Big Decline in Voters Identifying as Republican

5 points

NBC News: “From November 2016 to November 2017 there was a 5-point drop in the number of people who call themselves Republicans, from 42% to 37%, according to Gallup. In that same time, the number of people identifying as Democrats stayed flat at 44%. … Do the math and a 2-point edge for the Democrats in party identification, 44% to 42%, has been pushed to 7 points, 44% to 37%, in just one year. That’s getting up into the area that may be a concern for Republicans in the 2018 midterms, where a big swing in party allegiance could lead to a swing in House and Senate seats.”

Exurbs Turning Away from GOP

45.5%

Wall Street Journal: “Data from Gallup show 45.5% of adults in exurban communities self-identified as Republican in the second quarter of 2017, down from 49.6% in the first quarter of 2017 and 51.6% in the fourth quarter of 2016. It was also the lowest quarterly number for self-identified Republicans in the exurbs since 2013, the earliest numbers available. … The data also showed an increase in self-identified Democrats in exurban counties to 40.5% from 37.3% in the first quarter of 2017 and 36.8% in the fourth quarter of 2016. The 40.5% was the highest number recorded from Democrats since 2013.”

Trump Says GOP Will Look Like ‘Dopes’ If It Can’t Pass Healthcare

“If the Republicans have the House, Senate and the presidency and they can’t pass this health care bill they are going to look weak. How can we not do this after promising it for years?”

— President Trump said the party would look like “dopes” if it couldn’t pass the bill after passing a repeal bill in 2015, at a dinner with GOP senators on Monday evening, reports Politico.

GOP Risking 2018 on Trump Play

“Scandals have typically operated as a cloud over a president’s agenda. But the Russia-related legal challenges swirling around President Trump are functioning more like a cloak for his joint agenda with congressional Republicans. That difference captures the GOP’s decision to govern in a manner aimed almost entirely at stoking their hard-core base—a critical calculation that could determine their fate in the 2018 election, and possibly the 2020 contest, as well.”

— Ron Brownstein

Rooney Can’t Name One GOP Positive in Eight Years

“I’ve been in this job eight years, and I’m wracking my brain to think of one thing our party has done that’s been something positive, that’s been something other than stopping something else from happening. We need to start having victories as a party. And if we can’t, then it’s hard to justify why we should be back here.”

— Rep. Tom Rooney (R-FL), quoted by The Atlantic.