Preliminary Numbers Favor Democrats to Retain House in 2020

79%

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “Democrats start the cycle favored to hold the House majority, but a GOP presidential victory would open the door to Republicans restoring total control of Washington. … Overall, roughly equal numbers of Democratic (47) and Republican (46) districts begin the cycle listed in our ratings in the Toss-up, Leans, and Likely categories. That means that more than three of every four House districts (79%) begin the cycle as rated Safe for the incumbent party.”

Biden Favored in 2020 Presidential Field

28%

A new Harvard CAPS/Harris poll finds Joe Biden is the most popular Democrat in a potential 2020 presidential primary, with 28% of Democratic and independent voters saying they’d most likely vote for him. Biden is followed by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) at 21% and Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-TX) at 7%. Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), Cory Booker (D-NJ) and Kamala Harris (D-CA) as well as former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg (D) — who are all openly considering 2020 campaigns — all polled in the low single-digits.

Minority Want to See Trump Re-Elected

1 in 3

A new Monmouth poll finds a little more than 3 in 10 Americans want to see President Trump win a second term in the White House. “Those who don’t want to see Trump reelected predictably varies by party, but 16% — not an insignificant number — of Republicans say Trump should be a one-term leader… while 92% of Democrats and 58% of independents said the same.”