Tag: Elections

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Poll: Schwarzenegger Moves Ahead in Re-Election Bid; Bush Down to 30% in California

Jon Ponder
Arnold has changed his public persona from the Terminator to Kindergarten Cop.

In the first poll after the Democratic primary, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has moved ahead of his challenger, Phil Angelides. According to the nonpartisan Survey and Policy Research Institute poll, Schwarzenegger leads by seven percentage points, 44 percent to 37 percent.

In his analysis of the poll, George Skelton, who covers Sacramento for the Los Angeles Times, surmises that the governor has brought conservatives home and made inroads back into the good graces of independent voters. Consummate actor that he is, Schwarzenegger has done this by portraying a different character to the public. Last year, he was the hard-ass reformer ramming his agenda down the throats of Californians for their own good. But after his reform initiatives were voted down last November, he has transformed himself into a kinder, gentler Arnold. As Skelton put it, he has gone from the Terminator to Kindergarten Cop.

It looks like clear sailing to election for the governor — with the exception noted in the poll of Schwarzenegger’s association in the minds of voters with California’s top political pariah, George W. Bush.

Californians of all stripes and persuasions don’t care for the president, whose approval is at 30 percent. In the poll, 65 percent held an unfavorable view of the president’s handling of the economy, and according to the pollsters, almost 90 percent of those who disapprove of Bush’s handling of the economy plan to vote against Schwarzenegger.

Harris Tosses Out Nelson Slur; Press Skeptical

Trish

It doesn’t have to be true, it just has to make headlines: Katherine Harris is again making it up as she goes along. At a public forum given by a Republican women’s club in Florida, she pulled from her ass a reference to U.S. Senator Bill Nelson taking bribes.

No Katherine. That was you.

Republican Rep. Katherine Harris accused the man she is trying to unseat in her quest for the U.S. Senate of accepting illegal campaign contributions, as she did last year…

But after a question from a member of the audience about illegal contributions made to her campaign by a defense contractor in 2004, Harris said that she had not known the $32,000 donation was illegal and she has since donated the money to charity.

She then upped the political ante by suggesting Nelson had made a similar mistake.

“That actually happened in the past, and it happened to Bill Nelson,” Harris said. “The difference is that when I did find out, I donated that money to charity. . . He received some $80,000 the same way and he never did reimburse. So there is a little bit of difference, and I’m happy to draw attention to that.”

She never identified the money to which she was referring.

Harris gets more and more delusional with each passing day. I can see her shrieking maniacally as she paces in her hotel room before speeches, wringing her hands and wiping the odd fleck of foam from her lips.

It was only last week that she claimed Democrat fellow House members from Florida fervently wished she would beat Nelson. All seven denied it.

The Orlando Sentinel, which published the latest story, seemed equally unconvinced. The subhead for the article was: “In Kissimmee [Fla.], the U.S. Senate candidate says her chief opponent erred but offers no specifics.”

Poll: Sorry Muslims, Only Jews or Christians Need Apply for Prez

Buck Banks

God is my running mate: According to National Journal’s PollTrack, a new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll shows that both parties have work to do to secure the “religious vote,” whatever that is. Apparently a majority of Americans allow their superstitious reliance on an omnipotent imaginary friend to cloud their political affiliations.

And if your imaginary friend’s name is Allah, you can forget becoming the most powerful public servant on the planet.

Majorities of both Democratic (56 percent) and Republican (61 percent) respondents said they couldn’t vote for a Muslim for president, while a slight plurality (45 percent) of independents said they could.

Sixty-six percent of respondents indicated they’d have no problem voting for an evangelical Christian

The Mormon religion fared a bit better in the poll: A slim 51 percent majority said they could support a Mormon for president. That’s good news to Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R), who is considering a presidential run; 61 percent of Republicans said they could vote for a Mormon. Democrats were evenly split, with 43 percent saying they could and 42 percent saying they couldn’t.

Sixty-six percent of respondents indicated they’d have no problem voting for an evangelical Christian, including 53 percent of Democrats, 69 percent of independents and 81 percent of Republicans. Of course, we’ve already had an evangelical Christian president in Jimmy Carter.

However, respondents were most receptive to voting for Jewish or Catholic candidates for president. Overall, 76 percent said they could support a Jewish candidate, but along party lines support was strongest among GOP respondents at 83 percent compared with 72 percent of Democrats. (Good news for Joe Lieberman — a Jewish senator from Connecticut — but bad news for the Democratic Party, unless he runs as an independent, then it’s bad news for everybody.)

Eighty-three percent of respondents said they could vote for a Catholic candidate, the highest of the five religions tested in the poll. But Catholicism already passed the test when John F. Kennedy was elected in 1960. Another Catholic senator from Massachusetts — John Kerry (D) — failed most recently in his 2004 attempt, but we all know that wasn’t because of his religion. It was because of his wife. And his flip-flop on the Iraq War. And his inept campaigning. Etc.

Maybe Kerry should consider converting to Judaism ….

John and Jeb in 2008: Dismally Possible

Trish

Orlando Sentinel columnist Mike Thomas makes a depressing case for a McCain/Jeb ticket in 2008.

Given his brother’s lagging popularity, the name that got Jeb where he is could stop him from going any further. Diluting that name with McCain’s makes it more palatable…

If he had any other last name, [Jeb] Bush would be a front-runner for the 2008 Republican nomination. But given his brother’s lagging popularity, the name that got Jeb where he is could stop him from going any further.

Diluting that name with McCain’s makes it more palatable for a Bush-weary nation. It gives Jeb a chance to get people to look beyond the name.

If they lose, that sets him up for 2012. If they win, Jeb would fit the new VP mold of an Al Gore or Dick Cheney, an active participant in the White House…

Playing second fiddle allows Jeb to stay engaged while we recover from the George hangover…

As for McCain, his problem isn’t beating Hillary Clinton as much as it is getting to that point. Jeb gets him there. Jeb’s presence eliminates any serious opposition within the Republican Party.

For McCain, the only drawback from Jeb would be if the Bush name penalizes him in a general election.

But come on. Jeb’s dad won with Dan Quayle.

Norquist Vs. McCain May the Best Loser Win

Jon Ponder
Possible next move: If there is more about Norquist’s involvement in the money-laundering scheme that the committee could have “stuck” in the report, it would not be surprising to find that it is leaked to the media within a week or so.

Anti-government rightwing activist Grover Norquist saysallegations emanating from the Senate’s Indian Affairs committee, chaired by Sen. John McCain, that Norquist laundered tainted money from Indian tribes in the Abramoff scandals are just political payback for Norquist’s anti-McCain activities in the 2000 GOP primaries:

Norquist says a Senate Indian Affairs Committee report last month outlining his efforts to funnel money from Abramoff’s tribal clients to former Christian Coalition head Ralph Reed is riddled with half-truths and falsely implicates his nonprofit group, Americans for Tax Reform (ATR), in wrongdoing.

The activist says McCain, chairman of the committee, issued the report in retaliation for Norquist’s efforts to thwart McCain’s 2000 presidential bid.

“He has exhibited personal animus toward me,” Norquist said. “McCain, who’s running for president and is ostensibly the front-runner, takes time and effort to throw a punch at me and Ralph Reed. Why? He has told people we stopped him in the presidential election last time, and he thinks we might do it again. He is delusional. George W. Bush Beat [sic] him in South Carolina. But that’s high praise of the taxpayer movement that he has told so many people this.”

McCain staffers said the 373-page report, the culmination of a two-year investigation, is a neutral, factual account of Abramoff’s movements. E-mails from Abramoff cited in the report indicate that the disgraced lobbyist used ATR — for a fee — as a conduit for moving money from the Mississippi Choctaw American Indian tribe to anti-gambling grassroots activists who would have been uncomfortable receiving money from gambling profits…

“If that was a personal attack they would have stuck more in there,” one McCain adviser said. “Grover’s fingerprints where all over this stuff. You would have to work hard to keep him out of it …”

Norquist is notoriously obnoxious and McCain is notoriously bad-tempered. This dust-up could play out as a terrific grudge match of the circular firing squad variety.

Possible next move: If there is more about Norquist’s involvement in the money-laundering scheme that the committee could have “stuck” in the report, it would not be surprising to find that it is leaked to the media within a week or so.

Bush-Style Mexican Presidential Election: Millions of Uncounted Votes Turn up After Official Tally

Jon Ponder
The race is “officially” too close to call. But they will call it – after they steal it.

Paging Katherine Harris: On Monday, investigative reporter Greg Palast filed a story about the voting in the presidential election in Mexico this week:

As in Florida in 2000, and as in Ohio in 2004, the exit polls show the voters voted for the progressive candidate. The race is “officially” too close to call. But they will call it – after they steal it.

Reuters reports that, as of 8pm eastern time [on Monday, July 3, 2006], as voting concluded in Mexico, exit polls showed Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador of the “leftwing” party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) leading in exit polls over Felipe Calderon of the ruling conservative National Action party (PAN).

We’ve said again and again: exit polls tell us how voters say they voted, but the voters can’t tell pollsters whether their vote will be counted. In Mexico, counting the vote is an art, not a science – and Calderon’s ruling crew is very artful indeed. The PAN-controlled official electoral commission, not surprisingly, has announced that the presidential tally is too close to call.

Calderon’s election is openly supported by the Bush administration.

Today the Los Angeles Times is reporting that the vote count has gone from disarray into near chaos:

The margin between the two leading candidates for president narrowed suddenly Tuesday after election authorities revealed that about 2.5 million votes had been missing from earlier counts. The announcement meant the race between leftist Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador and conservative Felipe Calderon was still too close to call.

The news of uncounted votes heightened the sense of disarray since Mexico’s polls closed Sunday night.

An initial count of the ballots gave a slim but apparently insurmountable lead to Calderon. On Monday evening, Calderon was leading Lopez Obrador by 402,708 votes, with 98.45 percent of polling stations “processed,” according to official reports.

Dem Message Should Be ‘If You Think War Is Going Well, Vote GOP’

Jon Ponder

Jonathan Alter:

Unless things improve dramatically on the ground in Iraq, Democrats have a powerful argument: If you believe the Iraq war is a success, vote Republican. If you believe it is a failure, vote Democratic.

Isn’t that irresponsible? Not in the slightest. It’s only under Bush that criticizing the conduct of a war has been depicted as somehow unpatriotic. Lincoln was lambasted by opponents during the Civil War as was FDR during World War II. To take a lesser example, some of the same Sean Hannitys of the world who slam antiwar critics were blasting Bill Clinton’s Bosnia policy in 1999 when U.S. planes were in the air over Belgrade.

We’ll see this summer if Democrats begin to get up in the morning, look in the mirror and say, “This isn’t about us. It’s about them.” We’ll see if, when Karl Rove wants to talk about Iraq, the Democrats respond with three familiar words: “Bring it on.”

Bill Nelson: Victim of Not-Perfect-Enough Syndrome

Trish

Poor Bill Nelson. The Democratic U.S. Senator from Florida is either being damned with faint praise, or jinxed by favorable early polls.

Over and over, good Democrats lose because they are not perfect enough for other Democrats to support.

As PR Editor in Chief Jon noted recently, a new poll gives Nelson a 35 percent lead over U.S. Rep. Katherine Harris (R) in his race for re-election. In the post’s comments, PR Editor Buck agreed with the rosy assessment, predicting, “It basically does not matter who ends up with the Republican nomination, Nelson’s gonna win unless he sleeps with [fellow U.S. Senator] Mel Martinez.”

But other comments revealed a much larger problem for Nelson.

shellynm: “Who cares! Nelson votes with the Republicans a great deal of the time on VERY IMPORTANT ISSUES.”

spencer1: “shellynm is absolutely right! I can’t vote for Nelson, I guess I’ll write in, NONE OF THE ABOVE”

Stephen Kriz: “If Nelson is the best that the Dems can do, I’m goin’ Green!”

That’s what I’m talkin’ about.

Here’s what Democrats do: They look at all the candidates, assess their positions, and pick the one who most closely agrees with their most strongly held views. Factors like electability, party affiliation, and the big picture are tossed aside. They are perfectly willing to vote for Ralph Nader, Ross Perot, John McCain, or any other kook out there, particularly if they feel it will send a message to Democratic candidates that they should think more like them in the future if they want their vote.

Here’s what Republicans do: They look at all the candidates, locate the one with an “R” after his or her name, and send that person a check. When time comes to vote, that’s who they cast their ballot for. They are not distracted by third-party candidates like Libertarians who favor ending government (and especially taxation) as we know it — even if they agree with that idea — because they realize this will only split their voting power and a Democrat will end up with the office.

Over and over, good Democrats lose because they are not perfect enough for other Democrats to support.

The most significant part of the poll Jon cited was the answer to this question.

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Bill Nelson?
Favorable: 48 percent
Unfavorable: 14 percent
Undecided: 38 percent

That’s 38 percent who haven’t decided if Nelson is perfect enough, and 14 percent who say he’s not. On the other hand, Harris — or Orlando personal injury lawyer and Karl Rove special friend Will McBride — has what 100 percent of Republicans want, an “R” after the name.

Nelson is perfect enough for me. I hope my fellow Dems agree by election time.

FL Sen: Nelson Leads Harris by 35 Points

Jon Ponder

Stick a fork in her (please): According to a new Strategic Vision poll, Sen. Bill Nelson, D-Florida, leads Rep. Katherine Harris, R-Cuckooland, 61 percent to 26 percent, with 13 percent undecided.

Yesterday, we reported that Harris had announced that her colleagues in the House Democratic delegation from Florida had told her that they hoped she would beat Nelson in November.

Meanwhile, in reality:

[…]

Katherine Harris is Off Her Meds Again

Trish

Support for Katherine Harris is so universal — according to Katherine Harris — that even Democratic lawmakers from Florida have told her they hope she beats Democratic U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson.

…According to the Palatka Daily News, Harris said, “I’ve had Democrats in the House of Representatives come to me and say, ‘You know, we’d really like to take the majority in the U.S. Senate’ — these are Florida Democrats in the U.S. Congress — ‘but you’ll do so much more for us if you’re there.’ ”

Somebody call Rush Limbaugh and have him bring her over some of the good stuff

Harris said one Democrat — “one of the most liberal House members from Florida” — even offered her a slogan to use in her race against Nelson: “All about nothing for far too long.”

The problem is, none of the allegedly plural Democratic congresspeople in Washington are backing up Harris.

…all seven House Democrats from Florida told the Orlando Sentinel they never expressed any support for Harris. Responses from two — Debbie Wasserman Schultz and Alcee Hastings — were typical.

“That would be a big ‘No,’ ” Wasserman Schultz said.

“Under no circumstances, in any way, shape or form am I supporting Katherine Harris, nor do I know anybody in the delegation who is.”

“I can assure you, Congressman Hastings is 110 percent committed to the re-election of Bill Nelson,” Hastings’ spokesman said.

“He wishes Katherine Harris well in her life as a private citizen next year.”

Harris’ current beleaguered spokesperson (she goes through them like water) says his boss is too principled to expose her supporters.

Her former campaign manager says she’s just wacked.

[Spokesman Chris] Ingram said Harris was “taking the high road” by protecting their identity. He did not respond to an e-mail asking for the names of others who might corroborate Harris’ account.

The episode creates for voters a rare moment of political clarity: Either some Florida Democrats are hiding something and actually told Harris they want her to win, or Harris is making up the whole thing.

Former Harris campaign manager Jim Dornan is convinced Harris invented the story.

Dornan said she told her senior staff the same thing last year. But she would not name names.

“I just figured it had never happened,” said Dornan, who has become a critic of Harris since leaving the campaign late last year.

“It was all too weird.”

Katherine has obviously forgotten to refill her prescription. Somebody call Rush Limbaugh and have him bring her over some of the good stuff.