Tag: Elections

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What Angelides Must Do to Beat Schwarzenegger

Jon Ponder

Unfortunately, Phil Angelides, the Democratic candidate for governor, has proven he is no match for Gov. Schwarzenegger’s celebrity status. Still, here is advice for Angelides from Los Angeles Times political columnist Geroge Skelton:

As fall approaches, Treasurer Phil Angelides seems to have only two accessible paths to reach the governor’s office, both of them steep.

– He must wrap President Bush so tightly around Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger in voters’ minds that they “send a message” about the botched war and other Bush blunders by rejecting the governor’s reelection bid. Schwarzenegger, after all, did play a significant role in reelecting Bush.

– Angelides must remind voters of Schwarzenegger’s inconsistencies in rhetoric and behavior since being elected and get people seriously thinking about whether this governor should be trusted again.

Beyond that, Schwarzenegger could stumble badly, embarrassing and disgracing himself. But forget it. That’s every losing candidate’s fantasy and it almost never happens.

Schwarzenegger’s handlers seem to have him well under control. And aides likely won’t be providing any more links on the governor’s public website to his recorded private bull sessions.

‘Average Joe’ Scarborough Urges GOP Congress to Run against Bush

Jon Ponder
[It] must be tough explaining to voters at their local Baptist church’s Keep Congress Conservative Day that it was their party that took a $155 billion surplus and turned it into a record-setting $400 billion deficit.
— Rightwing pundit Joe Scarborough

It’s hard to believe that just a few years ago people who critized President Bush were accused of hating America. These days, however, when the criticism comes from Republicans like MSNBC’s Fox-wannabe Joe Scarborough, it’s considered a bold and brave move.

Whatever — but get a load of this:

I can’t help but feel sorry for my old Republican friends in Congress who are fighting for their political lives. After all, it must be tough explaining to voters at their local Baptist church’s Keep Congress Conservative Day that it was their party that took a $155 billion surplus and turned it into a record-setting $400 billion deficit.

How exactly does one convince the teeming masses that Republicans deserve to stay in power despite botching a war, doubling the national debt, keeping company with Jack Abramoff, fumbling the response to Hurricane Katrina, expanding the government at record rates, raising cronyism to an art form, playing poker with Duke Cunningham, isolating America and repeatedly electing Tom DeLay as their House majority leader?

And:

If I were a GOP candidate this year, I would not call the president an idiot (he isn’t). But I would spend the next 50 days of the campaign telling conservatives and liberals alike that even though I voted for this war once and this president twice, time has proved that Bush and Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld were wrong to think that the nation could win Iraq on the cheap. I would also look them in the eye and say that our president was wrong to believe that the United States could fight a war, cut taxes and increase federal spending, all at once. I would castigate my president for claiming to support homeland security while allowing our borders to remain wide open.

Hollywood Dems Support Angelies

Jon Ponder

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger’s bid for reelection has split the Hollywood community. Famous liberals supporting Democrat Phil Angelides in his bid outs Gov. Angelides include the coolest and the smartest:

Former President Bill Clinton, a longtime friend of Spielberg and Katzenberg, hosted a Beverly Hills fundraiser for Angelides recently, raising an estimated $4 million. (The campaign also cites backing from more than two dozen celebrities, such as Barbra Streisand, Larry David and Jeremy Piven.)

And:

Ed Begley Jr. and Dana Delany attended a get-out-the-vote rally for him. Other supporters include Diane Keaton, Will Ferrell, Matt Dillon, Laura Dern and Olympia Dukakis, according to the Angelides campaign.

Meanwhile, the list of Hollywood types supporting Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger is growing:

Some of Hollywood’s most influential Democrats are throwing their support behind Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger’s reelection bid, following the lead of Steven Spielberg, Jeffrey Katzenberg and media mogul Haim Saban.

Schwarzenegger’s campaign sent out hundreds of invitations this week to an event — hosted by Sherry Lansing, Casey Wasserman, Danny DeVito and wife Rhea Perlman, director James Cameron and more than two dozen others — asking the Hollywood glitterati to donate up to $22,300 each to attend a fundraiser for the Republican governor at Saban’s Beverly Hills estate on Sept. 30.

Republicans Set to Outspend Dems $60 Mil to $12 Mil in Six Weeks

Jon Ponder
It is an open question whether the deal between the DNC and DCCC will be enough to offset the financial advantage that the RNC cash will give Republican candidates this fall.

The Bush presidency is at stake. If the Republicans lose their majority in Congress, the new Democratic majority will actually investigate the president’s incompetence and malfeasance — and the White House political team simply cannot let that happen. The Republican National Committee will even risk bankrupting itself to keep the Congress under President Bush’s control:

The Republican National Committee (RNC) will spend its entire bank account, $60 million or more, helping Republicans try to retain control of Congress in the midterm elections.

The looming spending spree appears to have spurred Democratic House leaders to reach agreement over how much the Democratic National Committee (DNC) will help counter this onslaught.

The relationship between the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) and DNC has been rocky. There is dispute over whether it took House Democratic Caucus Chairman James Clyburn’s (S.C.) intervention to broker the deal announced yesterday under which part of the DNC’s $12 million will be funneled to 40 House races. Targeted House Democratic candidates will receive about $60,000 from the party committee.

One Democratic official said Clyburn had to bring the sides together, but another official denied it.

The DNC money will also be spent on Senate and gubernatorial races, and voter turnout activities in battleground states.

It is an open question whether the deal between the DNC and DCCC will be enough to offset the financial advantage that the RNC cash will give Republican candidates this fall.

Burns & Allen: Unfunny Comedy Duo Is Emblematic of GOP Senate in Disarray

Jon Ponder

Sen. Conrad Burns (l) and Sen. George Allen

Burns’ Nixonian protestation that he is not crook drew boos and cries of “psycho” from the audience.

Good night, Gracie: The national media is stuck on the meme of “Democrats in disarray” fed to them by the White House political office, even though any dispassionate observer would have to admit that the Democrats in Congress are keeping themselves remarkably gaffe-free and under control this year — especially for Democrats.

Meanwhile, GOP members in Congress, particularly in the Senate, have been acting like a bus load of rodeo clowns, starting with its top two buffoons, senators Burns and Allen.

At a debate last Sunday, Sept. 9, 2006, with his Democratic opponent, Jon Tester, Montana Sen. Conrad Burns told the audience:

“I believe in light bulbs and sunshine,” Burns said. “You know everything about me because it’s all out there on the Web site.”

What Burns meant by this bizarre formulation was that his record is an open book — that he is not a crook. Tester disagreed and “…chuckled, then defended himself by citing a lengthy, rapid-fire list of out-of-state and out-of-country trips taken by Burns, and the multinational corporations from which Burns has taken money.”

Burns’ Nixonian protestation that he is not crook drew boos and cries of “psycho” from the audience.

[…]

Don’t Trust Political Analysts Under 40

Buck Banks

Kids are all wrong: National Journal’s Charlie Cook thinks he’s on to something in the analysis of the upcoming midterm elections — younger political analysts take a much more conservative view of how many House and Senate seats the GOP stands to lose in November. He says it’s because the older guys have seen many more election cycles as well as more eeker and squeaker races. It’s an interesting notion:

One aspect of this election cycle that has fascinated me for months is the generation gap that has developed among experienced political operatives and professional election analysts.

Observers over age 40 think that the GOP could well lose more than 20 House seats and more than five Senate seats.

As a general rule, election-watchers under the age of 40, regardless of their party or ideology, see the contest for control of the House as fairly close. They foresee Republicans’ losing at least 10 seats, but certainly no more than 20, and they put the odds of a Democratic takeover at 50-50, give or take 10 percentage points.

As for the Senate, these observers tend to expect Republicans to lose three or four seats, but probably not five and certainly not the six required for Democrats to take charge.

Observers over age 40, meanwhile, tend to see a greater likelihood of sizable Republican losses. They think that the GOP could well lose more than 20 House seats and more than five Senate seats.

Most of the professionals toiling in the vineyards of the party campaign committees and watching individual races most closely are in the under-40 cohort. They tend to see control of the House as a close call and tend to be most conservative on their House seat counts. They’re also the least likely to think the Senate will change hands.
[…]

What We Really Lost After 9/11

Trish

Today’s New York Times marks the empty, token sacrifice we’ve made since 9/11, and names what we were really cheated of.

It was a time when the nation was waiting to find out what it was supposed to do, to be called to the task that would give special lasting meaning to the tragedy that it had endured. But the call never came.

The attacks themselves have begun to acquire the aura of inevitability that comes with being part of history. We can argue about what one president or another might have done to head them off, but we cannot really imagine a world in which they never happened, any more than we can imagine what we would be like today if the Japanese had never attacked Pearl Harbor.

What we do revisit, over and over again, is the period that followed, when sorrow was merged with a sense of community and purpose. How, having lost so much on the day itself, did we also manage to lose that as well?

The time when we felt drawn together, changed by the shock of what had occurred, lasted long beyond the funerals, ceremonies and promises never to forget. It was a time when the nation was waiting to find out what it was supposed to do, to be called to the task that would give special lasting meaning to the tragedy that it had endured.

But the call never came. Without ever having asked to be exempt from the demands of this new post-9/11 war, we were cut out. Everything would be paid for with the blood of other people’s children, and with money earned by the next generation. Our role appeared to be confined to waiting in longer lines at the airport. President Bush, searching the other day for an example of post-9/11 sacrifice, pointed out that everybody pays taxes.

That pinched view of our responsibility as citizens got us tax cuts we didn’t need and an invasion that never would have occurred if every voter’s sons and daughters were eligible for the draft. With no call to work together on some effort greater than ourselves, we were free to relapse into a self-centeredness that became a second national tragedy.

What the Times doesn’t say is that it could have been no other way with a leader as morally vacant as ours, a president whose first words of inspiration were to buy, buy, buy and show our patriotism and courage by indulging in mindless consumerism.

There was a time when America could do better than this, and I’m still not convinced we chose the alternative. It’s a plain fact that George Bush received less of the popular vote in 2000, and from everything I’ve read about Ohio in 2004, I think the chances are good he did that year also. Those of us who want something finer are still out here. We just have to get better at claiming it.

Election Surprise: Is Osama bin Laden in Custody?

Jon Ponder
Imagine how those numbers would change if Bush bagged bin Laden. The shift among conservative independents could flip the mid-terms.

He’s baaack: My tinfoil hat has been snap-crackle-and-popping all week over the sudden return of Osama bin Laden. Starting Tuesday, the day after Labor Day, the president launched his campaign of political terror with a series of speeches intended, apparently, to terrify swing voters and security moms into voting for the GOP in the fall elections. The speeches were unremarkable, except for a surprising number of references to the world’s most wanted terrorist. Coincidentally, a new video of bin Laden that was taped in September 2001 also appeared this week.

Where has Osama been? After the attacks in 2001, President Bush said he wanted the terrorist mastermind “dead or alive.” But as months passed and bin Laden eluded capture — and with the distraction of the president’s misadventure in Iraq — poor Osama became a non-person of interest to the White House political team. I think we can assume that bin Laden went from being wanted dead or alive to Osama been-forgotten because the CIA and the Pentagon simply could not find him.

Flash forward to this week: Conversely, they would only begin referring to Osama again if they’ve got him — he’s sitting in a cell in a secret prison in Uzbekistan. (I hope they’re torturing him by forcing him to watch Bush’s speeches end to end.)

Consider this:

[…]

Florida’s Dark Days Could Be Over: The Boring Guy and the Possibly Gay Guy are Ahead in the Governor’s Races

Trish

No matter what, if U.S. Rep. Jim Davis (the boring guy) and Florida Attorney General Charlie Crist (the possibly gay guy) continue to maintain the leads they have now in the governor’s primaries, Florida will be so much better off soon that we will all dance in the streets for the rest of the week!

Here’s some background on the race, but it appears there are blue skies ahead for the Sunshine State, because either of the two finalists are so much better than Jeb that I might wet my pants. Thanks, Florida voters, for helping get us out of this nightmare!

P.S. Yes, Katherine Harris is winning the Repiglican primary.

P.P.S. And pro-life extremist Randall Terry’s getting stomped!

Going to walk the dog. Will update in a little while…

Update: Tom Gallagher has conceded the Republican primary to Charlie Crist in the governor’s race. In what will hopefully represent a trend repeated nationwide this fall, the St. Petersburg Times described how the two candidates conducted their campaigns, and how Gallagher’s style is so two years ago.

Crist ran as someone who champions consumer causes and [Jeb] Bush’s policies – at least when it came to crime, taxes and education. But he wasn’t afraid to step out of line with the governor on some issues.

He questioned Bush’s decision to intervene in the Terri Schiavo right-to-die case and said that he won’t try to change the class size limits that the governor tried and failed to put back on the ballot.

“All I want to be is the people’s governor and they should rest assured that if they elect me in November, no one will fight harder for the people than Charlie Crist,” he said. “This is a time when we need all of Florida to come together – Republicans, Democrats and independents.”

Gallagher lost despite positioning himself to come across almost exactly the same as Bush all the way down the line, abandoning a more moderate stance on social issues he had the last time he ran for governor for far-right positions opposing all abortions, gay marriage and adoption and stem cell research. He also promised to outlaw billboards for adult businesses like strip clubs.

Update: Harris has 49% of the Republican vote, splitting the remaining votes with her three challengers. So she won the primary, and will go on to try to unseat U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson in November. Yeah, right.