It Doesn’t Matter Who Controls the Senate

The legislative dynamics in Washington are very simple. Gridlock exists because Obama and House Republicans cannot agree on legislation. If Obama and the House could agree on legislation, their deal would be approved by a Democratic-controlled Senate or by a Republican-controlled Senate. There are no plausible circumstances in which the Senate would block a deal struck between the House and Obama, because, whichever party controls the Senate, its ideological center will sit comfortably inside in the enormous space between Obama and the House Republicans. Ergo, the party that controls the Senate has no impact on legislative outcomes.

— Jonathan Chait, writing in New York Magazine.

Rove: GOP Majority Still In Doubt

The president’s job approval numbers are lousy, no Democrat in a competitive Senate race polls regularly above 50%, GOP enthusiasm is high, and independents are trending Republican. The midterm environment is terrible for Democrats — yet each passing day provides evidence as to why a GOP Senate majority is still in doubt.

Karl Rove, in a Wall Street Journal op-ed.

McConnell: If GOP Wins the Senate We Will Shut Down Government

So in the House and Senate, we own the budget. So what does that mean? That means that we can pass the spending bill. And I assure you that in the spending bill, we will be pushing back against this bureaucracy by doing what’s called placing riders in the bill. No money can be spent to do this or to do that. We’re going to go after them on healthcare, on financial services, on the Environmental Protection Agency, across the board (inaudible). All across the federal government, we’re going to go after it …

— Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY), telling a room of conservative activists how Republicans will shut down parts of the government if they gain control of the U.S. Senate on an audio tape acquired by The Nation.

The GOP Has a Huge Hurdle to a Senate Takeover

If Republicans are to win the Senate, they probably are going to have to do something they haven’t done since 1980: beat more than two Democratic Senate incumbents in November. … In that Reagan Revolution election — one of the best for the Republican Party in its entire history — the GOP flipped 12 seats held by a Democratic incumbent who sought another term … Incredibly, in the 16 Senate elections since then, the Republicans have flipped only 12 Democratic Senate seats where the incumbent was running again: It’s taken them three decades worth of elections to match the achievement of that single 1980 effort.

— Kyle Kondik, writing for Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics.

Cook: 2014 Is a Make-or-Break Year for Senate Republicans

The reason next year is so make-or-break for Senate Republicans is because in 2016, when all of the seats they won in 2010 come up — they netted a six-seat net gain that year — there will be 24 GOP seats up, compared with only 10 for Democrats, leading to some serious Republican overexposure. Seven of the 24 GOP senators up are hailing from states that Obama carried in 2012. After having had plentiful Democratic targets in 2012 and 2014, it will be Republicans in 2016 who will have the most incumbents in the crosshairs.

— Charlie Cook, noting the 2014 midterm elections may the the GOP’s last chance to take back control of the Senate for years.