Day: October 20, 2008

Breaking:

Sen. Barack Obama’s spokesman confirmed that the Democratic candidate for president will travel to Hawaii to visit his grandmother who is seriously ill.

Obama’s spokesman Robert Gibbs told reporters on a flight from Orlando, Fla. to West Palm Beach to announce that on the senator will head to Hawaii Thursday afternoon.

Madeleine Dunham is seriously ill, Gibbs said. She was released from the hospital last week and is at home.

“Senator Obama’s grandmother, Madelyn Dunham, has always been one of the most important people in his life. Along with his mother and his grandfather, she raised him in Hawaii from the time he was born until the moment he left for college. As he said at the Democratic Convention, she poured everything she had into him.

Recently, his Grandmother has become ill, and in the last few weeks, her health has deteriorated to the point where her situation is very serious…” Gibbs said in a written statement.

Any doubts that Florida’s Amendment 2, which supposedly makes gay marriage more illegal than the laws already on the books by barring it in the state constitution, is not a home-grown effort are out the window now. Compare these two ads, one running in Florida and one in Arizona, and see what you think.

Florida:

Arizona:

James Dobson’s national Focus on the Family group is behind both ads, and both “movements.” The problem with these amendments is that they bar heterosexual domestic partnerships too, something Dobson doesn’t want you to know. After all, your grandma, or her best friend, might be holding off from marrying again because she and her partner will lose benefits.

The fact that consenting adults, straight or gay, are “living in sin” is what really bothers Dobson’s group. You see, that doesn’t suit his persnickety and judgmental ideas about the choices we should be allowed to make. That’s why, as soon as these domestic partnerships initiatives are on the books, the next target is divorce.

That’s right, Dobson is planning to go after “no-fault” divorce, and return us to the ’40s or ’50s or whenever it was that people in miserable relationships had to prove in court why they should be allowed to get out. It was bad back then and it would be worse now, but that’s the plan.

If you know anyone who falls for the line that all these initiatives address is gay marriage — and you or your friend or family member is O.K. with that — wise up and help spread the truth.

Obama/Biden 47%
McCain/Palin 42%
Undec 8%

– Obama’s 5% lead in today’s Diageo/Hotline release is his smallest advantage in the tracker since the poll conducted 10/5-7.

– After leading white LVs by just 2% as recently as 8/10, McCain has now held a 9% margin for three consecutive days.

– The enthusiasm gap between the candidates is now 16%. 68% of Obama supporters say they are enthusiastically supporting the Dem nominee, while 52% of McCain supporters say the same. One week ago, in the survey completed 10/12, the gap was 21% — with 65% enthusiastically for Obama and just 44% enthusiastically for McCain.

Today’s Diageo/Hotline tracking poll, conducted 10/17-19 by FD, surveyed 789 LVs and has a margin of error of +/- 3.5%. Party ID Breakdown for the sample is 40%D, 37%R, 18%I.

This campaign video doesn’t say it, but the Obama campaign is encouraging early voting because it could make the election slightly harder for Republicans to steal. One tactic the GOP used for depressing votes in Ohio in 2004 was to deploy fewer or faulty voting machines in heavily Democratic districts, which created long lines. In some precincts, people reportedly waited over nine hours in the cold rain to vote. Voting early can help prevent long lines on Nov. 4.

On the other hand, early voting can also threaten election integrity because chain-of-custody issues make the ballots vulnerable to alteration during the early voting period.

The campaign particularly hopes young people will vote early because first time voters might be discouraged by long lines, and because in past elections young voters have been known not to show up at all on Election Day.