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39%
Gallup finds the share of Americans saying they are Republicans or Republican-leaning independents in the first quarter of 2026, 39%, is at a low dating back to 2015. At the same time, the share of Americans saying they are either Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents has reached 49%, matching highs from the end of 2020 and beginning of 2021.
From 17% to 51%
A new YouGov poll founds just before President Biden’s decision to drop his re-election bid, just 17% of Democrats said they felt optimistic about this year’s Democratic nomination process. After Biden stepped aside, 51% did, a 34-percentage-point increase in the span of just a few days. The shares saying they felt several other positive emotions also increased: excited (+26), confident (+16), inspired (+16), or satisfied (+12).
8.5%
The Cook Political Report shows that the Democratic lead in the U.S. House popular vote for the 2018 midterms is now up to 8.5%. Steve Benen: “For comparison purposes, note that in 2010 – which was widely seen as a GOP ‘wave’ cycle – Republicans won the U.S. House popular vote by 6.6%. In 1994, which was seen as a Republican ‘revolution,’ the GOP won the U.S. House popular vote by 7.1%.”
60 million
First Read: “According to the Cook Political Report’s David Wasserman, the Dem popular vote advantage is now a full 8 points, 53.1% to 45.1%.” “Indeed, Dems are getting close to 60 million votes. In 2008, John McCain got 60 million votes; Mitt Romney got 61 million in 2012; and Trump got 63 million in 2016. It’s stunning that Dems got as many House votes as the GOP presidential nominees in 2008/2012/2016.”
30 to 40
The Cook Political Report has revised its House forecast to a Democratic gain of 30 to 40 seats. It was 25 to 35 last month and could change again before Election Day on Tuesday. Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight gives Democrats a 85.7% chance of taking control of the House.
58% to 32%
A new USA Today/Suffolk poll finds that by a nearly 2-1 margin, 58% to 32%, Americans say they want to elect a Congress that mostly stands up to President Trump, not one that mostly cooperates with him. If the election were held today, those surveyed say they are more likely to vote for the Democratic candidate for Congress than the Republican one by 47% to 32% — a yawning 15 percentage-point advantage.
50% to 39%
A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll finds Democrats leading Republicans in the generic congressional ballot by 11-points, 50% to 39%. NBC News: “The last time Democrats both held a double-digit lead and hit 50 percent on this question in the NBC/WSJ poll was September 2008, right before the party won the White House and picked up a substantial number of House and Senate seats.”
“In 2016 we made the mistake of rationalizing away the prospect of a Trump victory. He was too unorthodox. He couldn’t possibly sustain momentum through the grueling primary campaign. We should not make same mistake in 2018. Sure, a lot can change between now and next November. And, Democrats have a narrow path to 24 seats – even with a big wave or tailwind. But, do not ignore what’s right in front of us. A wave is building. If I were a Republican running for Congress, I’d be taking that more seriously than ever.”
14 points
A new Quinnipiac poll finds Democrats leading Republicans in the generic congressional ballot by 14 points, 52% to 38%.
7 points
A new Politico/Morning Consult survey finds Democrats lead Republicans by 7 percentage points on the generic congressional ballot, 44% to 37%, with 19% still undecided.
