On his blog, Steve Shale, a veteran of decades of Florida politics, nails why Florida is a battleground state in this presidential election and why it’s especially problematic for pollsters and political insiders this year:
Most states are places. Think about Texas, or even a state like Iowa, there is a sense of place to it, a commonality of experience – or as marketers might say, almost a brand. Most states have it. Florida really doesn’t.”
“Florida isn’t a place in the same sense. It is a political circle, drawing 20 million people from vast, and I mean vast experiences and cultures into one spot. And almost everyone here has come from somewhere else.”
“Florida is the new Ellis Island, except our ships come as cars and planes, from inside the borders of the country, and outside. Over the next 15 years, we might add as many as 5 million more residents, grow to as much as 30% Hispanic, with a total population of well more than 50% coming from what are typically considered ethnic minorities.
59% to 43%
A new Gallup poll finds Sen. Ted Cruz’s favorability rating among Republicans has dropped significantly — 16 points — since his speech at the Republican National Convention in which he refused to endorse Donald Trump as the party’s nominee.
In that speech, I concluded with the following line: ‘If Hillary Clinton can’t give us the truth, why should we give her the presidency?’ But weeks after the end of the 2016 GOP convention, I am confronted by an inconvenient fact: Despite what I wrote in that nationally televised speech about Hillary Clinton, I may yet have to vote for her because of the epic deficiencies of my own party’s nominee.
— GOP speechwriter Richard Cross, writing in the Baltimore Sun.
The amount the campaigns expect to spend in the race for U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio’s (R-Fla.) seat. Both frontrunners, Rubio and U.S. Rep. Patrick Murphy (D-Fla.) have stopped advertising in Aug. 30 primary races, saving their money for the big one. The spend will likely be evenly divided, with both Rubio and Murphy coughing up $40 million.
Reading from a teleprompter at a rally in Charlotte, Donald Trump sounded very much like he was trying his best to be a politician. He even promised not to lie.
“…One thing I can promise you is this. I will always tell you the truth,” he said.
That promise may prove to be one of the biggest lies he tells during the campaign. That remains to be seen. For now, here is right-leaning Politifact’s review of the biggest lies Trump told during the first year of his campaign, from June 2015 to June 2016.