172 Delegates Up for Grabs in GOP Primaries Today


Number of Republican delegates up for grabs today, Reuters reports. As we discussed last week, he can’t clinch the nomination tonight. But the most competitive state tonight is Maryland, where Trump has a cozy 20 point lead. That’s the main reason we see Kasich and Ted Cruz trying to play nice with each other in Indiana, Oregon and New Mexico: to deny Trump the requisite 1,237 delegates to clinch the nomination.

Why Trump’s “Rigged System” Meme Works

It also helps that Trump’s system-is-rigged message is relatively simple and plays into the media’s master narrative of the Republican race as a conflict between the Republican base and the GOP establishment. The Republicans’ delegate selection rules, by contrast, require an attention to detail that narrative-driven stories about the Republican race can misconstrue.

— Nate Silver, Five Thirty Eight

Trump Leading in California


Donald Trump’s lead in the GOP presidential race in California, followed by Ted Cruz at 23% and John Kasich at 21%, according to a new Capitol Weekly/Sextant Strategies poll. “California is worth 172 delegates when it votes on June 7 — with the winner of each of the state’s 53 congressional districts receiving three delegates. The statewide winner receives 13 delegates. The Capitol Weekly/Sextant Strategies poll shows Trump winning in almost every corner of the state.”

Trump Threatens GOP Leaders with a ‘Rough’ Convention

The Republican National Committee, they’d better get going, because I’ll tell you what: You’re going to have a rough July at that convention. You’d better get going, and you’d better straighten out the system because the people want their vote. The people want their vote, and they want to be represented properly.

— Donald Trump, warning party leaders to reform GOP’s system for selecting a nominee or face a ‘rough July’ when it holds its convention in Cleveland,” the Washington Post reports.

A Denied Trump Will Not Go Quietly Into that Good Night

Moreover, if Republicans think that denying Trump the nomination will solve their problems, they forget that the guy is neither a magnanimous winner nor a gracious loser. Forget about Trump running as an independent in the fall. He won’t have the organization or time to get on the ballot in most states. But, he’s got something more important than ballot access: Twitter and TV. He will be happy to continue his campaign against the GOP via social media. Do we really think that if Trump loses he’ll go underground never to utter his views again? Do you think that if he loses a floor fight he’ll warmly embrace Ted Cruz? I doubt it.

— Amy Walter, Cook Political Report

GOP’s Unfair Primary System Has Helped Trump

Donald Trump has a point … After getting shut out at the Colorado conventions, Trump has been complaining that the Republican primary process is undemocratic and rigged. I don’t agree with the ‘rigged’ part, as the rules have been known for some time, but it’s true that some Republican votes are worth a lot more than others. ‘One person, one vote’ — or the idea that every voter should have equal say in an election — is not the rule in the GOP primary system. The irony, however, is that Trump has benefited from this imbalance.

— Harry Enten, Five Thirty Eight.