Year: 2008

N.C. Sen: Kagan Moves Up within 5 Points of Liddy Dole

Jon Ponder

Poll Tracker:

North Carolina Sen. Elizabeth Dole may be hearing foot steps behind her as two polls show her Democratic challenger, Kay Hagan, a five term member of the state senate, closing the gap between them. Public Policy Polling has Dole ahead by 48 percent to 43 percent compared to the 17 point lead she had in February. The survey was conducted May 8-9 and has a margin of error of 4 percent. Rasmussen Reports yesterday released a poll conducted May 8 that showed Hagan ahead of Dole, although by a statistically insignificant 48 percent to 47 percent. A month earlier, Dole had a 13 point lead in this poll.

Hagan scored a runaway victory in the state’s May 6 primary for the right to challenge Dole, and PPP says the visibility she built up during that campaign may have helped. Now it remains to be seen if she can raise the $10 million she says she needs to compete with Dole. As of now, CQ Politics rates the race as “Republican favored” although we note that Dole is vulnerable, in part because her ties to President Bush. Rasmussen noted that Hagan has tried hard to make that connection by noting that Dole votes with Bush 92 percent of the time.

Quote du Jour

Buck Banks

It’s silly to go on pretending that under the skin we are all brothers. The truth is more likely that under the skin we are all cannibals, assassins, traitors, liars, hypocrites, poltroons.

— Henry Miller (1891-1980), American writer

Three Strikes: Third GOP House Seat in a Row Falls to Dems In Special Elections

Jon Ponder

3. May 13:

Democrat Travis Childers wins a U.S. House seat in Mississippi’s deeply Republican 1st Congressional District.

Childers defeated Republican Greg Davis in a special election to fill the final few months of a two-year term in Congress. The seat was vacated when Roger Wicker was appointed to the U.S. Senate after Trent Lott resigned.

2. May 4:

State Rep. Don Cazayoux won the special election in Louisiana’s 6th district yesterday, a victory that marks the second time this year that Democrats have won a seat previously held by a Republican.

Cazayoux, a conservative Democrat, defeated former state Rep. Woody Jenkins, 49 percent to 46 percent for a seat held by Rep. Richard Baker (R) for the past two decades. (Baker resigned to take over as the head of the Managed Funds Association.) Cazayoux will serve out the remaining months of Baker’s term before running for a full two-year stint in the fall.

1. March 8:

The Democratic Party scored a major symbolic win last night when a soft-spoken Democratic physicist claimed the suburban Chicago seat held by the former Republican House speaker, J. Dennis Hastert, for nearly 21 years.

Democrat Bill Foster took 52 percent of the vote to 48 percent for Republican dairy magnate Jim Oberweis, in a district that President Bush won in 2004 with 55 percent. The Democratic victory in what was once a safe Republican seat gave the clearest sign yet that the anti-GOP wave that swept Republicans from control of Congress in 2006 may still be rolling.

“A victory in the seat held by Speaker Hastert will send a political shock wave that will be felt across the country,” said Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. “It’s a stunning repudiation of President Bush, his allies and John McCain, who wants to carry on his legacy.”

Ask Dr. Democrat: Did We Always Have Superdelegates?

Pensito Editors

Dear Dr. Democrat:

Did we always have super delegates? I don’t remember ever hearing the term before this year.

Unsure About Supers

Dear Unsure:

The super delegates were added after the McGovern nomination in order to prevent the party from ever again nominating high-minded, wine-sipping, arugula-munching intellectual elites who don’t stand a chance in the general election. Obviously, it has been an abysmal failure.
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But seriously, the purpose of the super delegate system is to stop a too-liberal, unelectable candidate in a close election from getting the nomination at the convention. The idea was that if it should ever come to pass again that the hoi poloi gave the popular vote to an unelectable effete, the super delegates, who are mostly current or former elected officials, would step in and save the day by choosing a more palatable (i.e., conservative) candidate.

It’s popular to cast Clinton as being evil because she might play this card, but the card was put there to be played. That being said, I don’t think she’ll do it — and if she tries, I don’t think the supers will go for it. Feinstein and even Schumer have signaled they won’t vote for her.

But, as the saying goes, the rules are the rules.

Dr. D

10 Reasons Why Going to China Might Be Bad for Your Health

Buck Banks

Don’t you just love the Olympics? The Summer Olympics present an opportunity to see the youth of the world competing at the highest levels of athleticism and sportsmanship. This summer, it also presents an opportunity to contract some really world-class diseases if you go to the Beijing for the competitions.
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The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is there to help, though. They have a Web site dedicated to helping you prepare physically for your trip to China. Here are 10 health risks and preventative measures the CDC suggests you take before heading out to Beijing (we hope you’re not needle-shy):

Hepatitis A — Get vaccinated (2 shots), eat foods that are fully cooked and served hot, drink beverages that have been bottled and sealed (water, carbonated drinks, or sports drinks).

Hepatitis B — get vaccinated (3 shots), use condoms if you have sex, avoid sharing needles or getting tattoos.

Typhoid Fever — Get vaccinated with one shot or take pills (4 doses), eat foods that are fully cooked and served hot, drink beverages that have been bottled and sealed (water, carbonated drinks, or sports drinks).

Japanese Encephalitis — Get vaccinated (3 shots) if you are going to be in China more than 30 days or are planning to spend time outside in rural areas, prevent mosquito bites by using an insect repellent containing DEET and wearing long-sleeved shirts and long pants, if you are sleeping outdoors or in a room with no window screens, use an insecticide-treated bed net.

Malaria — If you are going to a malaria risk area, take medicine to prevent malaria. There are several medicines available; talk to your doctor about which one is right for you. You will start the medicine before you go to a malaria risk area, take it while you are there, and continue taking it after you leave the risk area. Prevent mosquito bites: Use an insect repellent containing DEET and wear long-sleeved shirts and long pants. If you are sleeping outdoors or in a room with no window screens, use an insecticide-treated bed net.

Influenza (Bird & Seasonal) — Do not touch birds (alive or dead), do not go to poultry farms or live bird markets, only eat poultry that has been fully cooked, wash your hands and utensils after handling raw poultry, get a flu vaccine to avoid seasonal flu.

Rabies — Do not touch animals, even pets, as they might not be vaccinated as they are in the United States. If you get an animal bite or scratch, go to a hospital or doctor’s office immediately. If you are going to spend a lot of time outside or in rural areas, consider getting rabies vaccine (3 shots). Important: Even if you get the vaccine, you will still need to see a doctor right away if you are bitten or scratched.

Schistosomiasis — Swim only in chlorinated pools, avoid swimming, wading or participating in activities in fresh water; get tested if you do go in fresh water — even if you do not feel sick. Once you come home, see an infectious disease doctor or tropical medicine doctor to find out if you were infected. If you were infected, take medicine to stop the infection.

Traveler’s Diarrhea — Eat only fully cooked food that is served hot or fruits and vegetables you can wash and peel yourself, drink beverages that have been bottled and sealed (water, carbonated drinks, or sports drinks), wash your hands with soap and water or use an alcohol-based hand gel before you eat or prepare a meal.

Breathing Problems — If you have asthma or another lung problem, see your doctor before you go to China. You may need to take extra medicine to control your symptoms. If you have coughing, wheezing, or trouble breathing while you are in China, see a health-care provider right away. If possible, plan outdoor activities early in the day in areas with no traffic.

Chronicling All Things Younger than John McCain

Buck Banks

mccain_no_old_men.jpgOK, we know John McCain is old. If he is elected president, he will be the oldest person to ever take the oath of office. Which means he’s older than many things.

There now is a Web site dedicated to chronicling all things that are younger than John McCain, of which there are a surprising number. Such as the meat product Spam, the state of Alaska, the element plutonium and the cartoon character Bugs Bunny.

Explore the astonishingly large world of things younger than John McCain here.

Quote du Jour

Buck Banks

It’s the place where my prediction from the sixties finally came true: ‘In the future everyone will be famous for fifteen minutes.’ I’m bored with that line. I never use it anymore. My new line is, ‘In fifteen minutes everybody will be famous.’

— Andy Warhol (1927-1987), American artist

Ask Dr. Democrat: Will Florida and Michigan Be Seated at the Convention?

Dr. Democrat

Dear Dr. Democrat:

I’m not sure I want Florida’s delegation to get seated. How would you do it? And how would you seat Michigan? Would you really think it’s fair to have those delegates count when Clinton’s was the only name on the ballot? I am really stymied here.

Really Stymied

Dear R.S.:

In terms of the actual proceedings of the convention, the “who gets seated” issue goes away when Obama reaches the magic number on May 20. There will not be a floor fight, which makes it irrelevant (or at least trivial) how many delegates Clinton got. The nomination will be settled with the first roll call.
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The convention will be even more harmonious if Clinton is the VP nominee, which looks more likely today than it has, but is by no means certain. Etiquette requires Obama to offer it to her first, a la John Kennedy offering his VP spot to Lyndon Johnson, his bitterest rival. Like LBJ in 1960, HRC might just take the 2008 nominee up on his offer.

The new dynamic about seating delegates after Obama becomes the nominee is that the ultimate decision about how to keep Iowa, New Hampshire, Florida and Michigan happy no longer rests with Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean, but with Obama. I’m predicting he will seat Florida and Michigan, and then seek some permanent solution to the “me first” early primary controversy — a rotating list of states that can vote in January with Iowa and New Hampshire over the next century or so, a single permanent Super Tuesday for all states or rotating regional Super Tuesdays (the West votes first in 2012, the South in 2016, etc.), etc.

This year will the last we’ll have super delegates, that’s for sure.

Dr. D