Why Doug Jones will Lose His Senate Seat to a Republican in Alabama

When a less chewed up and spit out Jeff Sessions vacated his Senate seat in 2017 to become Donald Trump’s first U.S. Attorney General, it forced a special election in Alabama to replace him. And that’s about the only way a Democrat like Doug Jones was ever going to win in that state.

The reason is straight ticket voting (STV). Alabama (and six other states*) still offer this option for those who have one concern when casting a ballot: party affiliation.
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Constituent Heckles Jones Over Kavanaugh Vote

“You have enough information. We love you. But you will vote no. And you have enough information to vote no. You can kiss my ass if you vote yes. You can kiss my ass if you vote yes. You can kiss my ass.”

— Sen. Doug Jones (D-AL) “was heckled at a town hall meeting Monday night in Birmingham when a woman threw a pair of stuffed lips in the senator’s direction while venting her anger that Alabama’s junior senator is keeping an open mind on U.S. Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh,” the Birmingham News reports.

Alabama Cities and ‘Burbs Rejected Moore

68%

New York Times: “Voters in Alabama’s cities and most affluent suburbs overwhelmingly rejected Mr. Moore’s candidacy, an ominous sign for Republicans on the ballot next year in upscale districts. In Jefferson County, which includes Birmingham and some of the state’s wealthiest enclaves, Mr. Jones, the Democratic candidate, captured more than 68% of the vote. And in Madison County, home to Huntsville and a large NASA facility, Mr. Jones won 57 percent of the vote.”

Moore Regains Lead in Alabama

49% to 44%

A new Change Research survey in Alabama finds Roy Moore (R) has regained his lead over Doug Jones (D) in the U.S. Senate race, 49% to 44%. “What has changed? The largest difference is turnout: many Republicans who ten days ago said they might not vote, now say they plan to show up on Election Day and vote for Moore.” Also important: “Compared to ten days ago, fewer Republicans believe the allegations against Moore. While all voters believed the allegations by a 46–30 margin ten days ago, they now believe them by only 42–38. Among Trump voters, the split was 16–51 (believe-don’t believe) in the middle of the month, and it’s 9–63 now.”