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39%
“In the latest quarterly survey by The Wall Street Journal, business and academic economists lowered the chances of a recession within the next year to 29% from 39% in the January survey. That was the lowest probability since April 2022, when the chances of a recession were set at 28%.”… “Economists, in fact, don’t think the economy will get even close to a recession.”
780,000
New analysis from Moody’s Analytics finds that Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s plan to cut spending and lift the debt ceiling “would meaningfully increase the likelihood” of a recession and result in 780,000 fewer jobs by the end of 2024 compared with a clean bill to lift the debt limit.
2.9%
“The economy grew at an annual 2.9% pace in the third quarter, updated figures show, and the U.S. is on track to expand again in the waning months of 2022 despite growing worries of recession,” Marketwatch reports.
42%
A new Gallup poll found that 42% of Americans say the economy is now in a recession, and another 30% say the economy is now in a depression.
“I don’t think so. The real issue is not the economic situation today… This is a unique situation. We are going to have a slowdown. Later in the year economic activity will pick up as we confront this virus.”
— Despite forecasting an economic slowdown, Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin told ABC News that he does not think the coronavirus pandemic will cause a recession.
0%
Bloomberg: “Traders are pricing in about 80 basis points of cuts in March, and 100 basis points by July, which would drag borrowing costs down to zero.”
“If the coronavirus epidemic materially affects US economic growth it may increase the likelihood of Democratic victory in the 2020 election.”
— A new Goldman Sachs report is warning Wall Street that the coronavirus outbreak could cost President Trump the election in November, CNN reports. Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi said he now sees a 40% chance of a US recession during the first half of 2020, up from 20% previously.
22
“A manufacturing recession may already be under way in vulnerable swing states, challenging President Donald Trump’s campaign promise to deliver blue-collar jobs to his base,” NBC News reports. “Out of the 22 states with manufacturing job losses so far this year, some of those with the biggest percentage declines are states where Trump won by less than 5 percentage points.”
37%
A new Quinnipiac poll finds that since the first time since the 2016 election, more voters say the economy is getting worse than say it’s getting better. Voters still think the economy is good, but of those polled, 37% say the economy is getting worse, compared with 31% who say it’s getting better and 30% who say it’s staying the same.
“They are willing to lose their wealth, or a big part of it, just for the possibility of winning the Election. But it won’t work because I always find a way to win, especially for the people!”
— President Trump, tweeting that “the Democrat Party” and “the Fake News Media” are saying a recession is on the way in an effort to hurt his reelection chances next year.
