Tag: Campaign 2008

Poll: Edwards at 3 Percent among South Carolina African-Americans

Jon Ponder

John Edwards has been playing to win Iowa, hoping to build momentum that will make him competitive with the frontrunner coming out the gate. Across all the polling I’ve seen, he is only doing well in Iowa.

The next stop after Iowa and New Hampshire is South Carolina. If Edwards, who was born in South Carolina but he grew up in North Carolina — and, yes, there is difference — can’t win or place in the season’s first Southern state primary, his campaign will likely end there.

African-Americans are arguably the most important Democratic constituency in South Carolina, and two new polls of South Carolina voters — a poll of African-Americans only from Winthrop College and ETV, South Carolina’s public television network,and a poll of all voters from the Los Angeles Times and Bloomberg — shows big trouble for the Edwards campaign:

Winthrop/ETV Poll

Overall
• Obama   35 percent
• Clinton   31 percent
• Edwards   3 percent
• Undecided   29 percent

African American men
• Obama   42.4 percent
• Clinton   30.5 percent
• Edwards   3.4 percent
• Undecided   21.7 percent

African American women
• Obama   30.6 percent
• Clinton   30.9 percent
• Edwards   2.9 percent
• Undecided   33.8 percent

Times/Bloomberg poll

Among all Democrats
• Clinton   45 percent
• Obama   27 percent
• Edwards   7 percent
• Undecided   13 percent

Among African Americans
• Clinton   43 percent
• Obama   32 percent
• Edwards   4 percent
• Undecided   18 percent

Of course, the percentage of “Undecideds” is significant, and it is possible they cold break toward Edwards if he moves up. For now, however, they’re not feeling it.

Eye on Newt: Citizen Gingrich Will Run If Supporters Raise $30 Million

Jon Ponder

Could a narcissistic ideologue with the personal warmth of a salamander win the Republican nomination next year? Under normal circumstances, if the salamander in question were Newt Gingrich, the answer would be no.

“I don’t see as a citizen how you could turn that down.”
— Newt Gingrich, upon challenging his supporters to raise a $30 million war chest.

But when you consider his competition in the current GOP field — a thrice-married, mentally deranged pro-gay, pro-choice former New York mayor; a flip-flopping, dim-witted former Massachusetts governor who is a Mormon; an actor and former abortion lobbyist and senator whose performance on the stump has left people snoring; and a current senator famous for his meltdowns who has lashed himself to an unpopular war that could well re-ignite just as the campaign goes into its final heat next year — the answer becomes maybe.

“Maybe” in 2008 is as close as Gingrich will ever get, however. So while he is still playing coy about whether he’ll get in, on Sunday he issued a challenge to Fox News viewers:

In the latest sign of how unsettled the Republican presidential race is, Newt Gingrich says he’ll run if supporters come up with $30 million in three weeks.

“I don’t see as a citizen how you could turn that down,” Gingrich said yesterday on “Fox News Sunday.”

…Gingrich has tasked longtime adviser Randy Evans with launching the ambitious fund-raising bid next Monday [Oct 1], and reporting back in three weeks.

“I want the commitments first,” Gingrich said. “If there is, in fact, enough people in the country who think we need this kind of approach and this kind of change-oriented policies, then I think I’d feel a responsibility to run.”

Even if he were to win the nomination, it’s hard to see how Gingrich would stand a chance in the general. The Beltway gang likes to pair him with Hillary Clinton, comparing them as equally polarizing figures on the left and right.

While Clinton has been caricatured by the right as a screeching feminist harpy, she won reelection to the Senate in 2004 with 65 percent of the vote, and even carried Republican counties upstate, arguably because voters got to know her true persona.

If anyone has caricatured Newt, it’s Newt himself. And most voters who remember the 1990s have a clear perception of him. The consensus is that underneath his aloof, know-it-all shell, Newt really is a bully, a blowhard and a jerk.

In a way, the Dems has won against Newt on a national ticket before. In 1996, the Clinton-Gore campaign made then-House Speaker Gingrich the de facto running mate of their opponent, former Senate majority leader, Bob Dole. (His official running mate was Jack Kemp.)

Clinton-Gore won with 49.2 percent against Dole-Kemp-Gingrich’s 40.7 percent. Ross Perot took 8.4 percent.

It was a Democrat, not Republicans, Who Moved Florida’s Primary Date

Buck Banks

When the hubbub over Florida’s new presidential primary date began, the Florida Democratic Party was quick to blame the Republican-led state legislature for a change that violated national Dem Party rules and introduced the state party to a world of hurt. It turns out, however, that it was actually a Democratic state senator who introduced the original legislation that moved the primary date to Jan. 29. Hmmm.

But when newly spineful state party chair Karen Thurman gathered the Democratic faithful around her last weekend to announce that the state party would defiantly promote the Jan. 29 vote as a “real” election that “counts,” the man responsible for the original legislation was conspicuously absent.

‘I hear that a lot, that I was duped by the Republicans. No one duped me.’
— Fla. Sen. Jeremy Ring

When Karen Thurman surrounded herself with Broward County Democrats last Sunday to tout the Jan. 29 primary: state Sen. Jeremy Ring. No one invited the Broward state Senator who sponsored the original bill moving Florida’s primary from March to January and undercut the Democrats’ argument that the early primary was all the Republicans’ fault.

So, the party needed an alternate explanation, and they found one — in an alternate universe: Ring was somehow fooled by Republicans into proposing the primary move, fully aware that Howard Dean and his Democratic National Committee would beat on Florida Democrats like Ringo Starr on a snare drum. Right.

“If you turn on the left wing liberal radio down in Broward, I am public enemy number one,” said Ring, who actually campaigned in 2006 on the need for an early primary and makes no apologies for his leading the effort. “I hear that a lot, that I was duped by the Republicans. No one duped me.”

Now that the Florida Democratic Party is resigned to the fact that the state will be off-limits to the leading Democratic candidates (except for blue-plate fundraisers — so much for the Dems who can’t afford that) and the party’s convention next month will be just another diversion at Disney World and the state will be stripped of its convention delegates, Thurman et. al. seem bent on ignoring the fact that a fellow party member actually started the whole thing.

It would be inconvenient to acknowledge Ring’s role in a process where the Florida Democratic Party has morphed into the Defiant Victim — victimized by the Republican-dominated legislature, victimized by its own national party and victimized by the prez candidates, yet standing up on its hind legs and saying “Go to hell” to its victimizers. The reminder that Ring ran on the notion of moving up the primary date, was elected on it and followed through on his campaign promise is an inconvenient truth that the FlaDems simply must ignore.

Romney Says Fund Raising Deficit is a Strategy

Trish

You have to hand it to Mitt Romney’s campaign folks. They are painting the millions he’s contributing to his own campaign as a choice to remain independent of special interests.

Right.

To date, the venture capitalist has contributed $9 million to his campaign, nearly a quarter of his overall contributions.

But that’s a good thing, he says.

Romney has contributed $9 million to his own campaign, nearly a quarter of the overall contributions

“I’m not beholden to any particular group for getting me into this race or for getting me elected. My family, that’s the only one I’m really beholden to, they’re the ones who let their inheritance slip away, dollar by dollar.”

Of course, the Romney boys are soaking up a lot of that future inheritance right now.

Yet, Romney’s rugged independence isn’t stopping him from holding $1,000-a-plate fund-raising dinners. The problem appears to be that the cash, and the poll numbers, aren’t increasing.

…a new CNN/WMUR-TV poll in the early voting state of New Hampshire showed that former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani has pulled into a statistical dead heat with Romney, with Romney garnering 23 percent of the vote and Giuliani 22 percent. In July, Romney had a clear lead, 33 percent to Giuliani’s 18 percent.

Why You Should Care About Florida’s Primary

Trish

You might already know the facts, but here they are again: Florida’s majority Republican legislature passed a bill earlier this year changing the state’s primary to Jan. 29. This placed the Florida election ahead of Iowa, South Carolina, Nevada, and good old New Hampshire, which is a violation of both Republican and Democratic party rules.

The Republican National Committee (RNC) punished Florida by taking away half its delegates to the 2008 Republican convention. The Democratic National Committee (DNC) took away all Florida’s delegates and made the Democratic frontrunners sign a pledge not to campaign in Florida. The pledge does not prohibit fund-raising.

Before, it looked like all Democrats needed to do to win in 2008 was show up — but we can’t even do that right

The DNC offered Florida Democratic party leaders a deal: if you nullify the results of the statewide Jan. 29 primary and hold party caucuses, pay-per-vote straw polls like Iowa, or some other behind-the-scenes event with extremely limited participation on Feb. 5, we will forgive you.

FDP leaders, wisely, went with “no deal.” They argue correctly that there is more for Florida voters to decide on Jan. 29 than just presidential preference, and besides, your average voter (like me) doesn’t agree that his or her vote should be tossed in favor of those from Democratic party insiders.

Here’s why you should care. The DNC, in refusing to allow candidates to campaign in Florida, is throwing the 2008 election to the Republicans. Picture it: months of TV spots with Rudy and Mitt telling Florida voters why we should love them, but also increasingly hammering away at Hillary, Barack, and John. Headlines like, “Thompson Eats Fried Gator Tail at Rotary Picnic” and “McCain Tours Military Base.”

And on the Democratic side? Silence, broken only the occasional dive for dollars at private parties.

“You’re going to continue to see Republican candidates coming to Florida, shaking hands, listening to voters,” said Erin Van Sickle, a Florida Republican Party spokeswoman.

Said Merle Black, a political scientist at Emory University and expert on Southern politics: “It’s a huge power struggle within the Democratic Party that cannot help the party’s candidates in Florida.

“But having nobody come to Florida, that’s theater of the absurd,” he added.

The fourth biggest state in the country, always a toss-up, is abandoned — no, handed on a silver platter — to the Republicans. And why? Because national Democrats have their panties in a wad over something Florida Democrats can’t change: the legislatively mandated election date.

If there was ever a time for the DNC to get its head out of its ass, the time is now. As Ben Weaver, North Florida Regional Director for the Florida Young Democrats, noted, before it looked like all Democrats needed to do to win in 2008 was show up. And we can’t even do that right!

Frustration with the DNC, and the candidates who fear losing its funding, is high.

Republicans have been aggressively mobilizing and courting Florida voters, while Democratic candidates have been wary of doing anything to antagonize party leaders in those early nominating states.

New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson’s campaign even refused recently to send a letter of greeting to a Jackson County Democratic picnic for fear of violating his pledge to the four early states.

And all the front-runners, even those who originally accepted, have now declined invitations to the state party convention in Orlando at the end of October.

But Weaver, and quite a few others, are betting that Florida will get its delegates back even if the DNC rigidly stays the course, as they say they will. He thinks that on the first day of the national convention the front-runner will reinstate our 210 delegates in a show of party unity. I hope it won’t be too late by then, that too many Floridians will have only heard the GOP’s side of things for so long that they’ve tuned out whatever last-minute campaigning the Democrats engage in. If so, Howard Dean can take the credit for blowing it — again.

If They Weren’t Republicans, I’d Feel Sorry for Them

Buck Banks

Seems the news from the GOP side of the aisle just keeps getting better and better or worse and worse, depending on your orientation:

Top Republicans are privately bracing for the possibility that they could lose additional House seats in next year’s elections as a result of untimely retirements, ongoing scandals and unexpectedly gloomy fundraising forecasts, according to several members and aides.

It seems every day brings more bad news for Republicans. As Politico first reported Friday, House Majority Leader John Boehner and his campaign chief, Oklahoma Rep. Tom Cole, are at war over campaign tactics and operations. Boehner is demanding a major shake-up at the National Republican Congressional Committee.

If the election were held this November, Republicans would be in for a disastrous result.

And besides being morally bankrupt as a political party, the National Republican Congressional Committee, which is charged with getting GOPers elected to Congress, is literally broke. As in having more debt than cash.

At the end of August, the National Republican Congressional Committee reported only $1.6 million cash on hand, with $4 million in debt. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, by comparison, had banked over $22 million, with only $3 million in debt.

Of course, a popular Republican presidential candidate could pull in the big bucks and help hold some jeopardized congressional seats, but the key word there is “popular.” Unfortunately for the Repugs, a recent Mason-Dixon poll found that Undecided is running neck and neck with Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani. That’s not going to energize the base.

A popular incumbent president could also be of some fundraising use to the GOP, but George W. Bush has become a pariah to his party, and is widely hated by Democrats and Republicans alike.

“If the election were held this November, Republicans would be in for a disastrous result,” said Cook Political Report House analyst David Wasserman. “The thinking goes: It will have to be another cycle before Republicans get their act together.”

Excuse me for being gleeful, but it looks bad for the Republicans. The only downside is that it looks good for the Democrats, who have shown they don’t know what to do with a majority when they get one. And they’d rather circle up for a firing squad than loosen their stupid rules on primary dates. Too bad it’s probably going to take another election cycle before the Dems get their act together, too.

Breaking: Florida Democrats Tell DNC “Screw You”

Trish

That cheer you hear is Florida Democrats receiving some good news. At long last, state party leaders are showing signs of intelligent life. They are announcing today that they will tell the DNC they are not coming up with work-arounds for the national leaders’ sanction of Florida’s Jan. 29 presidential preference primary.

Instead of spending millions of dollars to hold caucuses, straw votes, or whatever else it would take to please Howard Dean & Co., they are doing the right thing and encouraging Florida Democrats to vote in our state’s authentic election. From a party email and new web site:

You should care about Florida’s situation even if you aren’t in Florida

…your Party’s leaders have chosen overwhelmingly to reaffirm our strong commitment to fully participating in the state-run Democratic Presidential Primary on January 29, 2008, despite the penalties from the Democratic National Committee.

There will be no other primary. Florida Democrats absolutely must vote on January 29th. We make this election matter. Not the DNC, not the delegates, not the candidates, but Florida Democrats like you and me voting together. We make it count.

Stating which candidate they like best isn’t the only issue on the ballot for Florida voters. A new tax plan that would starve local governments into cutting social services, law enforcement, and public works is also in play. Democratic voters can’t sit this one out, although many would if they thought they were not also helping select the party’s presidential candidate.

I’m planning a post on why you should care about Florida’s situation even if you aren’t in Florida. For now, trust me. This all matters.

I’ve been critical of FDC leader Karen Thurman for a number of reasons and I don’t expect that to change. But I have to give the devil her due on this one. Thanks, Karen, for getting it right!

Maybe If Karen Thurman Had Said ‘Pretty Please’

Buck Banks

It seems the Florida Democratic Party just gets patheticker and patheticker. According to the Politico, state Chair Karen Thurman, in an effort to make the party’s October state convention at least marginally meaningful compared with its totally meaningless January primary, wrote to the four early-primary states to ask them to permit the Dem prez candidates to attend the convention.

Maybe Karen and Co. can console themselves with a ride on ‘It’s a Small World’ or a visit to ‘Country Bear Jamboree.’

See, following the Democratic National Committee’s smack-down of the the Florida Dems for moving the state’s primary to Jan. 29, ahead of the Feb. 5 earliest-allowed date, the four leading Dem candidates signed a pledge not to campaign in the state unless FlaDems fixed the date thingy. The state party leaders are supposed to teleconference next Saturday and come up with a final solution to the mess before the Sept. 29 5 p.m. deadline. Nothing like leaving it to the last possible minute.

In the meantime, Thurman asked the lead states — Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and South Carolina — to allow the candidates to come to Disney World for the FlaDem convention next month. (Appropriate venue, no?) The answer? No way, not until you folks get together a “compliant” plan to render your primary meaningless. One wonders why Thurman didn’t wait until after the party had figured out what it was going to do before crawling hat in hands to the early states. But then, one wonders often at Thurman’s behavior. For instance, why wait until just hours before the deadline to convene the party leadership to discuss what to do about Jan. 29.

Here’s the hard-assed letter signed by reps of the four states:

The Hon. Karen Thurman September 18th, 2008
Chair, Florida Democratic Party
Dear Congresswoman Thurman,

The Florida Democratic Party has requested that candidates who signed the “Four-State Pledge” with Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and South Carolina attend their Democratic Convention in October. We understand from the Florida Democratic Party that this is an important event for them.

Each candidate signed the pledge and indicated they understood that the intention of the pledge is to bring finality, predictability and common sense to the nominating calendar. The pledge refers to the 2008 Delegate Selection Rules for the Democratic National Committee, including, but not limited to, Rule 20 c 1 b.

These rules hold true for any state infringing on the pre-window. Candidates have signed a pledge to honor the calendar with regard to the pre-window and that applies to all states moving forward.

[…]

Umbrage, Hand-Wringing, Britney, Hillary, and MoveOn

Trish

The whole country is beginning to sound like that guy (who knew?) who sobbed over the justified criticism of Britney Spears’ lackluster MTV Video Music Awards performance.

More than anyone else, Hillary Clinton is taking a pounding over allegedly egregious transgressions. An incredibly slanted story on ABC takes the Democratic front-runner to task over supposedly beyond-the-pale references to Rudy Guiliani by Clinton supporter former Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack. ABC claims Vilsack made a personal attack on Guiliani by merely acknowledging the former mayor has some “issues.”

The attack came in an interview on NY1, when former Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack, a top Clinton presidential campaign adviser, laughed when an interviewer discussed the prospect of Giuliani as the GOP presidential nominee…

Whatever your interpretation of the ad, all the gasping for air and waving of scented handkerchiefs among the war’s most enthusiastic supporters is pretty comical

“I can’t even get into the number of marriages, and the fact his children — the relationship that he has with his children, and what the kind of circumstance New York was in before September the 11th, and whether or not he could have even been re-elected as mayor prior to September the 11th,” Vilsack said. “There are lots of issues involving Mayor Giuliani and I’m sure if he becomes the nominee we’ll be able to see those.”

Kaaay. I agree — if Rudy gets the Republican seal of approval, we’ll all be knowing way more about the thrice-married-once-to-his- cousin-absentee-dad-extraordinaire-9/11-best-thing-to- ever-happen-to-him-and-fellow-lame-o-George-Bush than we want.

But the veracity of Vilsack’s comments matter not. The important thing is this is a chance to skewer Hillary. Kind of.

On Radio Iowa today, Clinton was asked about an interview Thursday when she said she was focusing on a positive agenda.

“Have you told Gov. Vilsack privately that you don’t appreciate his negative comments that were made in New York on that television station yesterday in regards to Mr. Giuliani?” the station’s news director asked.

But instead of distancing herself from the remarks, Clinton replied that Vilsack “is more than capable of speaking for himself.”

Good damn answer.

All this false outrage at Hillary is best explained by a Time essay from Michael Kinsley, analyzing the “How dare you” stance Republicans are taking, particularly in regard to the MoveOn.org ad about Gen. Petraeus’ testimony before Congress.

Goodness gracious. Oh, my paws and whiskers. Some of the meanest, most ornery hombres around are suddenly feeling faint. Notorious tough guys are swooning with the vapors. The biggest beasts in the barnyard are all aflutter over something they read in the New York Times…

Welcome to the wonderful world of umbrage, the new language of American politics. You would not have thought that the likes of Rush Limbaugh and Bill O’Reilly would be so sensitive. Sticks and stones and so on. Yet they all seem to have taken one look at that ad and fainted dead away.

[…]

Fred Thompson Caught Smoking the Illegal Stuff

Trish

Fred Thompson talks tough about continuing Cold War era prohibitions against Cuba, as long as they’re the ones that prevent people’s families from visiting, circumvent humanitarian efforts, and keep Michael Moore out.

Fred Thompson: “You know, if it’s good, I smoke it”

Courting Miami Cuban-Americans on Radio Mambi on Friday in Little Havana, Fred Thompson was adamant about his approach to Fidel Castro’s Cuba: “We definitely would maintain sanctions, would maintain the embargo.”

But when it comes to how such measures affect Fred it’s a whole different story, according to the St. Petersburg Times’ Adam Smith.

So we were curious about a Weekly Standard article noting “box upon box” of cigars from Havana in Thompson’s office.

…Thompson brushed off the apparent contradiction between the embargo and his fondness for Cuban stogies. “If I have a friend that occasionally passes me a cigar, I don’t check its heritage,” he said. “You know, if it’s good, I smoke it.”

The “if it’s good, I smoke it” argument has failed many a stoner and I can’t say it works for Fred. I mean, come on. Like Fred doesn’t lust after Cuban see-gars anymore than he lusts after his usually scantily-clad young wife.

We’re supposed to believe that for Fred, it’s not about about the status and mystique of those 2003 Cohiba Double Coronas or those 2000 Romeo y Julieta Exhibiction No.2s. They’s just good smokes, ya’ll.

At least one other listener was unconvinced.

Miami-Dade Democratic chairman Joe Garcia questioned whether law-and-order voters will embrace a candidate “who smokes something illegal.”