Day: August 16, 2016

Real Trump Supporters Vet Fake Trump Ads

Buck Banks

It’s become clear by this point in the presidential campaign that voters who support Donald Trump are inured to his most outrageous proposals and ridiculous policy positions. But how inured are they? Triumph the Insult Comic Dog explores that question in a series of focus groups testing potential TV ads.

Of course, to date, Trump has spent $00.00 on television advertising while the networks have given him $2 billion worth of free coverage, so it’s unlikely he’ll shell out for these ads — unless he has another week like the last one …

Is Clinton Just a Field Goal Away from Winning?

Buck Banks

88%

Hillary Clinton’s chance of winning, according to the Upshot’s model: “It’s about the same probability of hitting a field goal from the 20-yard line. … That’s a pretty good way to think about it. If Mrs. Clinton ultimately wins, we will probably look back and say she had more or less already won it by this point. If she loses, these next two months will be talked about for decades. … The game-winning field-goal analogy has one big weakness: She may win this by a lot more than a field goal.” — Nate Cohn

It’s No Time for Complacency, Democrats

Buck Banks

At some point, complacency could become an issue, although it’s probably too early to worry about that. In the nearer term, I’d be worried that the race has been so volatile. Sure, things look good now. But conditions in May, and then again in July, produced a close race. Is there anything inherently preventing those conditions from arising again? I suppose I’d wonder about what Wikileaks has up its sleeve and what sort of geopolitical events could work in Trump’s favor.

— Nate Silver