Rand Paul’s Simple Tariff Explanation

“Well, tariffs are taxes, and when you put a tax on a business, it’s always passed through as a cost. So, there will be higher prices. The only trade that means anything is the individual who buys something. That’s the only real trade. And that by very definition, if it’s voluntary, is mutually beneficial, or the trade doesn’t occur.”

— Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY), quoted by Politico.

Trump Has ‘No Deal,’ Not ‘New Deal’

“Everyone says ‘When, when, when are you going to sign deals?’ We don’t have to sign deals. We could sign 25 deals right now if we wanted to. We don’t have to sign deals. They have to sign deals with us. They want our market. We don’t want a piece of their market. We don’t care about their market.”

— President Trump, quoted by the New York Times, on trade deals his administration is supposedly negotiating.

U.S. Economy Shrunk in First Quarter of Trump’s Second Term

0.3%

The U.S. economy shrank at a 0.3% annual pace from January through March, the first drop in three years, as President Donald Trump’s trade wars disrupted business, the Associated Press reports. First-quarter growth was slowed by a surge in imports as companies in the United States tried to bring in foreign goods before Trump imposed massive tariffs.

U.S. Spent $220 Billion More in Trump’s First 100 Days

$220 billion

“Despite promises to cut spending during the campaign and his first few months in office, President Trump’s federal government has spent about $220 billion more in his first 100 days compared to the same time period last year,” CBS News reports. “In fact, the government is now spending more, day to day, than was spent in nine of the last 10 years. The exception: 2021, when the government was spending trillions to fight the coronavirus pandemic and prevent an economic disaster.”

Consumer Confidence Is in the Toilet

86

CNN: “Consumer confidence sank 7.9 points in April to a reading of 86, the Conference Board said in its latest survey released Tuesday. That’s the lowest level since May 2020 and a larger decline than economists had projected. … The survey’s Expectations Index, which captures people’s outlook on the economy, plummeted 12.5 points this month to 54.4, the lowest level in 13 years.”

Big Majority Says Trump Has Set the Economy on Course for Recession

69%

A new CNN poll finds a 59% majority of the public now says President Trump’s policies have worsened economic conditions and a 55% majority say that Trump’s tariffs have been bad policy. Overall, 69% of the public considers an economic recession in the next year to be at least somewhat likely, including 32% who say that’s very likely.

IMF Predicts Global Growth Slowdown, Increase in U.S. Inflation

1.8%

The International Monetary Fund yesterday lowered its 2025 growth outlook for the US and the global economy, citing heightened uncertainty and economic disruption caused by President Donald Trump’s sweeping new tariffs. The IMF trimmed the 2025 US growth estimate to 1.8% from 2.7%, the largest reduction among the world’s advanced economies, and cut the global growth forecast to 2.8% from 3.3%. The fund cautioned the trade policy climate and ongoing conflicts between the US and other tariff-hit countries are discouraging investment and spending. US inflation is now predicted to reach 3% this year, one percentage point higher than the IMF’s January projection, while the risk of a US recession has increased to 40%, up from 25% in October.