NBC News Flogs Horse Race: President Up by 6 Points in Poll, But NBC Leads with Obama’s ‘Weak’ Favorable Rating, Even Though It Is 14 Points Higher Than Romney’s

One metric that never gets factored into presidential election prognostication is the degree to which the media manipulates facts in order to keep the race as close as possible. Folks like Chuck Todd, the top poll watcher at NBC, certainly have a motive to promote a tight race — imagine what their ratings would be if it were crystal clear now that the race was going to end in a rout in November.

“Romney would be the first GOP presumptive presidential nominee since 1996 to head into his nominating convention with a net-negative favorable/unfavorable score.”
– NBC News, burying the lede

The release of data from the new NBC Wall Street Journal poll this week is a case in point. The full results of the poll were embargoed until Tuesday, so on Monday, Todd and others at NBC teased the poll by releasing the most dire result for Pres. Obama they could find in the data. After weeks of bearing the brunt of Mitt Romney’s negative and spurious advertising, the president’s negatives were up a bit.

Whoah. That’s bad news, right. Well, on Tuesday, when the top line of the poll hit the news, it revealed that Obama leads Romney by 6 points, 49 percent to 43 percent. In 2008, Obama-Biden beat John McCain and Sarah Palin by 7.2 points (52.9 to 45.7 percent) that was considered a walloping. But in describing the president’s 6 point lead over Romney now, NBC said, “The horse race remains tight.”

Compared to what? […]

Be Careful What You Ask For: CBO Tells Boehner That Obamacare Saves Money and Its Repeal Would Cost More

BoehnerCry
Don't cry, John!

Pity poor John Boehner. The Republican House Speaker from Ohio asked the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), which exists to measure all things mathematical for the legislative branch, how much the most recent bill to repeal the Affordable Care Act would save.

The answer? Nada. In fact, the CBO found that the ACA will decrease the deficit while its repeal would increase it. Here are parts of the letter sent to the honorable JB.

As you requested, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and the staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) have estimated the direct spending and revenue effects of H.R. 6079, the Repeal of Obamacare Act, as passed by the House of Representatives on July 11, 2012…

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Can Romney Win the Presidency with a Favorable Rating in the 30s, Cont’d.

chart-romney-favorables

Can a candidate — any candidate — whose favorables or likability consistently polls in the high 20s and low 30s be elected president? We have asked this question recently (here and here) as it relates Mitt Romney, recently, and now Kevin Drum at Mother Jones addresses it in a post titled, “Romney’s Big Problem: People Just Don’t Like Him Much”:

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The King of the Back-Handed Endorsements

Mr. Carnahan is a plodder, but his record shows little evidence of corruption. He hasn’t been as effective as Mr. Clay in bringing home the bacon to his constituents, but he hasn’t sold out his constituents, either. We choose the plodder over the pal of predatory profiteers.

— The St. Louis Post-Dispatch, endorsing Rep. Russ Carnahan (D) over Rep. Lacy Clay (D) in their primary battle with, to say the least, faint praise indeed.

Americans Fed Up with Negative Campaigns

78%

Of Americans say they are “frustrated” by the tone of political campaigns and 74% believe that the tone of political campaigns has “gotten more negative” than in past election years, according to a new Marist poll. In addition, 66% believe candidates spend more time criticizing their opponents than addressing the issues, while almost as many (64%) say negative campaign ads “harm the political process” either “a great deal” or “a significant amount.” And by a nearly 20 point margin (56% to 37%), the public says the tone of political campaigns is “mostly uncivil and disrespectful.”