Month: March 2008
Prediction: Florida Re-Vote Would Mirror Iowa Primary
I think the same thing that happened in Iowa on Saturday — Obama taking the delegates originally won by John Edwards, plus a few more that have grown disenchanted with Clinton — would happen if Florida Democrats were to mail it in.
The Iowa primary (as distinguished from the caucuses held first) showed how things have changed since January.
Obama’s gains at Saturday’s county conventions came from successfully wooing Iowa Democratic Party activists who had previously backed former Sen. John Edwards, D-N.C., as well as picking up the support of some Iowans who had backed Clinton during the Jan. 3rd precinct caucuses.
As a result of Saturday’s county conventions, Obama gained nine delegates, Clinton lost one, and Edwards lost eight delegates. Moving up by nine while Clinton moved down by one gave Obama a net gain of 10 over his rival for the Democratic presidential nomination.
Florida Democrats, if anyone still remembers, went for Clinton at 50 percent, Obama, 33 percent, Edwards, 14 percent, and everybody else, 1 percent. I can’t see Edwards voters (like me) going over to Clinton in any great number but I can see former Clinton-neutrals falling into the Clinton-ick category. I can also see some Clinton supportors becoming Clinton never-minders. Hillary is trying so hard to preserve the January Florida vote because she thinks the same thing.
And Iowa’s primary results don’t help her.
To highlight the significance of Obama netting 10 delegates at Saturday’s low-profile Iowa county conventions, Obama campaign manager David Plouffe issued a statement juxtaposing it with Clinton’s high-profile win earlier this month in Ohio’s primary.
“With all of the results in,” said Plouffe in a statement whose accuracy was confirmed by the Iowa Democratic Party, “Sen. Obama earned 25 delegates, while Sen. Clinton earned 14. Sen. Obama netted 10 delegates tonight.”
“For comparison purposes,” he added, “Sen. Clinton netted nine delegates in Ohio†by winning that state’s primary on March 4.
So, with Iowa, the latest delegate count is:
| Clinton | Obama | |
| Delegates | 1,240 | 1,407 |
| Superdelegates | 245 | 207 |
| TOTAL | 1,485 | 1,614 |
A total of 2,025 delegates is needed for the nomination to avoid a brokered convention (one where superdelegates would have to step in).
Cheney Flies to Middle East to Push Allies on Peace Process
Oh yeah, this will work:
US Vice President Dick Cheney leaves for the Middle East Sunday, hoping to help revive the battered peace process and get Arab allies like Saudi Arabia to do more to curb Iran’s influence in Iraq. With just ten months left in US President George W Bush’s term, Cheney is expected to seek support for confronting Tehran over its nuclear program and push Israel and the Palestinians to fulfill past promises for peace.
His 10-day trip comes as the US presidential race is heating up and the world prepares to mark the fifth anniversary of the US-led invasion of Iraq, which falls March 19 in Washington and March 20 in Baghdad.
The political unrest in Lebanon, the situation in Syria, the violence in Gaza, and sky-high oil prices will all come up as Cheney visits Oman, Saudi Arabia, Israel, the West Bank, and Turkey, top aide John Hannah said Friday.
“It’s a very long list and rich agenda,†said Hannah, the vice president’s national security adviser. “He has quite deep relationships, and personal relationships, with a number of leaders in those countries.â€
Cheney was not expected to press Saudi King Abdullah too much to boost oil output, or push OPEC to do so, in the face of sky-high oil prices that have fueled a bitter debate ahead of the November 4 US elections.
Quote du Jour
Nothing in the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity.
— Martin Luther King Jr. (1929-1968), American civil rights activist
Spitzers Too Rich to Miss $80,000
If, like me, you wondered how someone could spend $80,000 on anything and not miss it, let alone have their partner notice, we have an answer.
Hillary Clinton just lost a superdelegate
The scion of a wealthy Manhattan real estate developer, Spitzer is a millionaire who could easily live off his share of his father’s real estate business.
He reported $1.9 million in income to the IRS in 2006.
Not including last year, his earnings have been $14.9 million since 1998, and that total only hints at his family’s wealth. His father, Bernard Spitzer, is said to be worth at least $500 million.
Spitzer’s tax returns show that a majority of his income comes from rents collected on apartments and shops owned by the family. As governor, he earned $179,000 a year.
His wife, Silda Wall Spitzer, gave up a lucrative career in corporate law in 1994.
One person might miss Spitzer’s various assets. Hillary Clinton just lost a superdelegate.
New York Gov. Eliot Spitzer and Lt. Gov. David Paterson are both in the Hillary Rodham Clinton camp. Spitzer was a superdelegate because he was governor, Paterson because he’s an at-large member of the Democratic National Committee. Now, Spitzer is out, so Clinton will lose a vote. Paterson occupies two “slots.” He could resign as a DNC member. But since it’s an at-large slot, his replacement could come from any state, and for either candidate. There are already two vacancies in at-large seats. There is no indication that Howard Dean plans to fill them.
But then, there is also no indication Howard Dean plans to do anything about anything.
Poll: Success for Bush – Iraq Is Out of Sight, Out of Mind
The stated objective of the Bush administration’s “surge” of troops into Iraq was to suppress the violence. Its unstated purpose was to get the occupation off the radar of the news networks in order to tamp down the war as a campaign issue against Republicans in this cycle. If it bleeds, it leads. Conversely, no blood, no coverage.
The Iraq occupation received just 1% of news coverage in the third week of February
In that sense, the surge can be counted as one of Bush’s rare successes. According to a new poll from Pew Research Center for the People and the Press, coverage of the Iraq occupation by television news was reduced to barely a blip last month:
[ Pew] found that the number of news stories devoted to the war has sharply declined this year, along with professed public interest. “Coverage of the war has been virtually absent,” said Pew survey research director Scott Keeter, totaling about 1 percent of the news hole between Feb. 17 and 23.
With no coverage, the public perception of the situation in Iraq has improved:
Twenty-eight percent of the public is aware that nearly 4,000 U.S. personnel have died in Iraq over the past five years, while nearly half thinks the death tally is 3,000 or fewer and 23 percent think it is higher, according to an opinion survey released yesterday.
The survey … found that public awareness of developments in the Iraq war has dropped precipitously since last summer, as the news media have paid less attention to the conflict. In earlier surveys, about half of those asked about the death tally responded correctly.
What was the news people cared about? Figures from Pew are hardly surprising: “During the last week in January, 36 percent of those surveyed said they were most closely following campaign news, while 14 percent expressed the most interest in the stock market and 12 percent in the death of actor Heath Ledger. In contrast, 6 percent said they were most closely following coverage of Iraq.”
MSNBC Cancels ‘Tucker’ – Finally!
Among the most annoying affectations of Tucker Carlson, the conservative host of MSNBC’s afternoon gabfest, “Tucker,” is his habit of feigning confusion by crinkling his nose, scrunching his brow and saying “I’m confused,” before launching into a discourse about something a Democrat has done — about which he is not really the least bit confused.
I wonder if he crinkled his nose like that and said, “I’m confused,” when MNBC told him his show was canceled:
“It was a good show. I’m proud of it,” Tucker Carlson tells TVNewser about his now-canceled MSNBC daily program, which began in 2005.
Carlson says the show — with his conservative perspective — is not a fit for the MSNBC prime time ‘brand’. “Which of (the programs) is not like the other? That was always the feeling I got, watching the lineup…
“You can only really be who you are. I couldn’t pretend to be something else, not that anyone asked me to be somebody else. I was kind of out there, by myself.”
Since word of the cancellation, he says, “They’ve been really nice to me…I like working for NBC. They want me to stay, and I’m going to stay, so I can’t complain.”
And:
“Sometimes when you fail,” he adds, “you feel embarrassed. I really don’t feel like we failed.”
Carlson, who is a descendant of the founder of the Swansons frozen food empire, will remain with MSNBC as senior campaign correspondent.
Client 9 T-Shirts Now Available
It had to happen, I suppose. A dizzying array of “Client 9” themed t-shirts are already available online. Man, that was fast! Here’s a very rude sample.
- “I’m not only the Governor, I’m also a client.”
- Spitzer? I don’t even know her!
- Eliot Mess
- I’d swallow for Spitzer
- Spitzer: Done in a New York minute.
- Now serving Client #10
- Ditch Client 9’s cheating ass, Silda!
- Client #1. I had her first.
- Spitzer spend $80,000 on hookers and all I got was this lousy t-shirt
Get yours now. Or just wait until next week when they’re on the clearance rack.
Second Muslim Elected to Congress
And no, the first Muslim was not Sen. Barack Obama. It was Rep. Keith Ellison (D-Minn.). From Reuters:
Indiana voters on Tuesday elected a Muslim to Congress, only the second of that faith chosen in U.S. history.
Andre Carson, grandson of the late Democrat Rep. Julia Carson, was elected to serve the balance of her term in the U.S. House of Representatives in a special election.
She died in December 2007, after serving 11 years in the heavily Democratic district.
The younger Carson, 33, a member of the Indianapolis City Council who converted to Islam about a decade ago, will serve out the remainder of his grandmother’s term through calendar 2008. He beat Republican Jon Elrod and a third party candidate with 52 percent of the vote to 44 percent for Elrod.
Ellison was sworn in on a copy of the Koran owned by Thomas Jefferson. No word yet if it will be used by Rep. Carson.
