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34%
Of registered voters said the set of three presidential debates that start on Monday in New York would be extremely or quite important to their decision. Among Republicans, 37% said the debates would be important to them, while 31% of Democrats said the same, according to a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll.
If you aren’t seriously contemplating the biggest black-swan event in American electoral history, you aren’t paying attention. … Fifteen months ago, Donald Trump was a reality-TV star with a spotty business record and a weird penchant for proclaiming he was on the verge of running for president. Now, he’s perhaps a few big breaks and a couple of sterling debate performances away from being elected 45th president of the United States. … And, no, stranger things haven’t happened.
12.4 million
Number of active registered voters in Florida, more than 3.3 million of whom are older than 65, making it the largest age group on the rolls (followed by those 50 to 64). The elderly also have the highest turnout rate in Florida, Politico reports. “Without the backing of older whites, polls indicate Trump would lose Florida — in this retirement mecca, the elderly are still a force at the ballot box. … But at its core, the race is about race, about motivating white versus non-white voters. The whiter the electorate, the likelier it is Trump wins. And older whites are keeping Trump in the hunt. … When it comes to race, non-Hispanic whites are 65 percent of the overall voter rolls and are the most-reliable voters.”
5 points
A new Public Policy Polling survey finds Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump, 42% to 37%, followed by Gary Johnson at 6%, Jill Stein at 4% and Evan McMullin at 1%. “A month ago Clinton actually led 46/41 but both she and Trump’s support has dropped by 4 points, with support for third party candidates increasing from 8% to 11% and the level of undecideds increasing from 5% to 10%. It’s a similar story in the head to head- Clinton’s 5 point lead is the same as a month ago, but now it’s 48/43 instead of 50/45 with undecideds increasing from 5% to 9%.”
6 points
A new NBC News/SurveyMonkey poll finds Hillary Clinton’s lead over Donald Trump has narrowed nationally to 48% to 42%.
7 points
A new Monmouth poll finds Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump nationally by 46% to 39%, followed by Gary Johnson at 7% and Jill Stein at 2%. Last month’s poll showed Clinton ahead by 13 points.
83%
Of Donald Trump’s voters would use the word ‘evil’ to describe Hillary Clinton. Among Clinton voters, 66% describe Trump as ‘evil,’ according to an Economist/YouGov poll.
95%
If the presidential election were held today, Clinton would win the key swing states of Florida, Ohio and Virginia, according to the Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation project. It also says that Clinton has a 95 percent chance of beating Trump. That’s out in front of most probability indicators. (Predictwise: 79 percent. FiveThirtyEight: 84.4 percent.)
8 points
The latest new NBC News/SurveyMonkey tracking poll shows Hillary Clinton continues to hold a large national lead over Donald Trump, 50% to 42%. Clinton’s 8-point advantage is virtually unchanged from her 9-point lead last week, and she has seen similar margins since the end of July.
55%
Of professional economists said they believe Hillary Clinton would be the best choice to oversee the U.S. economy as president, according to a new National Association of Business Economics survey. Donald Trump had just 14% support, behind Libertarian Gary Johnson (15%) and “Don’t Know/No Opinion” (15%).
