Month: April 2008

Poll: Obama Drops to 20 Points Behind Clinton in Penn. in First ARG Survey after ‘Bitter’ Comment

Jon Ponder

The American Research Group poll last week that showed Obama even with Clinton was probably an outlier. Still, the drop this week is precipitous:

First poll of Pennsylvania voters post-“bitter” comments shows Obama taking a hit. The American Research Group had him and Clinton neck-and-neck with 45 percent each in its April 5-6 survey. The group’s April 11-13 poll has Obama at 37 percent to Clinton’s 57 percent.

Quote du Jour

Buck Banks

The saddest life is that of a political aspirant under democracy. His failure is ignominious and his success is disgraceful.

— H.L. Mencken (1880-1956), newspaperman, book reviewer and political commentator

Polling Shows Obama Still Leading Clinton

Trish

A daily poll shows Obama is taking some popularity hits over his “people are bitter” comments but not as much as he did over the Rev. Wright black liberation theology ordeal. Rasmussen today reports no big upheavals.

In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, Obama leads Clinton 48% to 44%. While statistical noise has created daily fluctuations, this race has remained quite stable for the past month or so. A look at the overall trends shows Obama enjoying a modest but consistent advantage.

Part of the reason Obama isn’t going down in flames is because even though the truth hurts, it’s hard to argue with what he said.

Most Americans agree with Obama’s statement that “People are fed up. They’re angry and they’re frustrated and they’re bitter, and they want to see a change in Washington.”

New polling data released this morning shows that 56% of voters nationwide disagree with Obama’s controversial comment that people in small towns “cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren’t like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations.” Partisan and ideological perceptions suggest that Obama’s comments may have more impact on the General Election than the Primaries…

The data also suggests that the Obama campaign was shrewd to try and focus attention on the portion of the comments about people being bitter. Most Americans agree with Obama’s statement that “People are fed up. They’re angry and they’re frustrated and they’re bitter, and they want to see a change in Washington.” Following the initial weekend furor over the remarks, Rasmussen Markets data still gives Obama an 82.4 % chance of winning the Democratic nomination.

More interesting are the favorability ratings. While Obama’s “unfavorable” numbers have risen to 50%, they still aren’t at their all-time high level of 52%, posted on March 27 in the aftermath of the Rev. Wright controversy.

Clinton’s unfavorable numbers, in contrast, have been stuck in the low 50s for weeks and her efforts to paint Obama, who was raised by a single mom, as an anti-hunting, out of touch elitist aren’t helping lift her up. Maybe voters are weighing her words against that figure from her tax return: $109 million. In any case, today her unfavorable number is 51%. The last time it was any lower was March 13, at 50%.

McCain, meanwhile, continues to slip under the radar screen. Everyone (54%) thinks he’s a fine old fellow.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows John McCain leading Barack Obama, 49% to 42%. The presumptive Republican nominee also leads Hillary Clinton 47% to 43%.

It’s Official: Media Are Ignoring Cheney’s Unconstitutional Drafting of Torture Guidelines

Jon Ponder

The corporate news media are ignoring the revelation by ABC News last week that top administration officials, including Dick Cheney and then Sec. of State Colin Powell, drafted guidelines for torture techniques to be used by CIA interrogators.
Five years from now, reporters will write books on why they chose to ignore the story of Cheney’s drafting of these immoral, unethical and un-Constitutional torture guidelines. Let’s all vow not to buy those books.

On Thursday, Jonathan Turley, a constitutional expert who was a strong advocate for impeaching Pres. Clinton, said the vice president and the other officials also appear to have committed war crimes.

This news, including Bush’s confirmation late on Friday that he approved the crafting of torture guidelines, was not mentioned on NBC’s “Meet the Press” yesterday nor was it discussed on ABC News’ own political chat show, “This Week with George Stephanopoulos.”

On Saturday, the Washington Post published a story on page A03 about Bush’s confirmation that he authorized torture, but it has not been covered in the Los Angeles Times or the New York Times. The drafting of the torture guidelines by senior Bush officials was not mentioned during random samplings of cable news broadcasts over the weekend — not even in the headline crawl at the bottom of the screen.

This should be a big story. Leaving aside the fact that torture is immoral, unethical and counter-productive, the drafting of guidelines for torture techniques was simply illegal — or, more to the point, unconstitutional:

[…]

Bookmakers Cut Obama’s Odds in Pennsylvania Because of ‘Bitter’ Remark

Jon Ponder

In case you’re just tuning in to the controversy over Barack Obama’s “bitter” remark, here is what he said last Sunday in San Francisco:
It will be harder for Republicans to pin the elitist label on Obama, who is a Harvard grad who chose to be a community organizer rather than taking a cushy corporate job, than it was on John Kerry or Michael Dukakis.

“You go into some of these small towns in Pennsylvania and, like a lot of small towns in the Midwest, the jobs have been gone now for 25 years and nothing’s replaced them… It’s not surprising, then, they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren’t like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations.”

Obama’s critics have interpreted his comment as saying yahoos “cling” to God and guns because they’re desperate and can’t think for themselves — that conservative values are delusions that are by-products of stress.

On Saturday, Obama made a clarification:

“Obviously, if I worded things in a way that made people offended, I deeply regret that,” Obama said in a phone interview with the Winston-Salem Journal. “But the underlying truth of what I said remains, which is simply that people who have seen their way of life upended because of economic distress are frustrated and rightfully so.”

Judging by the way Hillary Clinton came out swinging yesterday, exhaustive focus-grouping revealed that the “yahoo” interpretation of Obama’s statement is resonating.

The fact that odds makers have taken note provides more evidence that the controversy has legs:

The infamous “bitter” comments made by the Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama will likely cost him the primary in Pennsylvania on April 22nd… According to the odds makers, Hillary Clinton is now -270 favorite to win the upcoming Democratic primary, while the odds on Barack Obama to recover and come out victorious are slim +180…

Still, in a long run, the odds makers continue to put their money on Barack Obama to win the Democratic nomination, listed with odds 2/11 at BodogSports, compared to the long odds on Hillary Clinton at 23/4.

The charge of liberal out-of-touch elitism helped sink the Michael Dukakis campaign in 1988 and John Kerry’s 2004 bid. It will be harder to pin the elitist label on Obama, who is a Harvard grad who chose to be a community organizer rather than taking a cushy corporate job — unless Obama were to allow himself to be filmed riding in a tank or windsurfing.

Torie Clarke: ‘Hillary Clinton Can Overplay Her Hand’

Trish

No less than Republican operative Torie Clarke seems to be right on the money about Hillary Clinton. Here’s what the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Public Affairs under Donald Rumsfeld said on ABC’s This Week concerning the “people are bitter” comment by Barack Obama.

I think he can recover from this and I think he will, pretty easily. I think Hillary Clinton can overplay her hand. To prove that she’s a real person of the people, she’s out there drinking fake boiler makers, and this, and that. It’s just laughable.

[Time Magazine’s] Mark Halperin: They were real boiler makers.

Clarke: Crown Royal? Sorry, in Western Pennsylvania you don’t drink your boiler makers with Crown Royal. It’s a little bit tougher than that. But I think they may not play this that well. They may overplay this hand.

Clarke was born in Pittsburgh, so we’ll take her word on the cocktails. She’s also correct so far on Hillary’s shameless exploitation of Obama’s quite astute observation. Here’s what Obama actually said:

The true “dream ticket” in 2008 is McCain/Clinton. They agree on just about everything. Deciding which of the two of them is the bigger ambition whore is the hard part.

“You go into these small towns in Pennsylvania and, like a lot of small towns in the Midwest, the jobs have been gone now for 25 years and nothing’s replaced them. And they fell through the Clinton Administration, and the Bush Administration, and each successive administration has said that somehow these communities are gonna regenerate and they have not.”

“And it’s not surprising then they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren’t like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations.”

The Clinton team wasted no time in whipping up the voters, handing out, “I’m not bitter” stickers in North Carolina. She has also taken to defending hunting, to make it seem to the bitter, ignorant masses she is pandering to that Obama was attacking it.

But the woman’s complete lack of self-awareness is so far even more evident than Clarke’s predicted miscalculation.

After a weekend spent making direct appeals to gun owners and church goers, Hillary Clinton said Sunday a query about the last time she fired a gun or attended church services “is not a relevant question in this debate” over Barack Obama’s recent comments on small town Americans.

“We can answer that some other time,” Clinton said at a press conference held in a working class neighborhood [in Scranton]…

“We have been working very hard to make it clear that we have millions of Democrats who are church going and gun-owning,” [Clinton] said. “And we are tired of having Republicans, or frankly our own Democrats, give any ammunition to Republicans because what happens then is Republicans take advantage of the situation.”

REPUBLICANS TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE SITUATION?

Somebody get me a glass of water.

But speaking of predictions, I’d like to go on record now as forecasting the true “dream ticket” in 2008. If McCain wants someone as willing to do whatever it takes to fulfill the dream of the White House as he is, he should pick Hillary Clinton as his running mate. They seem to agree on just about everything. Deciding which of the two of them is the bigger ambition whore is the hard part.

Bush Family is Fund Raising. Let’s Hope It’s For the Legal Defense Fund

Trish

Gag me.

The society page of the Dallas Morning News reports the Bushes are raising big bucks. The question is, why? Political campaigns or lawyering up?

Bush Family Barbecue Attracts GOP Heavyweights

By SANDRA FAY / Special Contributor to The Dallas Morning News

Barely back from the Final Four in San Antonio, Phyllis and Bobby Ray were among 200 guests at the presidential ranch in Crawford for Friday’s Bush Family Barbecue, with President George W. Bush and first lady Laura, former first couple George and Barbara Bush, and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush.

Karl Rove was in attendance and was said to be ebullient about the current presidential campaign. Presumptive Republican nominee Sen. John McCain was in Texas on Friday and it was thought he might pop in before the evening ended.

Bobby tried to convince Phyllis the event was in honor of her birthday Thursday, but she wasn’t buying it and he’ll have to come through with something else. It’s been suggested an amount commensurate with his political gifts would be a nice gesture, but it isn’t known if that will happen.

Group president of K. Hovnanian Homes, Bobby is a member of an elite group of major donors to the Republican National Committee.

Hmmm. No mention of Jeb’s wife, Columba, attending. Maybe she doesn’t get along that well with her in-laws. I can’t imagine why. After all, Poppy Bush made it clear he loved his grandchildren despite the fact that their mother was Mexican (yes, I’m being ironic) when he introduced them to Pres. Reagan in 1988 as, “the little brown ones.”

Alberto Gonzales Can’t Find a Job

Jon Ponder

In a world of justice, none of the loyal Bushies would find employment after they leave office:

Alberto R. Gonzales, like many others recently unemployed, has discovered how difficult it can be to find a new job. Mr. Gonzales, the former attorney general, who was forced to resign last year, has been unable to interest law firms in adding his name to their roster, Washington lawyers and his associates said in recent interviews.

He has, through friends, put out inquiries, they said, and has not found any takers. What makes Mr. Gonzales’s case extraordinary is that former attorneys general, the government’s chief lawyer, are typically highly sought…

The greatest impediment to Mr. Gonzales’s being offered the kind of high-salary job being snagged these days by lesser Justice Department officials, many lawyers agree, is his performance during his last few months in office. In that period, he was openly criticized by lawmakers for being untruthful in his sworn testimony. His conduct is being investigated by the Office of the Inspector General of the Justice Department, which could recommend actions from exonerating him to recommending criminal charges. Friends set up a fund to help pay his legal bills.