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A new Gallup poll found that 42% of Americans say the economy is now in a recession, and another 30% say the economy is now in a depression.
“I don’t think so. The real issue is not the economic situation today… This is a unique situation. We are going to have a slowdown. Later in the year economic activity will pick up as we confront this virus.”
— Despite forecasting an economic slowdown, Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin told ABC News that he does not think the coronavirus pandemic will cause a recession.
Bloomberg: “Traders are pricing in about 80 basis points of cuts in March, and 100 basis points by July, which would drag borrowing costs down to zero.”
“If the coronavirus epidemic materially affects US economic growth it may increase the likelihood of Democratic victory in the 2020 election.”
— A new Goldman Sachs report is warning Wall Street that the coronavirus outbreak could cost President Trump the election in November, CNN reports. Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi said he now sees a 40% chance of a US recession during the first half of 2020, up from 20% previously.
“A manufacturing recession may already be under way in vulnerable swing states, challenging President Donald Trump’s campaign promise to deliver blue-collar jobs to his base,” NBC News reports. “Out of the 22 states with manufacturing job losses so far this year, some of those with the biggest percentage declines are states where Trump won by less than 5 percentage points.”
A new Quinnipiac poll finds that since the first time since the 2016 election, more voters say the economy is getting worse than say it’s getting better. Voters still think the economy is good, but of those polled, 37% say the economy is getting worse, compared with 31% who say it’s getting better and 30% who say it’s staying the same.
“They are willing to lose their wealth, or a big part of it, just for the possibility of winning the Election. But it won’t work because I always find a way to win, especially for the people!”
— President Trump, tweeting that “the Democrat Party” and “the Fake News Media” are saying a recession is on the way in an effort to hurt his reelection chances next year.
“There are lots of reasons to worry about how President Trump would handle a recession, should we tip into one. There’s his incompetent economic team. Or the limited fiscal policy tools at his disposal, given that Republicans already spent nearly $2 trillion on tax cuts. Or his efforts to discredit the Federal Reserve just when we’ll need it most. … One underrated concern: Trump’s tendency to double down on stupid and destructive ideas, despite — perhaps because of? — overwhelming evidence of their stupidity and destructiveness.”
A new CNN poll finds 65% of Americans say current economic conditions are good, but that’s down since May, representing the first significant decline in public perception of the economy during Donald Trump’s presidency.
Wall Street Journal: “Shipments of recreational vehicles to dealers have fallen about 20% so far this year, after a 4.1% drop last year, according to data from the RV Industry Association. Multiyear drops in shipments have preceded the last three recessions.”