Why Trump’s “Rigged System” Meme Works

It also helps that Trump’s system-is-rigged message is relatively simple and plays into the media’s master narrative of the Republican race as a conflict between the Republican base and the GOP establishment. The Republicans’ delegate selection rules, by contrast, require an attention to detail that narrative-driven stories about the Republican race can misconstrue.

— Nate Silver, Five Thirty Eight

Two Models Predict Trump Will Reach 1,237


Number of delegates (or more) Sam Wang predicts Donald Trump will accrue in the remaining GOP primary votes (1,237 are required to win the nomination outright), using two independent methods for estimating the results of the remaining Republican primaries without relying on either demographics or polls. The first is a border-county analysis and the second relies on Google Correlate.

GOP Voters Favor Candidate with Most Votes for Nominee


Of Republican voters believe that, if no GOP presidential candidate wins a majority of delegates before the convention, the one with the most votes should be the party’s nominee, according to a new NBC/WSJ poll. That’s compared with 33% of Republicans who say the nominee instead should be the candidate whom convention delegates think would be the party’s best standard-bearer.

Trump Threatens GOP Leaders with a ‘Rough’ Convention

The Republican National Committee, they’d better get going, because I’ll tell you what: You’re going to have a rough July at that convention. You’d better get going, and you’d better straighten out the system because the people want their vote. The people want their vote, and they want to be represented properly.

— Donald Trump, warning party leaders to reform GOP’s system for selecting a nominee or face a ‘rough July’ when it holds its convention in Cleveland,” the Washington Post reports.

A Denied Trump Will Not Go Quietly Into that Good Night

Moreover, if Republicans think that denying Trump the nomination will solve their problems, they forget that the guy is neither a magnanimous winner nor a gracious loser. Forget about Trump running as an independent in the fall. He won’t have the organization or time to get on the ballot in most states. But, he’s got something more important than ballot access: Twitter and TV. He will be happy to continue his campaign against the GOP via social media. Do we really think that if Trump loses he’ll go underground never to utter his views again? Do you think that if he loses a floor fight he’ll warmly embrace Ted Cruz? I doubt it.

— Amy Walter, Cook Political Report

Scott Walker Invokes Ghost of Lincoln to Justify Brokered Convention

Remember, Abraham Lincoln won in Chicago in 1860 because of an open convention. He was not the front-runner when he came in. In fact, he wasn’t even near the front until several ballots in. That gives us hope. Our first Republican president, and arguably one of our best, was someone who came in through an open process.

— Gov. Scott Walker (R), quoted by the Washington Post.