Month: February 2008

Poll: McCain Has Lead Over Dems in November

Jon Ponder

Reality is starting set in the presidential race. Fear, the predominant force of the Bush era is still the leading factor in who Americans will vote for in November, according to the new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll:

In head-to-head contests, the poll found, McCain leads Clinton by 6 percentage points (46 percent to 40 percent) and Obama by 2 points (44 percent to 42 percent). Neither lead is commanding given that the survey, conducted Feb. 21-25, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Even though most Americans want the Iraq occupation to end, they still don’t trust the party of FDR to run the military:

Both Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton have made ending America’s involvement in the war a centerpiece of their campaigns. And even though a clear majority of those polled said the war was not worth waging, about half of registered voters said McCain — a Vietnam vet who has supported the Bush administration’s military strategy — was better able to deal with Iraq.

Here’s one positive number for McCain that could be changed, if the Democrat nominee is aggressive:

The Arizona senator is viewed favorably by 61 percent of all registered voters, including a plurality of Democrats.

Driving up their opponents “unfavorables” is fundamental to the way in which the Bush campaigns of 2000 and 2004 bested Al Gore and John Kerry, respectively. But both these candidates were either reluctant to, or inept at, driving up Bush’s negatives, plentiful though they were.

Sen. Larry Craig (R-Mens Room) Seeking Summer Interns

Jon Ponder

This is not a joke:

Idaho Senator Larry Craig is currently seeking intern applications for the summer term, which runs from May to August. The application deadline is March 15, however if more time is needed for the application process, please contact Senator Craig’s office for an extension. Craig offers paid internships within the Washington, D.C., office. Preference is given to Idaho applicants attending Idaho schools who are in their junior or senior years of college (including graduating seniors).

‘”Interns have the chance to be an essential part of a working congressional office,” said Craig. “They participate in the legislative process as well as ensure that constituent services run smoothly. For those interested in politics, it is an incredible opportunity to get a behind-the-scenes look at how our government functions while serving the people of Idaho.”

As noted, this is not a joke but it certainly could be — please give it your best shot in the comments.

H/t: JR

Kitchen Debate Between Obama and Clinton Supporters Ends in Violence

Jon Ponder

If the victim had been a Bush supporter, this would be understandable on some level at least. But come on, guys, the policy differences between Clinton and Obama boil down to nuance. All we’re fighting about is which one will be easier for the Republicans to beat. There’s absolutely no need to come to blows:

Meet Jose Antonio Ortiz. The Pennsylvania man allegedly stabbed his brother-in-law in the stomach after the pair quarreled about their respective support of Democratic presidential candidates Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. According to cops, Ortiz, 28, stabbed Sean Shurelds last Thursday night in the kitchen of an Upper Providence Township home. According to a criminal complaint, a copy of which you’ll find here, the 41-year-old Shurelds, an Obama supporter, told Ortiz that the Illinois senator was “trashing” Clinton (apparently in regard to recent primary and caucus results). Ortiz, a Clinton supporter, replied that “Obama was not a realist.” While not exactly fighting words, the verbal political tiff led to some mutual choking and punching. And, allegedly, a stabbing in the abdomen

H/t: KBMc

VoteVets.org Ad Opposes McCain’s Thousand Years of War in Iraq

Jon Ponder

About the ad:

Today anti Iraq war leaders, joined by former Senator John Edwards and his wife Elizabeth, announced the launch of a new nationwide, multimillion dollar campaign aimed at shining a light on the cost of war in Iraq. The $20 million campaign will include paid advertisements, lobbying Congress not to pass blank check funding bills, urging Congressional action to bar President Bush from making a long term commitment to Iraq that could tie the hands of the next president, and campaigning in key Senate states and House districts.

The Iraq/Recession campaign is a joint venture of MoveOn.org, the Service Employees International Union, VoteVets.org, USAction, the Center for American Progress and Americans United For Change.

GOP Trying to See How Far It Can Go In General Election Without Being Called Racist or Sexist

Trish

It’s easy to see why the GOP wants to avoid one thing more than any other in the general election campaign: “undisciplined messaging.” You say you don’t know what that is? Neither did I until Politico explained it.

Republicans know more than one election is at stake if they appear racist or sexist toward the eventual Democratic nominee. But since they really want to attack Obama for being black and/or Clinton for being female, it’s important to know where the line is and to stay just a hair this side of it.

The Republican National Committee has commissioned polling and focus groups to determine the boundaries of attacking a minority or female candidate

The Republican National Committee has commissioned polling and focus groups to determine the boundaries of attacking a minority or female candidate, according to people involved. The secretive effort underscores the enormous risk senior GOP operatives see…

…Republicans should expect a severe backlash if they say or do anything that smacks of politicizing race or gender. They didn’t need an expensive poll to learn that lesson, however.

Or maybe they did. Whereas you or I could just tap a coworker, neighbor, or — dare I say it — friend for some input, evidently your average Republican is just a bit more, shall we say, insulated.

“You can’t run against Barack Obama the way you could run against Bill Clinton, Al Gore or John Kerry,” said Jack Kemp, the 1996 GOP vice presidential nominee, who expressed concern that the party could be reduced to an “all white country club party” if it does not tread cautiously.

Reduced to an all white country club party? I thought they cultivated that image and wore it like a big, shiny Girl Scout badge on a sash slung over their jackets. And I’m not the only one who thought so.

Republicans interviewed for this story uniformly believe they will have to be especially careful. Many expect to be held to a higher rhetorical standard than is customary in campaigns, in part because of perceptions of intolerance that still dog the party.

“Fair or unfair, but that’s going to be a reality,” said GOP strategist John Weaver, a longtime confidant of John McCain. “The P.C. [politically correct] police will be out and the standards will be very narrow.”

Don’t you just love it when the people who gave us such terms as “faith-based initiatives” instead of “state-funded religion” and “low food security” instead of “hunger” and now, “undisciplined messaging” instead of “racism and sexism,” complain about the “P.C. police” (instead of “people offended by insults”)?

The real problem for Republicans is that they’re going to have to come out from the shadows this time and they don’t know how to make a case without insinuation meant to push fear buttons. Pointing out Clinton is a woman or that Obama fathered a black child is anticlimactic. What else you got, GOP?

GOP’s Roger Stone Launches Anti-Clinton Group, Citizens United Not Timid – C.U.N.T.’

Jon Ponder

Earlier this year, an infamous, though quite mainstream, Republican Party operative quietly launched a new anti-Hillary Clinton 527 group called Citizens United Not Timid — yes, it really is C.U.N.T. The notorious operative behind it is Roger Stone, a protege of Richard Nixon who is known for his trademark impeccable grooming, a facade that masks as thoroughly sleazy a character as any operating in modern politics.

In case you’re unfamiliar with Stone’s exploits, here’s a brief overview:

In 1996, he was forced to resign from his volunteer role on Bob Dole’s presidential campaign after tabloids tracked down sexy ads he and his wife, Nydia, allegedly placed on a swingers’ website. In 2000, during the Bush v. Gore recount, Stone was chosen by Bush family consigliere, former Sec. of State James Baker, to lead the fake “Brooks Brothers mob” riots in Miami. In 2004, Stone secretly helped Democrat Al Sharpton launch his insurgent presidential bid.

Last summer, Stone was accused of making anonymous threatening phone calls to the 83-year-old father of New York’s Democratic governor, Eliot Spitzer. Listen to the message here, and here’s the transcript:

This is a message for Bernard Spitzer. You will be subpoenaed to testify before the [New York State] Senate Committee on Investigations on your shady campaign loans. You will be complelled by the Senate Sergeant at Arms. If you resist this subpoena, you will be arrested and brought to Albany. And there’s not a God damn thing your phony, psycho piece of shit son can do about it. Bernie, your phony loans are about to catch up with you. You will be forced to tell the truth. And the fact that your son’s a pathological liar will be known to all.

(Emphasis not added.)

In December, Stone, who lives in Miami, made news by warning Florida’s popular bachelor (and preternaturally tanned) governor, Charlie Crist, that if he wanted to be vice president, Crist had better get married because, Stone said, “Bachelors don’t get selected for vice president.” Maybe these days they don’t but in fact, William Rufus de Vane King, the 13th vice president and longtime senator from Alabama, was a confirmed bachelor, nicknamed “Miss Nancy” and “Aunt Fancy,” who shared digs in Washington for a quarter century with James Buchanan, who later became the only bachelor to serve as U.S. president.

So that’s Roger Stone. Here’s Paul Kiel at TPMuckraker on Stone’s latest venture:

[…]

Factcheck.org: Clinton Is Right, Obama Mailers Are Misleading

Jon Ponder

Hillary Clinton is doing what second-place candidates in two-person races must do: swing hard. On Friday, she challenged Barack Obama on the truthfulness of a pair of campaign mailers that she says misstate her positions:

Clinton said Obama’s mailers, which have been circulating in some states since Super Tuesday, were “tactics that are right out of Karl Rove’s playbook…”

“Shame on you, Barack Obama,” Clinton said. “Meet me in Ohio. Let’s have a debate about your tactics.” The senators have been scheduled for a debate Tuesday in Cleveland.

She may be swinging hard on this issue because she is right. Nonpartisan Factcheck.org checked out the mailers and generally agrees with Clinton’s assessment:

  • Trade: A mailer showing a locked plant gate quotes Clinton as saying she believed NAFTA was “a boon” to the economy. Those are not her words and Obama was wrong to put quote marks around them. In fact, she’s been described by a biographer as privately opposing NAFTA in the White House.
  • Health Care: A second mailer said Clinton’s health care plan “forces everyone to buy insurance, even if you can’t afford it.” We have previously said that mailer “lacks context” and strains the facts. But both Obama and Clinton have been exaggerating their differences on this issue.

This raises the possibility that the Obama campaign is doing what frontrunners should never do: becoming over-confident and sloppy.

Florida Governor Gets Closer to Being McCain’s No. 2

Trish

The St. Petersburg Times’ political writer, Adam Smith, launched the Charile Crist Veep-O-Meter and it’s leaning toward the tanned one. Smith gives a bunch of reasons why John McCain might choose the Florida governor as his running mate, but the most compelling one is money.

McCain’s Florida momentum in January paid off – literally. Not only did the Sunshine State and its governor help deliver him the nomination, but it pumped more than $1.28-million into his campaign, more than twice what McCain raised from Florida in the prior three months, and nearly a third of the $3.5-million he’s raised from Florida to date. The Center of Responsive Politics reports that Rudy Giuliani all told raised $5.4-million from Florida, and Mitt Romney $4.4-million.

Another factor in Charlie’s favor is that no one else seems to want the job. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchinson (R-Tex.) turned it down cold on ABC’s This Week, while Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R-Minn.) is unpopular in his home state. Gov. Mark Sanford (R-S.C.) still looks like a possibility.

Charlie is said to be able to deliver the Sunshine State to McCain, based on the governor’s own high approval ratings. Personally, I’m not feeling it. Crist is popular in Florida, yes, but in context. Democrats like me don’t see him doing anything terribly wrong, in stark contrast to his predecessor Jeb Bush, and we do see him falling on the right side of some battles, like trying to get insurance companies to act fairly and turning around untenable environmental policies.

But all that sure ain’t enough to make me vote Republican for president, and it way sure isn’t enough to make me vote for John McCain.

Nader Announces Run for President

Jon Ponder

On Meet the Press this morning, Ralph Nader announced he is entering the presidential race this year.

He says he is getting into the race because he (rightly) believes the machinery of our political system is broken. It is hard to see how putting more sand in the gears helps anything.

Nader rankles at the suggestion his candidacy in 2000 led to the election of George Bush, but if Al Gore lost Florida by 600 votes (as opposed to the more likely scenario in which thousands of Democratic votes were not counted), the facts are the facts. Most Nader voters in Florida said they would have voted for Gore if Nader had not been on the ticket.

Nader is an Arab-American and will be 74 years old on Wednesday, both of which might make him vulnerable to political attacks in this cycle, if his candidacy were to become a serious threat.