In a recent nationwide survey, the research organization Brightline asked: “Would you support or oppose [your state] seceding from the United States to join a new union with [list of states in new union]?”
The results found that 37 percent of respondents overall supported the secession of their region.
Does it feel like something changed at that first presidential debate of 2020? Putting aside that it was exactly the kind of debate that the year 2020 deserved, it felt like during all that bellowing, bullying, heckling, and lying, Trump pushed a few more voters away.
I’m not a pollster. My observations are just that: the most elemental of research, what I see and hear around me.
The day of the debate, I heard Trump supporters talking about recording the show like it was a ball game their team was likely to win. I heard laughter about Biden. On a neighborhood walk, I saw mostly Trump/Pence signs. They appeared early and continued to outnumber Biden signs.
The day after the debate, I heard no chortling about how well Trump did. In fact no one mentioned the debate at all, the subject just too painful. When I came home, it seemed that my neighbors’ yards filled with Biden signs overnight. No matter where my eyes fell, there was a Biden/Harris sign in view.
The official polls reflecting post-debate sentiment won’t be out for awhile. But I’m cautiously optimistic they’ll back up what I’m seeing and show that Trump is sliding just a bit, losing support every time he opens that tight, pursed mouth to let all that anger out.
Watching Trump live-tweet Biden in person was hard. But it might be what it takes to turn enough Americans away from his nightmare presidency.
After a new CNN poll came out showing Donald Trump trailing Joe Biden by 14 percentage points, the president announced he has retained Republican pollster John McLaughlin to write a memo denouncing the poll. However, Jonathan Chait points out McLaughlin is “a laughingstock within the profession.” McLaughlin has a FiveThirtyEight pollster rating of C/D and is one of the lowest-rated polls in their database.
Despite news coverage that suggests a broad-based movement advocating reopening businesses across the country, a new AP-NORC poll found that just 12% support early reopening, while 87 percent are either satisfied with the current lockdown restrictions or favor tighter controls.
Axios: “Public support for President Trump’s impeachment is higher than it was for Richard Nixon and Bill Clinton when the House launched impeachment inquiries against them.”
Why it matters: Support for impeachment of Trump is still less than half the country — 44% in the Monmouth University poll shown here; 47% in CNN. And the polling reflects a 50-50 country. But the Ukraine scandal is pushing the numbers up.”
“The Pew Research Center reported Wednesday that the response rate for its phone polls last year fell to just 6 percent — meaning pollsters could only complete interviews with 6 percent of the households in their samples. It continues the long-term decline in response rates, which had leveled off earlier this decade.”
On Dec. 21, Public Policy Polling sent out a series of tweets with results from recent polling of normal American voters. As the pollster put it, “We know people get sick of hearing what Trump voters think about things, so here's a thread on what supporters of the popular vote winner think about things…”
Here’s what PPP found in its poll of people who voted for the candidate who won the most votes in the 2016 election:
Vox: “Lyndon Johnson and Gerald Ford are excluded from this chart, as their first Decembers in office didn’t come after an electoral victory, and didn’t amount to almost a full year as president. (Still, both their approval ratings were above 35 percent, though Ford’s was the lowest — at 42 percent in December 1974 — after taking office in August following Nixon’s resignation.)”
“Madison Cawthorn can invoke coming bloodshed, and Paul Gosar can flirt with white nationalism, and they’re signing a letter asking to have me kicked out of the caucus. This is how far the Republican Party has fallen. They call me a RINO but I haven’t changed. The Republican Party has changed into an authoritarian Trump organization. They’re the RINOs. Trump is a RINO.”
“I’ve been here for cliffs and crises and wars, and this is going to be the biggest mashup we’ve ever had since I’ve been here — with the debt limit, with a government shutdown, with reconciliation and with infrastructure. And I have no idea how it all works out.”
“I’m not an alcoholic. I’m a functioning… I probably function more effectively than 90 percent of the population.”
He added: “I don’t think I’ve ever done an interview drunk. I have … sometimes … I mean, I drink normally. I like Scotch, I drink Scotch.”
— Rudy Giuliani denied having a drinking problem in an interview with NBC New York.
A new Pew Research survey finds that Americans who relied most on former President Donald Trump and the White House coronavirus task force for Covid-19 news in the early days of the pandemic are now among those least likely to have been vaccinated against the virus.
This reinforces criticism of the news media for running Trump’s briefings live.
A new Pew Research poll finds President Biden’s approval rate upside down at 44% to 53%, a sharp decline since July. “There also are signs that the public is generally becoming more pessimistic: Just 26% say they are satisfied with the way things are going in the country, down from 33% six months ago. And while views of current economic conditions remain lackluster – 26% rate them as excellent or good – expectations for the economy over the next year have become more negative than they were in the spring.”
Daily Beast: “In western South Dakota’s Meade County, more than one in three COVID-19 tests are currently returning positive, and over the last three weeks, seven-day average case counts have increased by 3,400 percent. This exponential growth in cases is likely attributable to the 81st Sturgis Motorcycle Rally, which drew an estimated half a million visitors to Meade County and its environs from Aug. 6 through 15, potentially acting as a superspreader event.”
New York Times: “More people in Florida are catching the coronavirus, being hospitalized and dying of Covid-19 now than at any previous point in the pandemic, underscoring the perils of limiting public health measures as the Delta variant rips through the state. … This week, 227 virus deaths were being reported each day in Florida, on average, as of Tuesday, a record for the state and by far the most in the United States right now.” Washington Post: “More than 17,000 people are currently hospitalized with Covid-19 in Florida, which has the most hospitalizations for Covid-19 of any state in the country.”