Tag: Polls
Romney’s Overseas Bungling Was Caught in the Glare of Wall-to-Wall Coverage of the Olympics, Now His Support Among Independents Has Fallen
All the caveats apply: Election Day is three months off, and any number of things could happen to upend the Obama campaign; polls this early out are a snapshot in time; and most of the independent voters who will decide the election if it is close haven not yet engaged — except for those who were watching coverage of the opening of the London Olympics.
Keep in mind that Obama-Biden beat McCain-Palin by 7 points in 2008.
More about that in a bit. First, three new polls released this week have produced remarkably similar results — and all show voters, particularly independents, moving away from Mitt Romney.
The new CNN/ORC International poll finds Pres. Obama with an 11 point lead over Romney among independents, 53 to 42 percent. The president leads by 7 points overall, 52 to 45 percent. The Reuters-Ipsos poll also released yesterday found the same 7-point gap among all registered voters, 49 to 42 percent.
The Fox News poll also gives the president an 11-point lead among independents, up from 4 points last month. He has a 9 point lead over Romney overall, 49 to 40 percent.
Here’s a key point of reference: Obama-Biden won the 2008 election over McCain-Palin by 7.2 percentage points.
So what is behind Romney’s slippage? […]
Romney’s Poll Problems, Cont’d – Undecideds’ Favorable Opinion of Him Polls in the Teens
Nate Cohn at TNR:
[Recent] polling from Pew Research and NBC/WSJ suggests that Romney has a real problem with the undecided voters he’s counting on to put him over the top. Approximately half of undecided voters have an unfavorable impression of Romney, while his favorability ratings are mired in the teens. That’s an average net-favorable rating of -33, which is all the more remarkable considering that about one-third of voters didn’t offer an opinion of Romney at all. Put differently, Romney is disliked by an astonishing 75 percent of undecided voters who have formulated an opinion of the Republican nominee…
Between some portion of undecided voters staying home, an inevitable subset voting for Obama, and Romney’s high unfavorable ratings, a flood of undecided voters flocking to Romney seems unlikely—at least if the election were held today.
Pew Poll Gives Obama a 10 Point Lead – Finds Rising Dislike of Romney among Voters
Pew Research Center for the People & the Press:
Obama continues to hold a sizable lead over Romney in the election contest. Currently, 51 percent say they support Obama or lean toward him, while 41 percent support or lean toward Romney. This is largely unchanged from earlier in July and consistent with polling over the course of this year. Across eight Pew Research Center surveys since January, Obama has led Romney by between four and 12 percentage points.
And:
NBC News Flogs Horse Race: President Up by 6 Points in Poll, But NBC Leads with Obama’s ‘Weak’ Favorable Rating, Even Though It Is 14 Points Higher Than Romney’s
One metric that never gets factored into presidential election prognostication is the degree to which the media manipulates facts in order to keep the race as close as possible. Folks like Chuck Todd, the top poll watcher at NBC, certainly have a motive to promote a tight race — imagine what their ratings would be if it were crystal clear now that the race was going to end in a rout in November.
“Romney would be the first GOP presumptive presidential nominee since 1996 to head into his nominating convention with a net-negative favorable/unfavorable score.”
– NBC News, burying the lede
– NBC News, burying the lede
The release of data from the new NBC Wall Street Journal poll this week is a case in point. The full results of the poll were embargoed until Tuesday, so on Monday, Todd and others at NBC teased the poll by releasing the most dire result for Pres. Obama they could find in the data. After weeks of bearing the brunt of Mitt Romney’s negative and spurious advertising, the president’s negatives were up a bit.
Whoah. That’s bad news, right. Well, on Tuesday, when the top line of the poll hit the news, it revealed that Obama leads Romney by 6 points, 49 percent to 43 percent. In 2008, Obama-Biden beat John McCain and Sarah Palin by 7.2 points (52.9 to 45.7 percent) that was considered a walloping. But in describing the president’s 6 point lead over Romney now, NBC said, “The horse race remains tight.”
Compared to what? […]
Can Romney Win the Presidency with Favorable Ratings in the 30s?
As you watch cable news coverage of the presidential race, keep in mind the fact that news organizations have a vested interest in keeping the race tight. Logically, a close race produces much better ratings than a race in which the outcome is a foregone conclusion.
With that in mind, here is a factor that I have yet to hear mentioned in the coverage I’ve seen: Voters don’t like Mitt Romney.
New Poll Find That Just a Third of Voters View Romney Favorably – Lower by Double Digits Than the Losing Candidates in Recent Election History
George W. Bush ended his term as president in January 2009 with just one signature “accomplishment”: After eight years, he left office as the most unpopular president in the history of presidential polling — his unfavorable ratings were upside down for 39 straight months. When he finally flew back to Texas for good, Bush’s approval was a miserable 34 percent, according to Gallup.
Romney’s favorable rating is down to 30% in swing states in one poll – worse than George Bush’s overall 34% overall favorable rating when he left office.
With numbers like those, Bush could not have been reelected, obviously, were that even legally possible. In fact, no candidate who is viewed so negatively could be elected to any office, especially the presidency. Right?
Which brings us to Mitt Romney, the man who would be Bush’s successor as the next Republican president — the candidate who all but refuses to mention Bush as he campaigns — and the pol whose unfavorables among voters, especially in swing states are as bad, or, in at least one case, worse than Bush’s.
Romney Needs Rubio in Florida
46 – 42
Results of a Quinnipiac poll in Florida showing Obama moving ahead of Romney in the swing state. Among Latinos, Obama’s lead was even wider: 49 – 39. The telephone survey was taken June 12 through 18, both before and after Obama’s announcement that he will no longer enforce deportation of a narrowly defined group of Hispanic children and young adults. One would imagine Obama’s lead has only grown since, and that Mitt Romney will have even more reason to beg Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) to be his running mate.
New Study: Don’t Expect to Run Into Joe Biden at Subway
Ever since we looked around and noticed that America is pretty much like your Thanksgiving Day table when it comes to discussing politics, researchers have been fascinated with figuring out what makes liberals and conservatives, Democrats and Republicans, tea partiers and occupyers different.
A market research firm filled out the picture a little more this week, publishing a handful of brand preferences linked to relative blueness or redness.
The results, are, in some cases, counter-intuitive. For starters, Jeep was chosen the “most desired car” among Democrats, while BMW was the favorite of Republicans. As a Democrat, I want it noted I would have voted the other way. Twice, if they let me.
As for insurance companies, progressives picked um, Progressive, while conservatives went for Allstate. One can’t help but wonder if the names of these brands had something to do with the choices.
