
Ezra Klein at the Washington Post Wonkblog published the chart above. It explains why Romney is leading President Obama by a whopping 7 percentage points in the current Gallup daily tracking poll. Klein also says it suggests that Obama could well win decisively in the Electoral College but lose just as decisively in the popular vote — a much more lopsided (not to mention legitimate) version of what happened in 2000, when George W. Bush was awarded Florida’s Electoral College votes by Republicans on the Supreme Court, while Al Gore won the popular ballot by over 500,000 votes.
(It also happened in 1876, when Republican Rutherford B. Hayes won in the Electoral College but lost to his Democratic opponent, Samuel Tilden, by 300,000 votes; and in 1888, when Republican Benjamin Harrison won in the Electoral College but lost the popular vote to Democrat Grover Cleveland, by about 100,000 votes.)
Klein does not go there, but what screams out about this breakout is that the United States’ first African-American president is ahead by what might be called a “normal” majority — an average of 4.6 percentage points — in every region of the country, except for the states of the Old Confederacy, where he is behind by an insurmountable 22 points.
[…]