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“On the left, we are now seeing the culmination of a number of movements and events that happened over the last decade: Occupy Wall Street, Black Lives Matter, Sanders’s 2016 campaign, Donald Trump’s election, Trump’s presidency, the emergence of Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and ‘The Squad,’ Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s and Sanders’s 2020 campaigns, and the protests after George Floyd’s death during a police arrest. These events and movements built on one another. For example, it is likely the protests over Floyd’s death were so large, in part, because many of the people attending them had become more passionate about fighting racism in America because of Trump’s presidency. … The result has been a big shift in public opinion on the left — many of the views I noted above were held by few people and even fewer major public figures like politicians as recently as five years ago.”
50.5% to 41.3%
FiveThirtyEight launched its polling averages for the 2020 presidential race: “Biden currently leads Trump 50.5% to 41.3% in national polls, according to our average — a 9.2-point lead. … Biden also leads Trump in swing states such as Michigan, Wisconsin and Arizona — although his lead in many swing states are not as wide as his margin in national polls, suggesting that the Electoral College could once again favor Trump in the event of a close election.”
45.9% to 40.1%
The newly-updated FiveThirtyEight generic congressional ballot tracker shows Democrats leading Republicans, 45.9% to 40.1%.
3 million
“FiveThirtyEight has obtained nearly 3 million tweets from accounts associated with the Internet Research Agency. To our knowledge, it’s the fullest empirical record to date of Russian trolls’ actions on social media, showing a relentless and systematic onslaught.” They’re uploaded to Github so that anyone can explore the data for themselves.
41% to 53%
FiveThirtyEight has averaged the latest approval ratings of five different surveys and came up with an average of 41% approve versus 53% disapprove of Donald Trump’s performance. In none of the polls was the disapproval less than 50%.
77%
The percentage chance that FiveThirtyEight’s latest forecast gives Hillary Clinton to win the election.
