Four Points to Give Democrats Hope

Political Wire‘s Taegan Goddard notes that though polling and historical midterm trends show Democrats potentially losing their majority in the House and with only a 50:50 chance of maintaining their slim margin in the Senate, there still are some reasons not to succumb to pessimism.

Four things Democrats can point to:

  • The economy isn’t as bad as some polling suggests. It’s true that inflation is at a 40-year high, but the economy is growing and there are still more job openings than people looking for work.
  • Abortion rights will be a motivating factor for many voters — particularly young women. It’s not often that a fundamental right is taken away in this country and we saw Democratic candidates outperform in a series of special elections over the summer. We also saw voters in Kansas come out in extraordinary numbers to make sure abortion stayed legal in their state.
  • The polls could be wrong — maybe even very wrong. In two of the last three election cycles polling proved wildly misleading. Though pollsters insist they have improved their “likely voter” screens, we have seen fewer polls this year from fewer pollsters. That could make even the polling averages unreliable.
  • The number of Americans who vote early continues to rise. It’s extremely hard to gain insights from early voting trends, but overall it is generally viewed as an advantage for Democrats.
  • Rachel Maddow and Jon Favreau Discuss Her New Podcast Series about a 1930s Right-Wing Attempt to Overthrow the US Government

    From Jon Favreau’s series, “Offline,” Rachel Maddow talks about her new podcast series “Ultra” and describes how she learned about the serious, nationwide campaign by pro-Nazi Christian Nationalists to overthrow the U.S. government in the run-up to World War II.

    Listen to “Ultra”: https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-presents-ultra

    Ask Dr. Democrat

    Dear Dr. Democrat,

    The polls are unreliable. The pundits are unfathomable. What’s going to happen in the midterm elections?

    Worried in Wimauma

    Dear Worried:

    You should be.

    Republicans will take both houses in the midterms, THEN the benefits of the Inflation Reduction Act will kick in, prescription drug prices will fall, Biden’s De-frickin-cember releases from the strategic petroleum reserve will bring down gas prices, and things will start to get better. Republicans will take and get all the credit, and we will be there going, “No, it was us! Really it was! Vote for us again!”

    The two botched impeachments, the Mueller report and the way-too-late Jan. 6 Commission will fade like the afternoon sun does without daylight saving time, and new impeachments and investigations, all centered on Democrats, will dominate the news cycles right up to election day 2024…when Ron DeSantis becomes our next president.

    Sorry, no balm of Gilead here.

    Be careful,

    Dr. Democrat

    Trump’s Vaunted Fundraising Machine Is Faltering

    Illustration by the Daily Beast

    If it were a business and not politics (I know, it’s a difference without a distinction), Donald Trump would be fired for mismanagement of his oft-touted fundraising prowess. Daily Beat’s Pay Dirt newsletter has a must-read piece on how Trump’s Save America Joint Fundraising Committee is spending a dollar to generate 10 cents of income, according to the latest Election Financing Commission report.

    In fact, the spending was so steep that it ate up around 90 percent of what he raised. So while the committee took in an impressive $24 million, it spent about $22 million to get there. That means the famous dealmaker spent a dollar to make a little more than a dime.

    Compare that trade-off to the previous quarter, where the same committee spent just $9.7 million but pulled in $17 million. That’s a $7 million return. Now, it’s $2 million.

    Read the rest here.

    MAGA Surrender Caucus Signals It Will Support Putin and Defund Ukraine When It Takes Power

    Kevin McCarthy
    Kevin McCarthy

    Yahoo News: “House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy said Republicans will not hand a ‘blank check’ to Ukraine if his party wins next month’s elections, apparently confirming that bipartisan congressional support for Ukraine’s fight against Russia is wavering.

    “McCarthy, speaking to Punchbowl News, acknowledged the significance of the conflict, but said Americans are dealing with economic problems at home and can’t afford to prioritize helping Ukraine.

    “’I think people are gonna be sitting in a recession and they’re not going to write a blank check to Ukraine,’ McCarthy said. ‘They just won’t do it.’

    […]