Huffington Post Buys Pollster.com

NYT’s Media Decoder:

The Huffington Post is venturing into the wonky but increasingly popular territory of opinion poll analysis, purchasing Pollster.com, a widely respected aggregator of poll data that has been a major draw for the Web site of The National Journal.

The purchase is something of a coup for The Huffington Post, which has been making a more aggressive push into political journalism ahead of the midterm elections in November.

“It’s going to beef up our political coverage,” said Arianna Huffington, the Web site’s editor in chief and founder. “Polling, whether we like it or not, is a big part of how we communicate about politics. And with this, we’ll be able to do it in a deeper way. We’ll be able to both aggregate polls, point out the limitations of them and demand more transparency.”

Exciting news for poll geeks.

Barton’s ‘Shakedown’ in BP Apology Echoed Stance of Committee of 117 Out of 178 House GOP Reps

Republican Study Committee photos of members including Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., second from left in first photo and with arms folded at tea bag rally in second photo
Republican Study Committee photos of members from its website, including Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., in first photo and with arms folded at tea bag rally in second photo
Despite his claims otherwise, Rep. Joe Barton, R-Texas, was not speaking only for himself when he apologized to BP CEO Tony Hayward during a hearing on BP’s Gulf oil disaster on Thursday.

The Obama administration “appears not to respect fundamental American principles.”
-RSC press release

On Wednesday, the day before the hearing, the Republican Study Committee, which claims as members 117 of the 178 of the most partisan Republicans in the House — including Barton Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota, Virginia Foxx of North Carolina, and Virginia’s Rep. Eric Cantor, who will likely become majority leader if Republicans win control of the House in November, as well as Barton — issued a press release in which they smeared the Obama administration by inferring that the Obama White House is un-American and referring to the BP Gulf victims’ fund as a “Chicago-style shakedown”:

[…]

Fox News: GOP in Congress Has Lowest Approval of D.C. Politicians – Even Among Republicans

I missed this Fox News poll from last month:

Democrats in Congress continue to garner better ratings than Republicans. Some 37 percent of voters approve of the job Democrats in Congress are doing, little changed from 36 percent about six months ago. For Congressional Republicans, 31 percent approve, up slightly from 29 percent.

Fully 70 percent of Democrats approve of the job their representatives are doing on Capitol Hill, compared to 52 percent of Republicans who approve of theirs. About twice as many Republicans (40 percent) disapprove of the job their party is doing in Congress as Democrats disapprove of their party (19 percent).

A majority of independents disapproves of Democrats (60 percent) and Republicans in Congress (66 percent).

The same poll found that Pres. Obama has a 53 percent favorable rating overall, including a 91 percent favorability among Democrats.

Poll: Bad News for GOP, Rep. Barton – 82% Approve of BP’s $20 Bil Victims’ Fund

If it struck you as odd that House Speaker-to-Be John Boehner and other top Republicans went into a full-bore panic over Rep. Joe Barton’s apology to BP on Thursday — normally they’d be high-fivin’ over Barton’s smearing the $20 billion victims’ fund the president brokered with BP as a “shakedown” — the answer may lie in a poll that came out the same day:

The poll’s Thursday release comes as top BP executives testify in front of Congress. At the hearing, Rep. Joe Barton, ranking Republican on the House Energy Committee, defended BP and slammed the White House for insisting that BP place $20 billion in an escrow fund to help compensate those affected by the oil disaster.

“I am ashamed of what happened at the White House yesterday,” said Barton at the hearing. “I think it is a tragedy of the first proportion that a private corporation would be subjected to what I would characterize as a shakedown. In this case a $20 billion dollar shakedown.”

But according to the poll, Americans disagree with Barton. Eighty-two percent approve of the creating of a fund of billions of dollars to compensate workers and businesses affected by the spill.

The CNN article on the poll offers another example of how the Beltway media outlets are in the bag for Republicans this year. CNN buried the lead, ignoring the fact that Republicans are on the wrong side of this issue by a huge margin — just 18 percent of Americans agree with Rep. Barton and and 115 of his 178 House colleagues who believe the victims’ fund is a bad thing — choosing instead to focus on the finding that approval of Pres. Obama’s performance relative to the crisis had dropped 5 points: “Rise in disapproval of Obama handling of oil spill.” This despite the fact that president’s overall approval remained constant at 50 percent.

“Liberal” media — riiight.

Poll: Plurality Now Supports Health-Care Law

AP-Gfk poll:

The nation remains divided, with 45 percent in favor and 42 percent opposed to the president’s signature domestic accomplishment.

Still, the shift in public sentiment was significant. Opposition to the overhaul increased after Congress passed it in March. And last month, supporters were outnumbered 39 percent to 46 percent. But the latest survey found the strongest backing for the health care plan since the AP-GfK poll began asking in September…

The poll found support increased since May among men (from 36 percent to 46 percent), people in their prime working years (from 35 percent to 49 percent among 30-49 year-olds) and Republicans (from 8 percent to 17 percent.) The uptick among Republicans comes even as party leaders are calling for the law’s repeal.

The changes coincide with a concerted effort by the Obama administration, congressional Democrats and their allies to sell the immediate benefits of the law.

Poll: Democrats on Track to Lose Control of House – Get Used to It Now: ‘Speaker Boehner’

Speaker-to-Be Boehner
Speaker-to-Be Boehner
Yesterday, Buck found a slight uptick in approval of Democrats in congressional races in a new Public Policy Polling survey. According to PPI, Democrats are preferred on a generic ballot, 43-41 — an improvement from March, when Republicans were preferred 46-43.

But now a new poll of specific House battleground districts conducted by Democrat Stan Greenberg and Republican Glen Bolger for NPR suggests that Republicans are well within strking distance of regaining control of the House:

For this poll, Bolger and Greenberg chose the districts where incumbents are considered the most vulnerable, and, in the case of open seats, the ones most likely to switch party control in November. Sixty are currently held by Democrats — many of whom won these seats even when voters in the same district preferred Republican John McCain for president in 2008. The other 10 districts are the flip side — held by Republicans in the House, even though their voters went for Barack Obama in 2008.

These are this year’s swing seats — the political terrain where the battle for control of the House of Representatives will be won or lost. In this battleground, voters are choosing Republicans over Democrats 49 percent to 41 percent.

Another dire indicator for Democrats is that Pres. Obama is unpopular in the battleground districts, where his disapproval rate is 54-40, according to the pollsters.

Separately, here’s yet more evidence that MSNBC’s White House correspondent Chuck Todd is fully in the bag for the GOP this year. He promoted this NPR poll showing Dems in trouble on his aptly named “Rundown” show this morning, while ignoring the PPI poll results showing improvement in Dem chances.

AR Sen: Republican Leads Halter by 11 Points, Lincoln By 20

Politics Daily:

Lt. Gov. Bill Halter has taken a small lead over Sen. Blanche Lincoln in their runoff race for the Democratic senate nomination in Arkansas but both trail Republican Rep. John Boozman in general election match-ups, with Lincoln furthest behind, according to a Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll conducted May 24-26.

Halter is ahead of Lincoln 47 percent to 44 percent with 9 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. The two were forced into a June 8 runoff because neither notched 50 percent in the primary, where Lincoln edged Halter 44.3 percent to 42.5 percent.

In the general election match-ups, Boozman leads Lincoln 58 percent to 38 percent with 4 percent undecided. He gets 90 percent support from fellow Republicans compared to 73 percent for Lincoln among Democrats, and leads her among independents by 65 percent to 29 percent with 6 percent undecided.

Boozman leads Halter 53 percent to 42 percent with 12 percent undecided. Their respective percentages of support among members of their own parties are about the same in the match-up with Lincoln, but Boozman’s edge among independents is a little lower, at 58 percent to 35 percent.

CN Sen: Despite Gaffe on Vietnam Serivce, Blumenthal Leads GOP Rival by 25 Points

Boston Globe:

About a week after acknowledging he “misspoke” about his military service during the Vietnam era, a new poll released Thursday shows Democratic Senate candidate Richard Blumenthal remains popular among Connecticut voters and maintains a double-digit lead in the race.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, conducted May 24-25, shows Blumenthal leading the endorsed Republican Senate candidate, former wrestling executive Linda McMahon, by a 56 percent to 31 percent margin in the race to fill the seat being vacated by the retiring Sen. Chris Dodd.

Blumenthal had led McMahon 61 percent to 28 percent in a March 17 survey.

“It looks like Connecticut voters forgive Attorney General Richard Blumenthal, or feel that there is nothing to forgive in the Vietnam service flap,” said poll director Douglas Schwartz. “While he has taken a hit with voters, his poll numbers were so high to begin with that he still maintains a commanding lead over Linda McMahon.”

Gallup: Gay Marriage Support at 44%-53% – Still Twice As Popular Today than Interracial Marriage Was When It Was Legalized in 1967

Chart source

The trend toward a national consensus in favor of gay marriage remains in play, a new Gallup survey finds — and while a slight majority of Americans remain opposed to gay marriage today, it is still more than twice as popular now than interracial marriage was when the Supreme Court legalized it in 1967.

In the first Gallup poll on interracial marriage taken after the Supreme Court’s 1967 ruling on Loving v. Virginia that states could no longer prevent interracial couples from marrying, just 20 percent of Americans favored mixed-race marriages. Seventy-two percent were opposed.

The latest Gallup poll on gay marriage finds a nine point gap between opponents and supporters:

[…]

Poll Reveals All You Need to Know about Tea Baggers: 57% Still Support George Bush – And, Yes, Their Rage Is Fueled by Racism, Fox News

art-buprsh-miss-me-yetIn the CBS/New York Times poll that came out this week, one response in particular provides definitive insight into the tea bagger mindset: 57 percent of self-described tea party supporters have a favorable opinion of George W. Bush.

This is the same George Bush who left office with 21 percent approval — in fact, his approval level had been below 50 percent since Jan.16, 2005 — by far the longest period of disapproval for any president since polling presidential approval began in the 1930s. Today, while only 4 percent of those polled said they had attended a rally or donated money to tea party organizers, about 18 percent said they agreed with tea party anti-establishment ideals. This 18 percent of Americans who support the tea parties and the 21 percent who supported Bush when he left the White House are similar to the 20 percent or so of Americans also supported Richard Nixon when he resigned in disgrace. In other words, tea baggers are, at least statistically, nothing new. They represent the rock-hard right-wing base that has been a factor in United States politics for generations.

The other 80 percent of Americans remember — nor will likely ever forget — that George Bush had not a single accomplishment of historical significance during the eight long years he was president. Quite the opposite, in fact. Bush, Cheney et al lied about the pretexts for invading Iraq, a fact that makes the wasted blood of thousands of American soldiers and tens of thousands of innocent Iraqi families even more tragic — not to mention the billions upon billions of taxpayer dollars needlessly drained for the treasury at the very moment that the economic collapse was looming. But it was Bush’s ineptitude — and baldfaced lying about it — in addressing the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina that finally forced normal Americans to recognize George W. Bush for what he was: Worst. President. Ever. His approval ratings never recovered after that debacle.

And since it was health care reform that agitated the tea baggers into spittle-spewing rage, let’s not forget that, under Bush, American taxpayers provided free universal health care to 30 million or so Iraqis while 45 million Americans had none.

It speaks volumes that it’s this barely articulate, incurious aristocratic bully that tea baggers voted for — twice — and still support to this day. How can they be so blind to this reality? Here’s how: In the poll 63 percent of tea partiers said they restrict their news consumption to Fox News. Only in Fox’s alternate reality can you be outraged over the Obama administration’s efforts to pull the nation back from the brink of economic collapse while ignoring the fact that the person most responsible for the Bush Recession is, well, George W. Bush.

Another prime example of the influence of Fox propaganda: A whopping 64 percent of tea baggers believe Pres. Obama has raised taxes on most Americans. As CBS noted in their coverage of this poll result: “[The] vast majority of Americans [95 percent] got a tax cut under the Obama administration.”

One unsurprising result from the poll is that tea baggers love Fox News’ most popular propagandists. They approve of Sarah Palin by 66 percent and Glenn Beck by 59 percent. This adoration of Beck, in particular, helps explain another aspect of the poll: Like Beck, tea baggers loathe the U.S. president:

Eighty-eight percent disapprove of President Obama’s performance on the job, compared to 40 percent of Americans overall. While half of Americans approve of Mr. Obama’s job performance, just seven percent of Tea Party supporters say he is doing a good job.

Asked to volunteer what they don’t like about Mr. Obama, the top answer, offered by 19 percent of Tea Party supporters, was that they just don’t like him. Eleven percent said he is turning the country more toward socialism, ten percent cited his health care reform efforts, and nine percent said he is dishonest.

Seventy-seven percent describe Mr. Obama as “very liberal,” compared to 31 percent of Americans overall. Fifty-six percent say the president’s policies favor the poor, compared to 27 percent of Americans overall.

The fact that 56 percent of tea baggers say Pres. Obama’s policies favor the poor is telling. While only about 13 percent of Americans are black, a great many white people labor under the misperception that most poor people are black. More about tea baggers’ views on race below.

Ninety-two percent of Tea Party supporters believe President Obama’s policies are moving the country toward socialism. Fifty-two percent of Americans overall share that belief.

Asked what socialism means, roughly half of Tea Party supporters volunteered government ownership or control, far more than any other answer. Eleven percent cited taking away rights or limiting freedom, and eight percent said it means the redistribution of wealth.

Thirty percent of Tea Party supporters believe Mr. Obama was born in another country, despite ample evidence to the contrary. Another 29 percent say they don’t know. Twenty percent of Americans overall, one in five, believe the president was not born in the United States.

Not surprisingly, the poll found that tea baggers hold deep-seated racist views:

Fifty-two percent believe too much has been made of the problems facing black people. Far fewer Americans overall — 28 percent — believe as much. Among non-Tea Party whites, the percentage who say too much attention has been paid to the problems of black people is 23 percent.

A majority of Tea Party suppers believe the Obama administration treats both blacks and whites the same way. But one in four believe the administration favors blacks over whites, an opinion shared by just 11 percent of Americans overall and seven percent of non-Tea Party whites.

As to demographics, no surprise here. The poll that most tea baggers are middle-aged, white and Southern:

Eighteen percent of Americans identify as Tea Party supporters. The vast majority of them — 89 percent — are white. Just one percent is black.

They tend to skew older: Three in four are 45 years old or older, including 29 percent who are 65 plus. They are also more likely to be men (59 percent) than women (41 percent).

More than one in three (36 percent) hails from the South, far more than any other region. Twenty-five percent come from the West, 22 percent from the Midwest, and 18 percent from the northeast.

A lot of the coverage of this poll focuses on the surprising result that self-identified tea baggers claim to be wealthier and more educated than would otherwise be expected from people who are so easily manipulated and duped into believing facts that are easily disproved. The best plausible explanation for this apparent outlier is, as Rep. Joe Wilson of South Carolina, a tea bagger hero, might say:

They lied!