Biden Leads Trump by Nearly 10 Points Nationally

50.5% to 41.3%

FiveThirtyEight launched its polling averages for the 2020 presidential race: “Biden currently leads Trump 50.5% to 41.3% in national polls, according to our average — a 9.2-point lead. … Biden also leads Trump in swing states such as Michigan, Wisconsin and Arizona — although his lead in many swing states are not as wide as his margin in national polls, suggesting that the Electoral College could once again favor Trump in the event of a close election.”

Biden’s Lead Up to Double Digits Over Last Two Months

10.2%

Nate Cohn explains that every high-quality national poll with proper education weighting had Joe Biden leading Donald Trump two months ago by an average of 6.2%. And nearly every one of them have him leading by more today, by an average of 10.2%. Vox notes that Biden’s lead is not only larger than Hillary Clinton’s in 2016, “it’s more secure.”

Dems Back Warren for Biden Veep Pick

71%

A new CBS News poll finds Elizabeth Warren is well atop Democratic voters’ list of those who should be considered for vice president — with 71% saying she should be. Warren also outpaces other possible picks by a wide margin as their first choice for the job: Warren at 36% first choice, to Kamala Harris’ 19%, Stacey Abrams at 14%, and Amy Klobuchar at 13%. No one else gets over 4%.

RNC Poll Roils Trumpers

48% to 45%

Washington Post: “One of the polls, an internal RNC survey of voters in 17 battleground states, had former vice president Joe Biden leading Trump 48% to 45%, according to an adviser briefed on the 20-page polling memo. The coronavirus ranked as the most important issue to voters, and 54% of those surveyed said Trump was too slow to respond to the crisis, while 52% said they believed the government should be doing more.”

One in 10 Trump Voters Might Not Vote for Him This Time

10%

A new analysis of data from the 2019 Cooperative Congressional Election Study survey finds as many as one in 10 Trump voters is considering voting for somebody else in 2020. “These voters are individuals who neither strongly approve nor strongly disapprove of the job Trump is doing as president. If Democrats want to win over these voters, they’ll have to choose their message wisely.”

Biden Supporters Motivated by Desire to Beat Trump

“The other thing that Biden lacked that literally, every other candidate had more of than he did: money and organization. Sanders and Warren had invested in field operations and the early vote for months. Bloomberg, of course, spent more than $500 million on TV ads and campaign infrastructure. But, in the end, Biden had the more powerful GOTV operation: Donald J. Trump. Democrats want to beat Trump. Biden is the guy who is most likely to do it. The end.”

Amy Walter

Trump Could Lose Re-Election — to Coronavirus

“If the coronavirus epidemic materially affects US economic growth it may increase the likelihood of Democratic victory in the 2020 election.”

— A new Goldman Sachs report is warning Wall Street that the coronavirus outbreak could cost President Trump the election in November, CNN reports. Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi said he now sees a 40% chance of a US recession during the first half of 2020, up from 20% previously.