Tag: Election 2020

Former RNC Chair Steele Joins Lincoln Project

Buck Banks

“I get my role as a former national chairman. I get it, but I’m an American. I get my role as a former party leader. I’m still an American. And these things matter to me more than aligning myself with a party that has clearly decided it would rather be sycophantic than principled.”

— Former RNC Chairman Michael Steele is joining the Lincoln Project, a group of Republicans working to prevent President Trump’s re-election, CNN reports.

Why the Controversy Over the Postal Service and the Election Is a Tempest in a Teacup

Buck Banks

editorial illustration post office
Despite the worst intentions of Postmaster General and Trump flunky Louis DeJoy, the United States Post Office can handle the volume of mail that will be generated in the 2020 presidential election. It’s a simple matter of mathematics.

There are approximately 156 million registered voters in the United States who are eligible to vote in the 2020 presidential election. In the 2016 presidential election, about 75% of eligible voters cast a ballot. If that percentage holds true for 2020, that would mean about 117 million people are likely to vote.

Systems are in place to allow up to 180 million Americans to vote by mail in the presidential election. The USPS processes 425 million pieces of mail every day, so, if we consider that most mail-in ballots will be mailed in the two weeks before Nov. 3, the Postal Service’s capacity during those 14 days is 5.95 billion pieces of mail.

To overload the system, then, every eligible voter would have to send 38 pieces of mail during the second half of October.

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Biden Leads Trump by Nearly 10 Points Nationally

Buck Banks

50.5% to 41.3%

FiveThirtyEight launched its polling averages for the 2020 presidential race: “Biden currently leads Trump 50.5% to 41.3% in national polls, according to our average — a 9.2-point lead. … Biden also leads Trump in swing states such as Michigan, Wisconsin and Arizona — although his lead in many swing states are not as wide as his margin in national polls, suggesting that the Electoral College could once again favor Trump in the event of a close election.”

Biden’s Lead Up to Double Digits Over Last Two Months

Buck Banks

10.2%

Nate Cohn explains that every high-quality national poll with proper education weighting had Joe Biden leading Donald Trump two months ago by an average of 6.2%. And nearly every one of them have him leading by more today, by an average of 10.2%. Vox notes that Biden’s lead is not only larger than Hillary Clinton’s in 2016, “it’s more secure.”

Dems Back Warren for Biden Veep Pick

Buck Banks

71%

A new CBS News poll finds Elizabeth Warren is well atop Democratic voters’ list of those who should be considered for vice president — with 71% saying she should be. Warren also outpaces other possible picks by a wide margin as their first choice for the job: Warren at 36% first choice, to Kamala Harris’ 19%, Stacey Abrams at 14%, and Amy Klobuchar at 13%. No one else gets over 4%.

RNC Poll Roils Trumpers

Buck Banks

48% to 45%

Washington Post: “One of the polls, an internal RNC survey of voters in 17 battleground states, had former vice president Joe Biden leading Trump 48% to 45%, according to an adviser briefed on the 20-page polling memo. The coronavirus ranked as the most important issue to voters, and 54% of those surveyed said Trump was too slow to respond to the crisis, while 52% said they believed the government should be doing more.”

One in 10 Trump Voters Might Not Vote for Him This Time

Buck Banks

10%

A new analysis of data from the 2019 Cooperative Congressional Election Study survey finds as many as one in 10 Trump voters is considering voting for somebody else in 2020. “These voters are individuals who neither strongly approve nor strongly disapprove of the job Trump is doing as president. If Democrats want to win over these voters, they’ll have to choose their message wisely.”