Election 2020 – Pensito

More than Half of Dems Favor Woman of Color on Biden Ticket

June 19, 2020 Buck Banks

59%

A new Monmouth poll finds 59% of Democratic primary voters believe having a woman of color as Joe Biden’s running mate would increase the ticket’s chances of victory. Just 5% say such a pick would make a Democratic win less likely, 16% say it would make no difference and 20% are not sure.

Biden Leads Trump by Nearly 10 Points Nationally

June 19, 2020 Buck Banks

50.5% to 41.3%

FiveThirtyEight launched its polling averages for the 2020 presidential race: “Biden currently leads Trump 50.5% to 41.3% in national polls, according to our average — a 9.2-point lead. … Biden also leads Trump in swing states such as Michigan, Wisconsin and Arizona — although his lead in many swing states are not as wide as his margin in national polls, suggesting that the Electoral College could once again favor Trump in the event of a close election.”

Biden’s Lead Up to Double Digits Over Last Two Months

June 9, 2020June 9, 2020 Buck Banks

10.2%

Nate Cohn explains that every high-quality national poll with proper education weighting had Joe Biden leading Donald Trump two months ago by an average of 6.2%. And nearly every one of them have him leading by more today, by an average of 10.2%. Vox notes that Biden’s lead is not only larger than Hillary Clinton’s in 2016, “it’s more secure.”

Dems Back Warren for Biden Veep Pick

May 4, 2020 Buck Banks

71%

A new CBS News poll finds Elizabeth Warren is well atop Democratic voters’ list of those who should be considered for vice president — with 71% saying she should be. Warren also outpaces other possible picks by a wide margin as their first choice for the job: Warren at 36% first choice, to Kamala Harris’ 19%, Stacey Abrams at 14%, and Amy Klobuchar at 13%. No one else gets over 4%.

RNC Poll Roils Trumpers

May 4, 2020 Buck Banks

48% to 45%

Washington Post: “One of the polls, an internal RNC survey of voters in 17 battleground states, had former vice president Joe Biden leading Trump 48% to 45%, according to an adviser briefed on the 20-page polling memo. The coronavirus ranked as the most important issue to voters, and 54% of those surveyed said Trump was too slow to respond to the crisis, while 52% said they believed the government should be doing more.”

Biden Says His Veep Will Be a Woman

March 16, 2020 Buck Banks

“If I’m elected president, my Cabinet, my administration will look like the country. And I commit that I will in fact pick a woman to be vice president.”

— Joe Biden committed to picking a woman as his running mate if he wins the Democratic presidential nomination.

One in 10 Trump Voters Might Not Vote for Him This Time

March 11, 2020 Buck Banks

10%

A new analysis of data from the 2019 Cooperative Congressional Election Study survey finds as many as one in 10 Trump voters is considering voting for somebody else in 2020. “These voters are individuals who neither strongly approve nor strongly disapprove of the job Trump is doing as president. If Democrats want to win over these voters, they’ll have to choose their message wisely.”

Biden Supporters Motivated by Desire to Beat Trump

March 4, 2020 Buck Banks

“The other thing that Biden lacked that literally, every other candidate had more of than he did: money and organization. Sanders and Warren had invested in field operations and the early vote for months. Bloomberg, of course, spent more than $500 million on TV ads and campaign infrastructure. But, in the end, Biden had the more powerful GOTV operation: Donald J. Trump. Democrats want to beat Trump. Biden is the guy who is most likely to do it. The end.”

— Amy Walter

Trump Could Lose Re-Election — to Coronavirus

February 28, 2020 Buck Banks

“If the coronavirus epidemic materially affects US economic growth it may increase the likelihood of Democratic victory in the 2020 election.”

— A new Goldman Sachs report is warning Wall Street that the coronavirus outbreak could cost President Trump the election in November, CNN reports. Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi said he now sees a 40% chance of a US recession during the first half of 2020, up from 20% previously.

Election Integrity Skepticism Runs High

February 27, 2020 Buck Banks

3 thirds

A new AP-NORC poll finds considerable skepticism about the democratic process in the United States. “While a third of Americans say they have high confidence in an accurate count, roughly another third are only moderately confident and a remaining third say they have little confidence.”

59%

A new Monmouth poll finds 59% of Democratic primary voters believe having a woman of color as Joe Biden’s running mate would increase the ticket’s chances of victory. Just 5% say such a pick would make a Democratic win less likely, 16% say it would make no difference and 20% are not sure.

50.5% to 41.3%

10.2%

71%

48% to 45%

“If I’m elected president, my Cabinet, my administration will look like the country. And I commit that I will in fact pick a woman to be vice president.”

— Joe Biden committed to picking a woman as his running mate if he wins the Democratic presidential nomination.

10%

— Amy Walter

“If the coronavirus epidemic materially affects US economic growth it may increase the likelihood of Democratic victory in the 2020 election.”

— A new Goldman Sachs report is warning Wall Street that the coronavirus outbreak could cost President Trump the election in November, CNN reports. Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi said he now sees a 40% chance of a US recession during the first half of 2020, up from 20% previously.

3 thirds

A new AP-NORC poll finds considerable skepticism about the democratic process in the United States. “While a third of Americans say they have high confidence in an accurate count, roughly another third are only moderately confident and a remaining third say they have little confidence.”

Poetic Justice

Verbatim

— President Trump, quoted by the Washington Post, during a 20-minute interview with Donald Trump Jr. on his online show “Triggered.”

“Tony Fauci has nothing to do with NFL Football. They are planning a very safe and controlled opening. However, if they don’t stand for our National Anthem and our Great American Flag, I won’t be watching!!!”

— President Trump ripped Dr. Anthony Fauci for suggesting football might not be played this year due to the coronavirus.

— Dr. Samantha Whiteside, a Tulsa emergency physician, writing in Tulsa World.

“This is deep swamp revenge porn on the part of John Bolton.”

— White House trade adviser Peter Navarro, quoted by CNN, on John Bolton’s new tell-all book.

“Do you get the impression that the Supreme Court doesn’t like me?”

— President Trump, on Twitter.

Numerati

47

24%

59%

A new Monmouth poll finds 59% of Democratic primary voters believe having a woman of color as Joe Biden’s running mate would increase the ticket’s chances of victory. Just 5% say such a pick would make a Democratic win less likely, 16% say it would make no difference and 20% are not sure.

50.5% to 41.3%

61% to 35%