It’s Too Early to Count ‘Likely Voters’

A tip: There is no such thing as a likely voter six months before a general election, and if you think there is one, you’re likely cooking the books. Our rule is to always begin introducing likely voter models after Labor Day.

— NBC’s First Read, criticizing news organizations and pollsters that use “likely voter” models “to describe an election environment before Memorial Day when many Americans haven’t even begun to tune in to the general election.”

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