Perils of Polls
In candidates poll numbers can strike holy terror,
With pundits cheerfully serving as bad-news bearers.
But it’s good to remember,
We’re a long way from November,
And most poll results are well within the margin of error.
Tag: Polls
Trump Holds Slim Lead in Red Florida
2%
A new University of North Florida poll in Florida finds Donald Trump leading Joe Biden, 47% to 45% among likely voters. About 4% said another candidate, 2% said they do not plan on voting, and 3% said they do not know, or refused to answer.
Marist Poll: Biden Leads Trump Nationally
51% to 48%
A new Marist poll finds Joe Biden leading Donald Trump nationally among registered voters, 51% to 48%. In a multi-candidate field, Biden is up by five percentage points against Trump, 43% to 38% among registered voters, followed by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 14%, Cornel West at 2%, and Jill Stein at 2%.Among those who definitely plan to vote, Biden leads Trump 46% to 39% in this same multi-candidate field.
Only Trump Rose in Polls After Second GOP Debate
61%
A new Morning Consult poll finds Donald Trump leading the Republican presidential race with 61%, followed by Ron DeSantis at 13%, Nikki Haley at 7%, Vivek Ramaswamy at 7%, Mike Pence at 5%, Chris Christie at 3%, Tim Scott at 1% and Doug Burgum at 1%. Every candidate except Trump has lost ground since the second debate — and he didn’t even participate.
DeSantis Losing Friends and Alienating People
The Guardian: “By almost every measure, the rightwinger has had another lackluster week on the campaign trail, with ‘clumsy’ missteps in New Hampshire, Texas, California and New York. Now, barely one month after his glitch-ridden launch on Twitter, DeSantis finds himself sinking in the polls, closer to the large field of optimists below him than the twice-indicted, twice-impeached former president who retains a stranglehold over the Republican party.
“‘The more voters learn about him, the less they can stomach the idea of him running the country,’ the online magazine Jezebel concluded.”
Poll Finds Growing Dem Support for Biden Comes on the heels of a Washington Post/ABC News poll that showed Biden trailing Trump by 6 points
Yahoo! News: “Yahoo News and YouGov found that 43% of Americans currently approve of the president’s performance in office while 48% disapprove, a negative margin of just 5 points.
“Among registered voters, the gap was even smaller: 47% approve to 50% disapprove. And Biden (45%) continues to cling to a slight edge over both Trump (43%) and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (42%) on the question of whom voters would choose if the 2024 election were held today…
“Far from collapsing at the official start of his 2024 effort, then, Biden’s job approval and standing against his potential Republican rivals have remained remarkably consistent. If anything, the president has shown some small signs of improvement in recent weeks.”
Biden’s Poll Numbers Get SOTU Bounce
NPR: “After what’s been a bleak several months politically for President Biden, a new NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist survey finds he is seeing a significant boost in his approval ratings across the board following his State of the Union address and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine…
- Overall approval rating jumped to 47%, up 8 points from the NPR poll last month. Presidents don’t generally see much, if any bounce, out of a State of the Union address. Since 1978, there had only been six times when a president saw an approval rating improve 4 points or more following State of the Union addresses, according to the pollsters. Three of those bounces were for former President Bill Clinton.
- Ukraine handling is up 18 points to 52%.
- Coronavirus pandemic handling is now 55%, up 8 points.
- Economic handling up 8 points to 45%.
Two Thirds of Southern Republicans Support Secession
In a recent nationwide survey, the research organization Brightline asked: “Would you support or oppose [your state] seceding from the United States to join a new union with [list of states in new union]?”
The results found that 37 percent of respondents overall supported the secession of their region.
Trump Got the Debate He Wanted, But Will it Help Him?
I’m not a pollster. My observations are just that: the most elemental of research, what I see and hear around me.
The day of the debate, I heard Trump supporters talking about recording the show like it was a ball game their team was likely to win. I heard laughter about Biden. On a neighborhood walk, I saw mostly Trump/Pence signs. They appeared early and continued to outnumber Biden signs.
The day after the debate, I heard no chortling about how well Trump did. In fact no one mentioned the debate at all, the subject just too painful. When I came home, it seemed that my neighbors’ yards filled with Biden signs overnight. No matter where my eyes fell, there was a Biden/Harris sign in view.
The official polls reflecting post-debate sentiment won’t be out for awhile. But I’m cautiously optimistic they’ll back up what I’m seeing and show that Trump is sliding just a bit, losing support every time he opens that tight, pursed mouth to let all that anger out.
Watching Trump live-tweet Biden in person was hard. But it might be what it takes to turn enough Americans away from his nightmare presidency.
