Tag: Donald Trump

For Trump, Media Coverage Equals Poll Points, Not Favorability

Buck Banks

70%

Share of all December Republican race media coverage Donald Trump has garnered — even higher than his long-term average of 54 percent, Reports FiveThirtyEight‘s Nate Silver. “According to the regression, that extra media coverage is worth about 8 percentage points in the polls: almost exactly how much Trump has gained in national polls since the month began and enough to put him in the mid-30s in the polling average instead of the high 20s.” Silver notes: “The interesting thing, as we’ve pointed out before, is that a candidate can potentially gain in the polls in the short term by increasing his media coverage, even if he potentially hurts his favorability rating. Trump seems to realize this.”

Why Do So Many People Believe Donald Trump?

Buck Banks

BS DetectorGOP primary candidate Carly Fiorina offered the Washington Post the most succinct analysis of Donald Trump’s campaign behavior: “This is the pattern, isn’t it? The pattern is — he says something insulting, offensive and outrageous; the media pays attention; then he claims we all misunderstood him.”

By “we” Fiorina probably meant members of the press and other smart, analytical people who listen closely, pay attention and maintain a healthy skepticism. That is as opposed to less educated, non-analytical, more emotional people who believe in angels and American exceptionalism who don’t misunderstand Trump, but instead take his every outrageous declaration as true, sincerely delivered and above argument.

A recent study titled “On the reception and detection of pseudo-profound bullshit,” published in Judgment and Decision Making 2015 by Gordon Pennycook, James Allan Cheyne, Nathaniel Barr, Derek J. Koehler, & Jonathan A. Fugelsang, may offer some insight into why people believe what Trump says. The study focused on “pseudo-profound bullshit, which consists of seemingly impressive assertions that are presented as true and meaningful but are actually vacuous.”

Before delving into the study itself and its results, let’s consider what Donald Trump has said during the current campaign. Here’s a sampling:

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White House Calls on Rivals to Denounce Trump

Buck Banks

I think the question for other candidates for president is simply this, do they have the courage of their convictions to simply stand up to Mr. Trump’s supporters and say that they’re going to side with the constitution over Mr. Trump even if Mr. Trump is the Republican nominee? … If they don’t have that much courage, if they are so cowed by Mr. Trump and his supporters that they are not willing to stand by the values enshrined in the constitution, than they have no business serving the president of United States themselves.

— >White House spokesman Josh Earnest, saying that Donald Trump is “disqualified” to be president based on comments about banning Muslims from entering the United States, Politico reports.

2016 Election Is a Choice Between Our ‘Best Traditions and Worst Fears’

Buck Banks

The thing about the strongman candidacies is that they are secretly weak. They feed off feelings of fear and inadequacy. That’s why they target minority rights first. … And that is what’s happening here. We’ve seen brushfires of fear sweep through this election season, with mayors calling for internment camps, governors refusing refugees, and presidential candidates trying to win over the angriest inmates of the hyperpartisan asylum. This competition to connect with the reptile mind is beneath the country Lincoln once called ‘the last best hope of earth.’ … This is a time for choosing between our best traditions and our worst fears.”

— John Avlon, The Daily Beast

Carson May Be Leading Among Actual Voters

Buck Banks

27%

Ben Carson’s lead, followed by Marco Rubio at 17% and Donald Trump at 15%, in a new Monkey Cage poll in Iowa that finds that non-voters may be driving Donald Trump’s popularity. “To build a sample, we began with the list of registered voters in Iowa and stratified our sample by factors like age and sex. Other pollsters have done something similar. However, what we did — but other have not — is stratify the sample based on another factor: Whether or not people had voted in at least one primary election since 2006.”