Trump Trails Dems by Double Digits in Nationwide Poll

40%

“One year out from the 2020 election, President Trump trails some potential Democratic rivals in head-to-head matchups, with his national support level currently fixed at about 40%:” according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll. “Joe Biden, Sen. Bernie Sanders and Sen. Elizabeth Warren run strongest against the president nationally, with Biden leading by 17 points (56% to 39%), Warren by 15 points (55% to 40%) and Sanders by 14 points (55% to 41%). … Pete Buttigieg and Sen. Kamala D. Harris, the other two Democrats tested against Trump, also lead the president among registered voters, with Buttigieg up by 52% to 41%, and Harris ahead by 51% to 42%.”

Trump’s Trouble in the Suburbs

51%

A new Selzer & Company poll find just 32% of all suburban voters now say they would definitely vote to re-elect President Trump, while another 14% said they would consider someone else, and 51% said they would definitely vote for a candidate other than Trump. Suburban women especially appear motivated to make their disapproval felt: 88% of suburban women said they would definitely vote in the 2020 presidential election, ten points higher than voters overall.

GOP’s Potential ‘Perfect Storm’ Scenario

“A growing number of Republicans are privately warning of increasing fears of a total wipeout in 2020: House, Senate, and White House,” Axios reports.

  • House Republicans in swing districts are retiring at a very fast pace, especially in the suburbs of Texas and elsewhere.
  • The Republican Senate majority, once considered relatively safe, suddenly looks in serious jeopardy. Democrats are raising more money, and polling better, than Republican incumbents in battleground after battleground.
  • President Trump trails every major Democratic candidate nationally and in swing states — and his favorable ratings remain well under 50%.

“All of this is unfolding while the economy still looks strong, and before public impeachment proceedings have officially begun.”

Florida GOP Has No Appetite for Dinner

Florida GOP Chairman Joe Gruter — AP
“The Republican Party of Florida on Tuesday postponed its biggest annual fundraiser, a move that some officials blamed on lackluster interest from donors,” Politico reports.

“Planners were having difficulty selling table sponsorships to the Statesman’s Dinner, and money that Gov. Ron DeSantis pledged to raise for the event has yet to arrive. Event planners also couldn’t land a keynote speaker for the dinner, which was scheduled for Nov. 9 in Orlando.”

Huge Majority Rejects Foreign Interference in U.S. Elections

81%

A new Selzer & Co national poll finds 81% of Americans believe that it’s not right for political candidates to ask foreign governments to help them win election. That includes 81% of Republican, 85% of evangelicals Christians, 87% of rural voters — President Trump’s 2016 base. If the general election were today, only 38% of likely voters say they would definitely vote to re-elect Trump while 47% would definitely vote for someone else.

Why Impeachment Is Bad for Trump’s Re-Election Chances

“Most voters are locked in to one of the parties. The swing vote tends to be low-information voters with a hazy grasp of the issues. Impeachment is a signal to those voters that Trump has done something seriously wrong. It’s not a magic trick that works against every president — there needs to be misconduct people can easily understand, and which the news media covers as a serious scandal. This easily qualifies. … If Trump has any political strengths, it is that he is a low-information voter himself, and grasps how the political narrative plays out in snippets of cable-news chyrons drifting across screens in bars and airports. Trump has confided to allies that impeachment ‘looks bad on his résumé.’”

Jonathan Chait

Dems Targeting Over 26,000 Down-Ballot Races Nationwide

26,849

“Contest Every Race, a new coalition of Democratic groups, is launching a seven-figure campaign to challenge Republican incumbents in 26,849 down-ballot local races,” Axios reports. “2020 is more than just the presidential election. Democrats are getting serious about trying to gain more power at the local level, whether through city council seats, school boards, or state legislatures. … There are 520,000 elected offices in the country. As many as 75% go uncontested, per the group, ceding many of those seats to Republicans.”

Voter Turnout Doubled for College Students in Midterms

40%

Washington Post: “College students across the United States more than doubled their rate of voting between the 2014 and 2018 midterm elections, according to a study published Thursday by Tufts University — a dramatic spike in political engagement that could draw unprecedented attention to these voters in next year’s presidential election. … The study found that 40% of students who are eligible to vote cast ballots last year, up from 19% in 2014.”