Democratic Popular Vote Lead Continues to Grow


The Cook Political Report shows that the Democratic lead in the U.S. House popular vote for the 2018 midterms is now up to 8.5%. Steve Benen: “For comparison purposes, note that in 2010 – which was widely seen as a GOP ‘wave’ cycle – Republicans won the U.S. House popular vote by 6.6%. In 1994, which was seen as a Republican ‘revolution,’ the GOP won the U.S. House popular vote by 7.1%.”

Democrats Had Nearly 60 Million Votes in Midterms

60 million

First Read: “According to the Cook Political Report’s David Wasserman, the Dem popular vote advantage is now a full 8 points, 53.1% to 45.1%.” “Indeed, Dems are getting close to 60 million votes. In 2008, John McCain got 60 million votes; Mitt Romney got 61 million in 2012; and Trump got 63 million in 2016. It’s stunning that Dems got as many House votes as the GOP presidential nominees in 2008/2012/2016.”

Democrats’ Lead Almost Double in Generic Ballot

58% to 32%

A new USA Today/Suffolk poll finds that by a nearly 2-1 margin, 58% to 32%, Americans say they want to elect a Congress that mostly stands up to President Trump, not one that mostly cooperates with him. If the election were held today, those surveyed say they are more likely to vote for the Democratic candidate for Congress than the Republican one by 47% to 32% — a yawning 15 percentage-point advantage.

Over Half Favor Democrats in Generic Poll

50% to 39%

A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll finds Democrats leading Republicans in the generic congressional ballot by 11-points, 50% to 39%. NBC News: “The last time Democrats both held a double-digit lead and hit 50 percent on this question in the NBC/WSJ poll was September 2008, right before the party won the White House and picked up a substantial number of House and Senate seats.”

The Coming Wave

“In 2016 we made the mistake of rationalizing away the prospect of a Trump victory. He was too unorthodox. He couldn’t possibly sustain momentum through the grueling primary campaign. We should not make same mistake in 2018. Sure, a lot can change between now and next November. And, Democrats have a narrow path to 24 seats – even with a big wave or tailwind. But, do not ignore what’s right in front of us. A wave is building. If I were a Republican running for Congress, I’d be taking that more seriously than ever.”

Amy Walter

Schumer Positive on Dem’s Future

We’re going to have a Democratic generation. President Obama helped create it. But it’s just where America’s moving demographically, ideologically and in every way. We’ll have a mandate to get something done.

— Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) told Politico he “is feeling good enough about the battle for Senate control to essentially predict he’ll be majority leader next year. Not only that, the veteran New York Democrat believes his party is on the cusp of something much bigger: An era of electoral dominance.”