Tag: Polls

Dems Building Firewall in California? Brown, Boxer Leading – U.S. House Generic Poll Gives Dems 13 Point Advantage Statewide

Jon Ponder

In the race for California governor, Democrat Jerry Brown, the state’s attorney general and former governor, has led billionaire former eBay executive Meg Whitman slightly in three out of four recent polls and the fourth was a tie. In the Senate race, Democrat Barbara Boxer has seen her lead over the Republican candidate, former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, grow incrementally in three recent polls.

Results from the new Los Angeles Times/USC poll out today show that, in the race for governor, Brown is ahead by 5 points, 49 percent to 44 percent. Whitman has spent $120 million of her money on her campaign, so far, while Brown has only spent what amounts to a fraction of that.

While generic polls on House races nationwide show the parties even or Republicans a few points ahead, in California Dems lead in the generic by 13 points, with 51 percent for Democrats and 38 percent for Republicans.

The same poll found that Boxer’s lead over Fiorina appears to be expanding when compared with other recent polls. In the Times poll, Boxer is ahead by 8 points, 51 percent to 43 percent. (Boxer’s 51 percent represents the first time any of the four candidates for the two big offices has been over 50 percent in the past few weeks.)

A SurveyUSA poll [PDF] conducted on Sept. 19 for a consortium of local TV news channels statewide, including KABC in Los Angeles, found Brown with 46 percent and Whitman with 43 percent.

The same poll put Boxer at 49 percent and Fiorina at 43 percent — the same result Fiorina received in the new Times poll. (This was a reversal from the previous SurveyUSA poll, which had Fiorina in the lead 48-46.)

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Poll: Congressional GOP Approval at 20%, Statistical Tie in House Generic – Enthusiam Gap Among INDs Could Spell Trouble for GOP

Jon Ponder

In spite of the media’s set-in-stone narrative about the 2010 midterms that Republicans are ascendant, a new CBS poll finds that just 20 percent of voters approve of the job Republicans in Congress are doing, while over two-thirds — 68 percent — disapprove.

The depressed enthusiasm among independents is significant because they tend to lean Republican in red states, and nearly all of the 70 or so contested Democratic House seats are in districts where McCain-Palin won in 2008.

Conversely, approval of the Democrats’ performance in Congress is at 30 percent, with 58 percent disapproving.

The poll found a statistically even split in the generic House race question, with 40 percent saying they would vote for the generic Republican and 38 percent saying they’d vote for the Democrat.

Pundits have also been flogging away at the enthusiasm gap between Republicans and Democrats — but if you factor in those who say they are “more enthusiastic” with those who say they are equally as enthusiastic now as they were in 2008, the gap narrows to 6 points.

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Majority Opposes Boehner’s Billionaire Bailout – Wants Bush’s Tax Cuts for the Rich to Expire

Jon Ponder

A new Gallup poll finds that 44 percent of Americans oppose the “billionaire bailout” — meaning they want George Bush’s temporary tax cuts for everyone who makes under $250,000 to be extended, while returning the tax rate on the wealthy to the Clinton-era rate.

Thirty-seven percent favor House Republican Leader John Boehner’s demand that all Bush tax cuts be extended, including the breaks for the super-rich.

Just 15 percent want all the tax cuts to expire, regardless of income level.

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NBC Poll Also Had Results That Bust Media’s Pro-GOP Election Narrative, Including 43% Split on Who Should Run Congress

Jon Ponder

If you listen to cable news and read corporate-media political sites, it’s all over for the Democrats. Why bother waiting for the vote on Nov. 2? Dems should just quietly step aside and let Speaker John Boehner and the Republicans move in, drapes and all, to their new digs at the Capitol.

The NBC poll found that 58 percent falsely believe Boehner and the Republicans have an economic plan that is different from their policies under Bush. What Democrats must show voters is that, simply put, Boehnernomics is just Bushonomics warmed over.

Case in point was, as we noted yesterday, the five days that the media flogged away at a Gallup generic congressional poll that gave the GOP a 10 point advantage — a first for either party in the history of the poll. Today, in the wake of a new edition yesterday of the same poll showing that the GOP’s 10 point lead has vanished — the parties are tied at 46 percent — discussion of the Gallup generic poll has also disappeared. Funny how that works.

At TPMDC, Evan McMorris-Santoro has a piece up on yesterday’s sudden turnaround in the Gallup generic under the headline, “Narrative-Busting New Gallup Poll Excites Dems Briefly”:

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Breaking! GOP’s Much Ballyhooed 10 Point Lead in Gallup Poll Disappears – Dems, GOP Tied

Jon Ponder

graph-gallup-generic-090710-tie

For the past umpteen news cycles, corporate media has been hammering results of the previous edition of the Gallup congressional generic poll which gave the GOP a 10 point lead over Dems — the first-ever 10-point spread, we were told. A strong lead for the GOP fits the media’s current carved-in-stone narrative that voters are ready to return Republicans to power in November.

Over the Labor Day holiday, the GOP’s 10 point lead warranted a mention in just about every story on the midterms, in newspapers, online and on cable — particularly on supposedly liberal MSNBC. Well, look how the worm has turned now, via Gallup:

Republicans and Democrats are tied at 46 percent among registered voters in Gallup’s weekly tracking of congressional voting preferences, marking a shift after five consecutive weeks in which the Republicans held the advantage.

Sure, the worm can turn again, but for now at least this thing ain’t over. And it’s possible — just maybe — that independent voters are starting to realize that sending arsonists in to put out the fire they set may not be a good idea.

Most Americans Who Believe Obama is a Muslim Got It from the Media

Trish

6 in 10

— Number of Americans who mistakenly believe Pres. Obama is a Muslim who also report they were told this by the media, with 16 percent (the largest segment) attributing it to television. Another 11 percent say they figured it out themselves from the president’s “behavior and words.”

More Americans Believe Obama is a Muslim

Trish

1 in 5

–The number of Americans (18 percent) who mistakenly think Pres. Obama is a Muslim, according to a Pew Research poll conducted before his comments on the Islamic community center in downtown Manhattan. A Time Magazine poll taken after his comments showed 25 percent of Americans now think Obama is a Muslim.