Tag: Elections

A.P. is reporting on what will no doubt be the excuse used to conceal fraud in the next election.

Fewer voters will cast their ballots by punching a card or pulling a lever in this November’s elections as the country continues to turn to newer, electronic machines, according to a study released Monday…experts also note that means many Americans will be voting on unfamiliar equipment this fall.

…The widespread push to modernize means that, in the six years between November 2000 and this fall’s elections, nearly 82 million people in a nation of 170 million registered voters will have cast ballots on new equipment…

See, it’s not that we rigged things, it’s that the voters cast their ballots the wrong way because they didn’t know what they were doing. Yeah, that’s it!

Laying odds: Charlie Cook of the National Journal and a colleague developed a method of statistically evaluating election odds that provides insight into how the mid-terms might play out. Cook notes that a year ago, following Republican victories in the 2004 elections and with President Bush’s job-approval ratings still above 50 percent (remember the “mandate” and “political capital”), the Democrats’ chances of taking back the House looked slim to nil. But with Bush’s approval rating stagnating at 42 percent, Cook says the odds of a Democratic takeover, while less than 50-50, are real.

House Democrats need a net gain of 15 seats in November to have a majority. Cook notes that the battle will be tight because “few House Republicans are retiring, and few of the Republican incumbents who ought to be vulnerable are in districts that actually are competitive.” Nonetheless, his statistical model suggests the race will be close and could be impacted by a “wave” effect among the electorate.

Here’s how it works:

On an Excel spreadsheet, we gave each of the 435 House districts a numerical score based on our assessment of the chances of its going Republican this November. The score is computed by taking into account the historical voting patterns of that district, the caliber of this year’s candidates, the strength of the campaigns, and the political atmosphere in the district.

If a district looks solidly Republican, we give it a score of 1.0. If a district is rock-solid Democratic, we assign it a score of 0.0. If the parties have an equal chance of winning in a given district, we give the district a .5 score. Very few districts are in the toss-up territory; the vast majority fall close to the partisan extremes — 1.0 or 0.0.

The GOP’s resources might not be sufficient to douse all the anti-Republican fires that could erupt around the nation.

The current model predicts a net Democratic gain of 10 seats. When we factor in a four-seat margin of error, the model projects that as of today, under current conditions, and without speculating about what the national political environment may do between now and November, Democrats will make a net gain of six to 14 seats. With a bit of luck — or a wave of any size — Democrats might even grasp their gold ring: 15 seats.

Factors that could sway the Dems’ prospects include whether they can field strong candidates, whether there’s a groundswell of support for Democrats or a backlash agsinst Republicans, whether the Dems can raise enough money and how effective the Republicans’ nasty attacks are on Democratic challengers.

The not-so-secret weapon of the National Republican Congressional Committee in recent elections has been its use of money to rip into Democratic challengers and Democratic open-seat candidates early and often. Early attacks have thus enabled the NRCC to create negative impressions of those contenders before they could define themselves positively.

In the past few campaign cycles, the NRCC had enough money to go on the attack very early and very effectively. The danger for Republicans this time is that while the committee has much more money than the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee — $19 million at the end of 2005, compared with $15.7 million for the Democrats — the GOP’s resources might not be sufficient to douse all the anti-Republican fires that could erupt around the nation.

If it’s just a question of money, it’s likely that the Republicans will prevail, but if such issues as the warrantless surveillance of Americans, unchecked executive power and assault on civil liberties continue to dog the GOP, the people’s desire for change could win back the House.

Training to win: Yesterday I was on the phone with Bob Graham and Gary Hart — no, really, I was. It was a teleconference in which Pensito Review was invited to participate along with a bunch of other on-line entities. The call was set up by Congresswoman Jane Harman of California, who currently serves as ranking Democrat on the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence and as a member of the House Homeland Security Committee.

The purpose of the call was to alert the on-line community to the launch of a new political action committee whose purpose is to help Democrats win in the mid-terms and hopefully get one back in the White House in ’08. It’s SecureUS PAC, and it appears on the surface at least to be a good idea that potentially could make a big difference.

SecureUS provides a mechanism to train Democratic candidates and encumbents to be experts in the areas of national security and intelligence. Karl Rove thought he carved out that territory for the Repugs in the 2006 elections last week, but the folks at SecureUS figure it’s time for the Democrats to get “smart and tough” on national security policy.

The organization has contacted more than 50 candidates and has asked them to complete questionnaires to evaluate their suitability for the SecureUS program.

Harman listed the issues the Democrtatic Party “needs to own”:

• An exit strategy for Iraq that promotes true power sharing
• Nuclear proliferation
• Accurate, actionable and timely intelligence
• A strategy for homeland security
• An energy independence strategy

Ex-senator, ex-governor and former presidential candidate Bob Graham and ex-senator and former presidential candidate Gary Hart are board members and will help train candidates beginning April 3 in Washington. The other board members include:

• Graham Allison — Founding dean of Harvard’s John F. Kennedy School of Government and director of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. For three decades he has been a leading analyst of U.S. national security and defense policy with a special interest in terrorism. He served as special advisor to the Secretary of Defense under Ronald Reagan and as Assistant Secretary of Defense in Bill Clinton’s first administration.
• Richard Holbrooke — Member of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, the Citizens Committee for New York City and the Economic Club of New York. He is a board member of American International Group and the National Endowment for Democracy and is chairman of International Rescue Committee and Refugees International.
• Claudia Kennedy — Retired lieutenant general in the U.S. Army and the first woman to hold a three-star rank in the army. She has served in the U.S. Army Intelligence and Security Command. at the Directorate of Training in Washington, D.C.; as Director of Intelligence, G2, Forces Command, Fort McPherson, Ga.; as Deputy Commander and Assistant Commandant at U.S. Army Intelligence School at Fort Huachuca, Ariz.; and Assistant Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence at Army Headquarters in Washington.
• William Perry — Senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and professor at Stanford University in the School of Engineering and the Institute for International Studies, where he is co-director of the Preventive Defense Project, a research collaboration of Stanford and Harvard universities. He was a professor at Stanford from 1988 to 1993, when he was the co-director of the Center for International Security and Arms Control. He served as U.S. Secretary of Defense under Bill Clinton 1994 to 1997, and Deputy Secretary of Defense from 1993 to 1994.

Graham and Hart gave some insight into the kind of critical thinking they plan to impart to their trainees: “We are going to teach the thought processes that lead to good judgment,” said Graham.
[…]

Check it out: General Wesley Clark (Ret.) is heading a PAC to elect veterans of the current conflicts who are running as Democrats in 2006. With the slogan, “Support the Troops, Send Them to Congress!” he has launched IAVA, the Iraq & Afghanistan Veterans of America PAC.

Of course the vast majority of the vets campaigning — nine out of ten — are Dems. Other criteria includes signing on to the PAC’s objectives, which include:

• Demand from the administration a victory strategy for Iraq that includes hard success metrics which trigger American troop draw-downs so our forces can safely redeploy from theater.
• Mandatory full funding for the Department of Veterans Affairs.
• Thorough investigation of the failure to provide adequate armor for our soldiers, and that those responsible are held accountable.
• Guaranteeing the exhaustion of diplomacy options by the President prior to approval for military conflict.
• TRICARE (health care) for all members of the National Guard and Reserve and their families.
• Lowering the retirement age for members of the National Guard and Reserve from 60 to 55.
• An immediate 5% pay increase for our Armed Forces.

Clark points out a very good reason why these candidates should get our special consideration.

This is the start of a political movement to empower the people who pay the price for bad decisions in Washington: Our combat veterans.

Florida Governor Jeb Bush is learning from his big brother. “If you have anything to say,” W. must have told him, “never say it in front of unbiased people. Make sure they’re all on your side first.”

St. Petersburg Times:

The Florida Republican Party on Saturday called security to eject reporters listening to Gov. Jeb Bush tout his party’s accomplishments in Tallahassee.

The unusual scene – five hotel security staffers and a sheriff’s deputy escorting reporters away from where they could hear the governor – occurred in the middle of a speech in which Bush exhorted party activists to spread the word of Republican successes in Florida.

“I apologize for that if I’m indirectly responsible, which I’m not,” Bush said after addressing Republican activists gathered at Disney for a party meeting…

Way to accept responsibility like a grown-up, Jeb.

Eyewitness reporter Adam Smith had more to say about the event on his blog.

How ludicrous was it? Picture this: Before Jeb spoke, half a dozen young men in dark suits frantically looking through the ballroom, as if Osama himself might be lurking: “Find Bill Cotterell! Has anyone seen Bill Cotterell?! He could still be in there!”

Or this: An overwrought reporter (yours truly) accosting legislators in the hall, demanding they explain why their party would bar the press from hearing the governor. “No comment. I have no comment on that,” poor Sen. Durrell Peadon said, looking like he could have been leaving a grand jury proceeding.

The Lake Buena Vista Four included Windy March of the [Tampa] Tribune, the [Tallahassee] Democrat’s Cotterell, Jeremy Wallace of the [Southwest Florida] Herald-Tribune, and your Buzz correspondent.

Florida saved a nickel per page by axing state workers and contracting instead with Convergys to scan and digitize government employee personnel files. The price tag for offshoring that task — and spreading around social security and bank account numbers — could be considerably higher. Tallahassee Democrat:

Lawyers for state employees urged Attorney General Charlie Crist’s office Tuesday to make Convergys warn tens of thousands of state workers that their confidential personnel data – including Social Security and bank-routing numbers – may have been illegally sent to computer companies in India, China and Barbados.

A lawsuit is in the works, for among other things, failing to notify the affected employees so they could try to protect themselves from fraud and identity theft. But it gets even better. Looking for something to read in the break room? How about my personnel file?

GDXdata has said it will vigorously defend against the suit, which was reported Dec. 25 by the Tallahassee Democrat. On the same day, the newspaper separately reported on an investigation by Department of Management Services Inspector General Steve Rumph, who said People First employees were able to leaf through personnel files for their own amusement, download data to disks, e-mail it or print it out – often without leaving a computer trail.

People First is Gov. Jeb Bush’s biggest privatization project – a $350 million, nine-year contract for Convergys to provide online personnel services. The system has been haunted by big and small glitches for three years, but the Department of Management Services has recently said it is running much better.

“This is why privatization is a failed experiment,” Gonzalez said. “Ultimately, when you’re trying to get accountability, you can’t get anybody to take responsibility.”

Crist, who is running as a Republican candidate for governor this year, doesn’t seem anxious to get involved but his deputy AG, Clay Roberts, says he’s a victim too.

“My boss was among those people who, according to one of the news articles, had employees looking up things in his file for grins.”

Most state employees haven’t forgotten that when Jeb was sworn in, he surveyed all over which he now had dominion and proclaimed his greatest wish was that there was no government in Florida to run. You’re doing a heckuva job there, Jebby.

“Equal justice under the law for all regardless of who they are and how they were born is fundamental to our American spirit and our American freedoms. Any person or group that argues that the law should not apply equally to all Americans is, frankly, un-American.

“The Republican Party has been hijacked by religious fanatics, who are out of touch with mainstream America. Think of the recent comments by Pat Robertson – a religious fanatic by any measure – that the United States should assassinate a democratically elected leader in Venezuela, and that Ariel Sharon’s stroke was divine punishment because Sharon wished to trade land for peace.

“Since the Republican Party has been utterly unable to stand for something positive, they have created an atmosphere of fear and intimidation, and have pandered to religious fanatics not to vote for something they believe in, but to vote against their fellow Americans with whom they disagree. Those among us who would use religion and politics to divide rather than unite Americans should be ashamed.”

— Paul Hackett, Ohio Democratic U.S. Senate candidate