Tag: Polls

GOP ‘Party of No’ Gambit Backfires — Voter Approval of Republicans at an All-Time Low

Jon Ponder

From the moment Pres. Obama took office, Sen. Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio) and the rest of the GOP leadership in Congress have engaged in a high-risk, gridlock-on-steroids strategy — a level of obstructionism that is unparalleled in U.S. history, particularly including a record-breaking number of filibusters in the Senate.

How bad is it for congressional Republicans? They’re even lagging behind Sarah Palin, whose approval rate is just 29 percent.

Their “party of no” strategy has been effective in two ways. First, they have used obstructionism to weaken legislation to protect the profits of their corporate donors. They have done this by sucker-punching the president and the Democrats on every major bill — first by threatening to vote no unless the particulars of the legislation were changed to benefit corporations and then by voting resoundingly against the bill anyway, despite getting everything they demanded.

That second part — the lockstep voting, gridlock-on-steroids tactic — was intended to slow things down unnecessarily as a way to frustrate voters who, more than anything, wanted to see progress in solving the multiple crises the country is facing. This was an especially neat trick because attentive voters were surely aware that the crises were caused by these same Republican senators and House members rubberstamping the Bush anti-regulatory, anti middle-class agenda when they controlled Congress the last time.

Frustrating voters with gridlock is a tried-and-true tactic the party out of power can use to drive up the negatives of the party in power. It has always worked as a zero-sum game in our calcified two-party system. When voters’ approval of one party goes down, approval of the other party goes up.

But it hasn’t worked out that way this time. While the Republicans’ “party of no” strategy has been effective in poisoning the well — the Democrats’ negatives are way up — according to the new NBC/Wall St. Journal poll, the GOP’s uber-obstructionism appears to have backfired. Big time:

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Poll: Schwarzenegger Approval Stalls at 19% – Even Lower Than Bush And Palin

Jon Ponder

And even 19 percent approval seems high:

Casting a shadow over [GOP gubernatorial candidate Meg] Whitman’s campaign is Arnold Schwarzenegger’s continuing status as the least popular Governor in the country. 71 percent of voters in the state disapprove of the job he’s doing and only 19 percent give him good marks. Generally when you have an outgoing Governor that strongly disliked you’re not going to be inclined to replace him with another person in the same party.

Schwarzenegger is now even less popular in California than George Bush and Sarah Palin — arguably the other two most famous Republicans — are nationally:

According to [a NBC/Wall St. Journal poll earlier this month], just 29 percent view [Palin] favorably, compared with 43 percent who view her unfavorably (not far from George W. Bush’s 29 percent-50 percent score). In addition, the poll shows that 52 percent have problems with a candidate who has been endorsed by Palin, versus only 25 percent who are comfortable with that attribute. We’ve said it before and we’ll say it again: Palin is more of a political celebrity than a political figure.

As I said last month, Schwarzenegger’s career as governor should be a cautionary tale about electing novices in times of crisis.

Huffington Post Buys Pollster.com

Jon Ponder

NYT’s Media Decoder:

The Huffington Post is venturing into the wonky but increasingly popular territory of opinion poll analysis, purchasing Pollster.com, a widely respected aggregator of poll data that has been a major draw for the Web site of The National Journal.

The purchase is something of a coup for The Huffington Post, which has been making a more aggressive push into political journalism ahead of the midterm elections in November.

“It’s going to beef up our political coverage,” said Arianna Huffington, the Web site’s editor in chief and founder. “Polling, whether we like it or not, is a big part of how we communicate about politics. And with this, we’ll be able to do it in a deeper way. We’ll be able to both aggregate polls, point out the limitations of them and demand more transparency.”

Exciting news for poll geeks.

Barton’s ‘Shakedown’ in BP Apology Echoed Stance of Committee of 117 Out of 178 House GOP Reps

Jon Ponder

Republican Study Committee photos of members including Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., second from left in first photo and with arms folded at tea bag rally in second photo
Republican Study Committee photos of members from its website, including Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., in first photo and with arms folded at tea bag rally in second photo
Despite his claims otherwise, Rep. Joe Barton, R-Texas, was not speaking only for himself when he apologized to BP CEO Tony Hayward during a hearing on BP’s Gulf oil disaster on Thursday.

The Obama administration “appears not to respect fundamental American principles.”
-RSC press release

On Wednesday, the day before the hearing, the Republican Study Committee, which claims as members 117 of the 178 of the most partisan Republicans in the House — including Barton Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota, Virginia Foxx of North Carolina, and Virginia’s Rep. Eric Cantor, who will likely become majority leader if Republicans win control of the House in November, as well as Barton — issued a press release in which they smeared the Obama administration by inferring that the Obama White House is un-American and referring to the BP Gulf victims’ fund as a “Chicago-style shakedown”:

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Fox News: GOP in Congress Has Lowest Approval of D.C. Politicians – Even Among Republicans

Jon Ponder

I missed this Fox News poll from last month:

Democrats in Congress continue to garner better ratings than Republicans. Some 37 percent of voters approve of the job Democrats in Congress are doing, little changed from 36 percent about six months ago. For Congressional Republicans, 31 percent approve, up slightly from 29 percent.

Fully 70 percent of Democrats approve of the job their representatives are doing on Capitol Hill, compared to 52 percent of Republicans who approve of theirs. About twice as many Republicans (40 percent) disapprove of the job their party is doing in Congress as Democrats disapprove of their party (19 percent).

A majority of independents disapproves of Democrats (60 percent) and Republicans in Congress (66 percent).

The same poll found that Pres. Obama has a 53 percent favorable rating overall, including a 91 percent favorability among Democrats.

Poll: Bad News for GOP, Rep. Barton – 82% Approve of BP’s $20 Bil Victims’ Fund

Jon Ponder

If it struck you as odd that House Speaker-to-Be John Boehner and other top Republicans went into a full-bore panic over Rep. Joe Barton’s apology to BP on Thursday — normally they’d be high-fivin’ over Barton’s smearing the $20 billion victims’ fund the president brokered with BP as a “shakedown” — the answer may lie in a poll that came out the same day:

The poll’s Thursday release comes as top BP executives testify in front of Congress. At the hearing, Rep. Joe Barton, ranking Republican on the House Energy Committee, defended BP and slammed the White House for insisting that BP place $20 billion in an escrow fund to help compensate those affected by the oil disaster.

“I am ashamed of what happened at the White House yesterday,” said Barton at the hearing. “I think it is a tragedy of the first proportion that a private corporation would be subjected to what I would characterize as a shakedown. In this case a $20 billion dollar shakedown.”

But according to the poll, Americans disagree with Barton. Eighty-two percent approve of the creating of a fund of billions of dollars to compensate workers and businesses affected by the spill.

The CNN article on the poll offers another example of how the Beltway media outlets are in the bag for Republicans this year. CNN buried the lead, ignoring the fact that Republicans are on the wrong side of this issue by a huge margin — just 18 percent of Americans agree with Rep. Barton and and 115 of his 178 House colleagues who believe the victims’ fund is a bad thing — choosing instead to focus on the finding that approval of Pres. Obama’s performance relative to the crisis had dropped 5 points: “Rise in disapproval of Obama handling of oil spill.” This despite the fact that president’s overall approval remained constant at 50 percent.

“Liberal” media — riiight.

Poll: Plurality Now Supports Health-Care Law

Jon Ponder

AP-Gfk poll:

The nation remains divided, with 45 percent in favor and 42 percent opposed to the president’s signature domestic accomplishment.

Still, the shift in public sentiment was significant. Opposition to the overhaul increased after Congress passed it in March. And last month, supporters were outnumbered 39 percent to 46 percent. But the latest survey found the strongest backing for the health care plan since the AP-GfK poll began asking in September…

The poll found support increased since May among men (from 36 percent to 46 percent), people in their prime working years (from 35 percent to 49 percent among 30-49 year-olds) and Republicans (from 8 percent to 17 percent.) The uptick among Republicans comes even as party leaders are calling for the law’s repeal.

The changes coincide with a concerted effort by the Obama administration, congressional Democrats and their allies to sell the immediate benefits of the law.

Poll: Democrats on Track to Lose Control of House – Get Used to It Now: ‘Speaker Boehner’

Jon Ponder

Speaker-to-Be Boehner
Speaker-to-Be Boehner
Yesterday, Buck found a slight uptick in approval of Democrats in congressional races in a new Public Policy Polling survey. According to PPI, Democrats are preferred on a generic ballot, 43-41 — an improvement from March, when Republicans were preferred 46-43.

But now a new poll of specific House battleground districts conducted by Democrat Stan Greenberg and Republican Glen Bolger for NPR suggests that Republicans are well within strking distance of regaining control of the House:

For this poll, Bolger and Greenberg chose the districts where incumbents are considered the most vulnerable, and, in the case of open seats, the ones most likely to switch party control in November. Sixty are currently held by Democrats — many of whom won these seats even when voters in the same district preferred Republican John McCain for president in 2008. The other 10 districts are the flip side — held by Republicans in the House, even though their voters went for Barack Obama in 2008.

These are this year’s swing seats — the political terrain where the battle for control of the House of Representatives will be won or lost. In this battleground, voters are choosing Republicans over Democrats 49 percent to 41 percent.

Another dire indicator for Democrats is that Pres. Obama is unpopular in the battleground districts, where his disapproval rate is 54-40, according to the pollsters.

Separately, here’s yet more evidence that MSNBC’s White House correspondent Chuck Todd is fully in the bag for the GOP this year. He promoted this NPR poll showing Dems in trouble on his aptly named “Rundown” show this morning, while ignoring the PPI poll results showing improvement in Dem chances.

AR Sen: Republican Leads Halter by 11 Points, Lincoln By 20

Jon Ponder

Politics Daily:

Lt. Gov. Bill Halter has taken a small lead over Sen. Blanche Lincoln in their runoff race for the Democratic senate nomination in Arkansas but both trail Republican Rep. John Boozman in general election match-ups, with Lincoln furthest behind, according to a Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll conducted May 24-26.

Halter is ahead of Lincoln 47 percent to 44 percent with 9 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. The two were forced into a June 8 runoff because neither notched 50 percent in the primary, where Lincoln edged Halter 44.3 percent to 42.5 percent.

In the general election match-ups, Boozman leads Lincoln 58 percent to 38 percent with 4 percent undecided. He gets 90 percent support from fellow Republicans compared to 73 percent for Lincoln among Democrats, and leads her among independents by 65 percent to 29 percent with 6 percent undecided.

Boozman leads Halter 53 percent to 42 percent with 12 percent undecided. Their respective percentages of support among members of their own parties are about the same in the match-up with Lincoln, but Boozman’s edge among independents is a little lower, at 58 percent to 35 percent.

CN Sen: Despite Gaffe on Vietnam Serivce, Blumenthal Leads GOP Rival by 25 Points

Jon Ponder

Boston Globe:

About a week after acknowledging he “misspoke” about his military service during the Vietnam era, a new poll released Thursday shows Democratic Senate candidate Richard Blumenthal remains popular among Connecticut voters and maintains a double-digit lead in the race.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, conducted May 24-25, shows Blumenthal leading the endorsed Republican Senate candidate, former wrestling executive Linda McMahon, by a 56 percent to 31 percent margin in the race to fill the seat being vacated by the retiring Sen. Chris Dodd.

Blumenthal had led McMahon 61 percent to 28 percent in a March 17 survey.

“It looks like Connecticut voters forgive Attorney General Richard Blumenthal, or feel that there is nothing to forgive in the Vietnam service flap,” said poll director Douglas Schwartz. “While he has taken a hit with voters, his poll numbers were so high to begin with that he still maintains a commanding lead over Linda McMahon.”