Tag: Election 2016

Victory Was Just 2 Percent Away

Buck Banks

2%

Nate Silver: “What would have happened if just 1 out of every 100 voters shifted from Trump to Clinton? That would have produced a net shift of 2 percentage points in Clinton’s direction. … Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Florida flip back to Clinton, giving her a total of 307 electoral votes. And she’d have won the popular vote by 3 to 4 percentage points, right where the final national polls had the race and in line with Obama’s margin of victory in 2012.”

Enthusiasm Beats Analytics

Buck Banks

Clinton had a sophisticated analytics shop. Yet, as I watched this election unfold I was reminded of a statement by GOP pollster Glen Bolger in 2014, he said you can’t win on turnout if you are losing on message. Exit polls showed that the number one candidate quality that mattered most to voters was ‘Can bring change’ at 39 percent. Trump won those voters with 83 percent. Enthusiasm beats analytics every time.

— Amy Walter

Trump: An American Tragedy

Buck Banks

The election of Donald Trump to the Presidency is nothing less than a tragedy for the American republic, a tragedy for the Constitution, and a triumph for the forces, at home and abroad, of nativism, authoritarianism, misogyny, and racism. Trump’s shocking victory, his ascension to the Presidency, is a sickening event in the history of the United States and liberal democracy. On January 20, 2017, we will bid farewell to the first African-American President—a man of integrity, dignity, and generous spirit—and witness the inauguration of a con who did little to spurn endorsement by forces of xenophobia and white supremacy. It is impossible to react to this moment with anything less than revulsion and profound anxiety.

— David Remnick

Cook: Clinton Wins and Dems Take Senate

Buck Banks

There is a food fight un­der way among many of those do­ing pres­id­en­tial-elec­tion mod­el­ing… It’s not my style or ex­pert­ise to put a spe­cif­ic per­cent­age on Clin­ton’s chances of win­ning, but, suf­fice it to say, it’s a really big num­ber. … The Sen­ate is tough­er to call. The strong like­li­hood of a Clin­ton vic­tory means that the Demo­crat­ic tar­get is 50 seats, a gain of four, with Vice Pres­id­ent Tim Kaine cast­ing a tie-break­ing vote if ne­ces­sary. Right now, I think the odds are highest for a four-seat gain, next likely would be five seats.

— Charlie Cook

We Are Losing Sleep Over This Election

Buck Banks

4.2 minutes

“Wearable devices that track exercise and other vital signs reveal what many have suspected: The election is making us lose sleep,” the Wall Street Journal reports. “The night of the first presidential debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, Sept. 26, Fitbit users nationwide slept an average of 4.2 minutes less than they did the Monday before and the Monday after the debate. Users’ average sleep typically varies only about one to two minutes from one Monday to the next, so the change on the debate night is statistically significant.”

What Does Surprise Winner in Bloomberg News Poll Portend for 2020?

Trish
The winner of the latest Bloomberg News poll
The winner of the latest Bloomberg News poll

The results of a new Bloomberg News poll in Florida show the winner is…Michelle Obama!

The First Lady’s net favorability score — 57 — was higher than the other ten people in the poll, all of whom are, were, or want to be, elected officials.

Here are the actual numbers, from lowest net favorables to highest:

Patrick Murphy, candidate for the Florida U.S. Senate seat currently held by Marco Rubio — 38
Tim Kaine, Democratic VP nomineeand Virginia senator — 39
Hillary Clinton — 44
Donald Trump — 46
Rick Scott, Florida governor — 47
Bill Clinton, former president — 47
Marco Rubio, Florida senator — 50
Mike Pence, Republican VP nominee and Indiana governor — 51
Barack Obama, president — 51
Joe Biden, vice president — 54

[…]

Clinton Expands National Lead

Buck Banks

12 points

A new Monmouth poll finds Hillary Clinton is currently ahead of Donald Trump among likely voters nationally, 50% to 38%, with Gary Johnson at 5%. Said pollster Patrick Murray: “Clinton has increased her lead among all registered voters, but the main difference between this month and last month is that her supporters have become more enthusiastic, and thus more likely to turn out while Trump backers have become less likely to vote.”