Republican Likely Voters Well Behind Dems for 2016

9 points

Difference in the percentage of Republicans likely to vote in the 2016 election versus Democrats, compared with a 6-point deficit in the year leading up to Barack Obama’s 2012 victory, according to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll. Key finding: “While the American electorate has become more diverse the last three years, the party’s support among Hispanic likely voters and younger likely voters has shrunk significantly.”

Where’s Marco? Senate Foreign Relations Committee Member Missed ISIS Briefing to Attend Fundraiser

WhattheheckrubioIt was more important to Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) to attend a fundraiser on the “left coast,” as conservatives call it, than a high-level briefing on the recent terrorist attack on Paris.

That left the Republicans’ self-styled foreign policy candidate out of the loop on the biggest story in global news.

Rubio said that he gets regular briefings from staff and sends surrogates to meetings he cannot attend. That worked out great for George W. Bush.

At 10 a.m. Wednesday, the Senate Foreign Relations Committee went behind closed doors for a briefing titled, “The Aftermath of Paris: America’s Role.” But Sen. Marco Rubio was not there…

The absence illustrates how Rubio is not just missing floor votes but also key hearings on national security and foreign policy — issues he has presented as chief credentials of his presidential campaign. He’s also skipping a Paris briefing this afternoon for all senators. His office said he attended an Intelligence Committee meeting on Paris held Tuesday.

[…]

Trump Has Already Altered the Race for the GOP

The worst-case scenario for Republicans is if Trump decides to run a third-party campaign. Even managing to get his name on the ballot in a handful of states would bring victory out of reach for the GOP’s eventual nominee. The best-case scenario is that Trump straggles through the race, eventually supporting the nominee. But this scenario is also far from ideal. It means that Trump has shaped the tenor of the race in almost precisely the opposite way the party establishment had hoped.

— Jonathan Chait, writing in New York magazine.

GOP Angling Toward Irrelevance on Immigration

Rather than cursing the darkness, reflexively screaming ‘amnesty,’ and calling for deportation of a population the size of Ohio, they need to light a candle and show the way forward on this complex issue. And they must do this in a way that solves the problem and does not doom the Republican Party to political irrelevance in the future.

— GOP pollster Whit Ayres, quoted by the Washington Post.

Boehner: Tea Party, Conservative Republicans Not that Different

I think the tea party has brought great energy to our political process. You get in these primary elections — they are hard-fought battles and sometimes — listen, there is not that much, not that big a difference between what you call the tea party and your average conservative Republican.

— House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH), asserting the tea party and conservative Republicans are basically the same, CNN reports.

Adelson Shows His Media Savvy at GOP Las Vegas Confab

You can ask anything you want, but you’ll have to talk to the wall, because I’m not talking to you.

— Casino magnate Sheldon Adelson, quoted by Politico, before reporter Ken Vogel was escorted by security out of the Republican Jewish Coalition’s annual spring meeting Saturday at The Venetian, or what the Washington Post dubbed the ‘Adelson primary,’ for the Las Vegas Sands chairman.

Karl Rove Creatively Imagines a Way the GOP Can Take Control of the Senate

The GOP has an outside chance of a Senate majority. To win, Republicans must also offer a compelling and substantive agenda for America’s economy, jobs, health care and fiscal situation that attract discerning independents (and the occasional disgruntled Democrats) on whom victory will depend. 2014 represents a great opportunity for Republicans: they’d better not let it get away.

— Karl Rove, whose PAC-backed candidates lost big time in the 2012 elections.

The Immigration Issue Is a Potential Nightmare for GOP

We are really balanced here on a little precipice and if this, pardon the pun, goes south, we could be in very serious trouble. If [the legislation] stalls or is killed off by conservatives, we could take the Hispanic community and turn them into the African-American community, where we get four percent on a good day… We could be a lost party for generations.

— GOP media strategist Paul Wilson.