From Rupert Murdoch’s GOP-Fox controlled Wall St. Journal:

The poll, for National Public Radio [PDF], found that in 58 Democratic-held battleground districts, 47 percent of likely voters preferred the Republican for Congress in their district, while 44 percent preferred the Democrat, a the percentage-point gap. The Republican lead was larger among voters with high levels of interest in the election. The GOP edge had been eight points in June.

New fund-raising numbers for the July-to-September period, due to federal officials at midnight Friday, could set the stage for the final dash to the Nov. 2 election.

The Democrats’ House committee on Friday reported $41.6 million in the bank, more than twice that of its GOP counterpart. Spending by non-party groups, such as labor unions and independent organizations, are backing up many candidates whose own bank accounts have run low.

Here’s analysis from Joe Conason at Salon:

[The] NPR polling team says that while the midterm is still “an ugly election” in the 86 Democratic-controlled districts that they surveyed, this election should no longer be considered a “death march” for Democrats. Their analysis highlights four important new developments:

First, in ten “battleground” House districts currently held by Republicans, the latest numbers suggest that the GOP will “lose a fair number” of those seats bedause their lead has been cut in half since June.

Second, in 58 House districts polled last June and this month, Democrats are gaining ground, with the Republican lead cut by more than half from eight points to three. Those advances are not enough to save the seats for the Democrats but suggest that the trend is now moving in their direction. If it keeps going that way, they may save some of those seats.

Third, independent voters have stopped moving toward the Republicans and reversed direction. Back in June, the Republicans held a 21-point lead among independents, which has shrunk since then to 13 points — still sizable but not insurmountable if the numbers keep moving.

Finally, the NPR survey shows the Democrats winning the “message debate” in recent weeks, a development that the pollsters call “amazing” … In the June poll, Democrats “lost every message contest” by 12 points; now, the Democratic message is prevailing. If this is a “wave election” that will produce a Republican tsumami, voters ought to have tuned out the losing party by now.

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