Tag: inflation

IMF Predicts Global Growth Slowdown, Increase in U.S. Inflation

Buck Banks

1.8%

The International Monetary Fund yesterday lowered its 2025 growth outlook for the US and the global economy, citing heightened uncertainty and economic disruption caused by President Donald Trump’s sweeping new tariffs. The IMF trimmed the 2025 US growth estimate to 1.8% from 2.7%, the largest reduction among the world’s advanced economies, and cut the global growth forecast to 2.8% from 3.3%. The fund cautioned the trade policy climate and ongoing conflicts between the US and other tariff-hit countries are discouraging investment and spending. US inflation is now predicted to reach 3% this year, one percentage point higher than the IMF’s January projection, while the risk of a US recession has increased to 40%, up from 25% in October.

Trumponomics Already Taking Toll on U.S. Economy

Buck Banks

From the New York Times:

“The United States economy is starting to show signs of strain as President Trump’s abrupt moves to shrink federal spending, lay off government workers and impose tariffs on America’s largest trading partners rattle businesses and reverberate across states and cities.”

“Funding freezes and firings of federal workers combined with the prospect of costly trade wars are souring consumer sentiment, raising inflation expectations and stalling business investment plans, according to recent economic surveys.”

“Local economies are also bracing for a sudden withdrawal of fiscal support, forcing officials to contemplate tax increases or municipal bond offerings to stabilize their budgets. While Mr. Trump has acknowledged that his policies could bring some initial pain, the early warning signs suggest that his blunt approach could come with more ominous risks to the economy.”

Trumponomics: Inflation Is Rising

Buck Banks

3%

U.S. inflation rose to 3% in January, strengthening the case for the Federal Reserve to extend a pause on interest rate cuts, reported the New York Times. The Consumer Price Index jumped more than expected, data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed on Wednesday, rising 0.5% from December in what was the fastest monthly increase since August 2023. Last month, the annual pace was 2.9%. “Core” C.P.I., which more closely reflects underlying inflation by removing volatile food and energy prices, also showed little improvement. It rose 0.4% from December or 3.3% on a year-over-year basis, both higher than economists expected. The monthly increase in core prices was the highest since April 2023.

Trump’s Tariffs to Tack $3k on to Price of New Cars

Buck Banks

$3,000

Bloomberg: The duties would immediately hit almost one-quarter of the 16 million vehicles that are sold in the US each year, as well as the parts and components that go into them — an import market that totaled $225 billion in 2024, according to research from consultant AlixPartners. Tariffs will add $60 billion in costs to the industry, the research shows, much of which is likely to be passed on to consumers.

You Think WE Have Inflation? In Russia, It’s 21%

Buck Banks

21%

Russia’s central bank on Friday raised its key interest rate by two percentage points to a record-high 21% in an effort to combat growing inflation as government spending on the military strains the economy’s capacity to produce goods and services – and drives up workers’ wages, reports Euro News. By contrast, it’s 2.4% in the U.S., according to CNBC.

Plurality of Economists Say Inflation Would Be Worse Under Trump

Buck Banks

56%

“The Wall Street Journal’s survey, conducted July 5-9, received responses from 68 professional forecasters from business, Wall Street and academia. Of the 50 who answered questions about Trump and Biden, 56% said inflation would be higher under another Trump term than a Biden term, versus 16% who said the opposite. The remainder saw no material difference.”