Day: August 8, 2006

It’s 8:12 Pacific, and Chris Bowers is calling the election for Lamont.

At 7:47 PDT:

80 percent reporting. Lamont 117K to 103K for Lieberman. That makes around a 6 percent spread. Getting even closer.

From earlier today, on Yahoo News:

But one thing is sure: the Fox News Channel is still campaigning for Lieberman. An Election Day report on the neoconservative cable channel featured an image of the neoconservative senator’s anti-war challenger in today’s contest for Connecticut’s Democratic Senate nomination, Ned Lamont, above the line: “HAVE THE DEMOCRATS FORGOTTEN THE LESSONS OF 9/11.”

The same report featured images of Lamont and Lieberman on a split screen with an image of an Israeli tank, all above the line: A LAMONT WIN, BAD NEWS FOR DEMOCRACY IN MIDEAST?”

Apparently, the network is delivering on Fox personality Sean Hannity’s pledge of support from earlier this year. “If you ever want me to do anything, for you and your re-election,” Hannity told the senator in February, adding that, “I think we ought to have Conservatives for Lieberman, a big fundraiser in Connecticut, and if I could ever do that, I’d make it the biggest blowout celebration ever.”

It’s 6:03 PDT and just saw that Lieberman apparently has lost in his home district:

# Direct word from the campaign: 6,500 vote margin for Lamont with 15% reporting. And Lieberman did lose his home precinct.
# Lamont 56%–Lieberman 44%. 7% reporting. The vote margin is around 2,700 votes. I just heard that Lieberman lost his own precinct. I can’t verify that.

First returns at 5:20 PDT are interesting but in no way indicative of how the evening will go:

Lamont 57 percent– Lieberman 43 percent. 1 percent reporting.

Winds of change: National Journal columnist Charlie Cook says a slew of recent polls all point to a Democratic takeover of the House of Representatives and a possible play for control of the Senate. His analysis leads him to predict that we could see another 1994, but in the Dems’ favor this time.

Time is running out for Republicans. Unless something dramatic happens before Election Day, Democrats will take control of the House. And the chances that they’ll seize the Senate are rising toward 50-50.

The electoral hurricane bearing down on the GOP looks likely to be a Category 4 or 5, strong enough to destroy at least one of the party’s majorities. The political climate feels much as it did before previous elections that produced sizable upheavals, such as in 1994, when Democrats lost 52 House seats, eight Senate seats, and control of both chambers.

In the past two weeks, polling by CBS News/New York Times, NBC News/Wall Street Journal, and The Cook Political Report/RT Strategies found that just 27 to 28 percent of voters think the country is headed in the right direction. Between 60 and 66 percent say we are “on the wrong track.” These are the kinds of “time for a change” numbers associated with tidal-wave elections.

In those same three polls, approval ratings for Congress ranged from 25 to 28 percent, with disapproval ratings of 57 to 60 percent. Keep in mind the Gallup Poll’s rule of thumb: When Congress’s job-approval rating is 40 percent or higher, the average midterm election net change in the House is just five seats; when its approval is below 40 percent, the average net change is 29 seats.
[…]

The situation around Tom DeLay’s House seat in Texas gets curiouser and curiouser. Yesterday, the Supreme Court shocked the world by refusing to hear an appeal about the case that seeks to remove DeLay’s name from the ballot and replace him with another Republican.

The denial of the appeal apparently left the Texas GOP with only two options: Keep DeLay’s name on the ballot or remove it entirely, meaning the Democrat, Nick Lampson, would run unopposed.

But DeLay is considering a third option:

[What] if DeLay steps aside and endorses a write-in candidate?

That’s a possibility, reports Time’s super-scooper Mike Allen.

A Republican official with first-hand knowledge of the deliberations by DeLay said he “more likely than not” will go that route, although he had not made a final decision. “With DeLay, you never know,” the official said.

Maybe — but:

It’s true that the TX GOP and DeLay agreed that a DeLay-less ballot would be less worrisome than a slate with the former congressman. But it’s not clear whether the party would be willing to fork over the money — or help raise the money — to mount a write-in bid.