Mnuchin Not Foreseeing a Recession

“I don’t think so. The real issue is not the economic situation today… This is a unique situation. We are going to have a slowdown. Later in the year economic activity will pick up as we confront this virus.”

— Despite forecasting an economic slowdown, Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin told ABC News that he does not think the coronavirus pandemic will cause a recession.

Trump Could Lose Re-Election — to Coronavirus

“If the coronavirus epidemic materially affects US economic growth it may increase the likelihood of Democratic victory in the 2020 election.”

— A new Goldman Sachs report is warning Wall Street that the coronavirus outbreak could cost President Trump the election in November, CNN reports. Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi said he now sees a 40% chance of a US recession during the first half of 2020, up from 20% previously.

Swing States Experiencing a Manufacturing Recession Already

22

“A manufacturing recession may already be under way in vulnerable swing states, challenging President Donald Trump’s campaign promise to deliver blue-collar jobs to his base,” NBC News reports. “Out of the 22 states with manufacturing job losses so far this year, some of those with the biggest percentage declines are states where Trump won by less than 5 percentage points.”

Trump Pushes Democrat/Media Conspiracy on Economy

“They are willing to lose their wealth, or a big part of it, just for the possibility of winning the Election. But it won’t work because I always find a way to win, especially for the people!”

— President Trump, tweeting that “the Democrat Party” and “the Fake News Media” are saying a recession is on the way in an effort to hurt his reelection chances next year.

Trump’s Stupid, Destructive Ideas Have Staying Power

“There are lots of reasons to worry about how President Trump would handle a recession, should we tip into one. There’s his incompetent economic team. Or the limited fiscal policy tools at his disposal, given that Republicans already spent nearly $2 trillion on tax cuts. Or his efforts to discredit the Federal Reserve just when we’ll need it most. … One underrated concern: Trump’s tendency to double down on stupid and destructive ideas, despite — perhaps because of? — overwhelming evidence of their stupidity and destructiveness.”

Catherine Rampell