Tag: Election 2016

Florida Is a State, Not a Place

Buck Banks

serveimageOn his blog, Steve Shale, a veteran of decades of Florida politics, nails why Florida is a battleground state in this presidential election and why it’s especially problematic for pollsters and political insiders this year:

Most states are places. Think about Texas, or even a state like Iowa, there is a sense of place to it, a commonality of experience – or as marketers might say, almost a brand. Most states have it. Florida really doesn’t.”

“Florida isn’t a place in the same sense. It is a political circle, drawing 20 million people from vast, and I mean vast experiences and cultures into one spot. And almost everyone here has come from somewhere else.”

“Florida is the new Ellis Island, except our ships come as cars and planes, from inside the borders of the country, and outside. Over the next 15 years, we might add as many as 5 million more residents, grow to as much as 30% Hispanic, with a total population of well more than 50% coming from what are typically considered ethnic minorities.

It’s No Time for Complacency, Democrats

Buck Banks

At some point, complacency could become an issue, although it’s probably too early to worry about that. In the nearer term, I’d be worried that the race has been so volatile. Sure, things look good now. But conditions in May, and then again in July, produced a close race. Is there anything inherently preventing those conditions from arising again? I suppose I’d wonder about what Wikileaks has up its sleeve and what sort of geopolitical events could work in Trump’s favor.

— Nate Silver

It’s Probably Already Over

Buck Banks

Journalistic neutrality allegedly forces us to say that the race isn’t over until November, and most media organizations prefer to hype the presidential contest to generate viewers and readers rather than explain why a photo finish is unlikely. … But a dispassionate examination of the data, combined with a cold-blooded look at the candidates, the campaigns and presidential elections, produces only one possible conclusion: Hillary Clinton will defeat Donald Trump in November, and the margin isn’t likely to be as close as Barack Obama’s victory over Mitt Romney.

— Stuart Rothenberg

Clinton’s National Lead Grows, Attracts Greater Dem Support

Buck Banks

50% to 42%

Hillary Clinton’s lead over Donald Trump nationally, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. “Clinton is winning 92% support among self-identified Democrats. That compares with 86% support just before the Republican convention and is an indication that the Democratic convention helped consolidate supporters of Sen. Bernie Sanders behind her candidacy… In contrast, Trump is winning 83% of self-identified Republicans, nearly identical to the 82% support he had among Republicans before his convention in Cleveland.”

Conventions Have Little Effect on Outcomes

Buck Banks

13

Of the presidential elections between 1960 and 2012 (not including this year), “there have been seven where the party whose convention got lower ratings won the election in November. So it’s safe to say that ratings have little to no electoral meaning. … If we look back at the total ratings for every political convention from 1960 to 2012, it’s quickly apparent that the side whose convention receives the most viewers doesn’t necessarily win.” — Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball