are comparatively disengaged, with the GOP holding advantages only among voters who are ‘somewhat excited’ (48-40) and ‘not that excited’ (46-31).”