Laying odds: Charlie Cook of the National Journal and a colleague developed a method of statistically evaluating election odds that provides insight into how the mid-terms might play out. Cook notes that a year ago, following Republican victories in the 2004 elections and with President Bush’s job-approval ratings still above 50 percent (remember the “mandate” and “political capital”), the Democrats’ chances of taking back the House looked slim to nil. But with Bush’s approval rating stagnating at 42 percent, Cook says the odds of a Democratic takeover, while less than 50-50, are real.
House Democrats need a net gain of 15 seats in November to have a majority. Cook notes that the battle will be tight because “few House Republicans are retiring, and few of the Republican incumbents who ought to be vulnerable are in districts that actually are competitive.” Nonetheless, his statistical model suggests the race will be close and could be impacted by a “wave” effect among the electorate.
Here’s how it works:
On an Excel spreadsheet, we gave each of the 435 House districts a numerical score based on our assessment of the chances of its going Republican this November. The score is computed by taking into account the historical voting patterns of that district, the caliber of this year’s candidates, the strength of the campaigns, and the political atmosphere in the district.
If a district looks solidly Republican, we give it a score of 1.0. If a district is rock-solid Democratic, we assign it a score of 0.0. If the parties have an equal chance of winning in a given district, we give the district a .5 score. Very few districts are in the toss-up territory; the vast majority fall close to the partisan extremes — 1.0 or 0.0.
The GOP’s resources might not be sufficient to douse all the anti-Republican fires that could erupt around the nation.
The current model predicts a net Democratic gain of 10 seats. When we factor in a four-seat margin of error, the model projects that as of today, under current conditions, and without speculating about what the national political environment may do between now and November, Democrats will make a net gain of six to 14 seats. With a bit of luck — or a wave of any size — Democrats might even grasp their gold ring: 15 seats.
Factors that could sway the Dems’ prospects include whether they can field strong candidates, whether there’s a groundswell of support for Democrats or a backlash agsinst Republicans, whether the Dems can raise enough money and how effective the Republicans’ nasty attacks are on Democratic challengers.
The not-so-secret weapon of the National Republican Congressional Committee in recent elections has been its use of money to rip into Democratic challengers and Democratic open-seat candidates early and often. Early attacks have thus enabled the NRCC to create negative impressions of those contenders before they could define themselves positively.
In the past few campaign cycles, the NRCC had enough money to go on the attack very early and very effectively. The danger for Republicans this time is that while the committee has much more money than the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee — $19 million at the end of 2005, compared with $15.7 million for the Democrats — the GOP’s resources might not be sufficient to douse all the anti-Republican fires that could erupt around the nation.
If it’s just a question of money, it’s likely that the Republicans will prevail, but if such issues as the warrantless surveillance of Americans, unchecked executive power and assault on civil liberties continue to dog the GOP, the people’s desire for change could win back the House.