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History Will Show that Republicans Played Race Card to Win the Senate in the 2006 Midterms

Jon Ponder


The Republican National Committee has released this ad against Rep. Harold Ford who is running for the U.S. Senate in Tennessee. The ad shows a young white woman who is depicting a party girl who says she met Ford at a party and closes her brief segment by asking the congresman to call her.

This all but ensures victory for the Republican, Bob Corker, who has a slight lead that is within the margin of error in the latest polling. The ad targets Southern swing voters who may be fiscally conservative but who are not comfortable with the idea of people dating outside their race. In a race as tight as this one, these squeamish voters can make a difference and, sadly, in this one they almost undoubtedly will.

It has happened before: Harvey Gantt was a successful architect, a civil rights pioneer who was the first African-American student at Clemson University and a former mayor of Charlotte, North Carolina’s largest city — and my former hometown. He ran against Sen. Jesse Helms, the uber-racist, uber-homophobe in 1990.

To outsiders, Helms was a powerful and nasty champion of the entrenched Southern subjugation of African-Americans. To almost exactly 50 percent of us Tarheel voters, he was an embarrassing anachronism. In his (too) long career, Helms never won by more than just a sliver over 50 percent of the vote.

Helms achieved his slim victories by waiting until the final days of the campaign to unleash ads that were designed either to “empty the trailer parks” by scaring his yahoo followers about civil rights for blacks, to “empty the pews” to scare them about gays.

In 1990, the ad he released at the end of the campaign was very simple. It showed a pair of white hands wadding up a rejection letter, while the voice over says, “You needed that job and you were the best qualified. But they had to give it to a minority because of a racial quota.”

This ad helped gain Helms his one of his largest margins of victory: 52.5 percent.

Update: Just heard on MSNBC that the RNC is replacing the ad. Sorry, Gops, that ship has sailed. If Ford loses by a slim margin, the responsibility lies with this racist ad.

Nelson v. Harris: Not-So-Great Debate

Buck Banks

Words without ideas: Watching the debate between Democrat Sen. Bill Nelson and Republican Rep. Katherine Harris last night was a frustrating experience. Not because the candidate I favor lost the debate, but because both candidates failed to articulate a coherent message that communicated either vision or capability.

Granted, Nelson came off a little better overall than Harris, but not much. It was clear that Harris had been prepped with some stock phrases and soundbites, which she strung together in a somewhat haphazard fashion, as if she were constructing a dadaist speech from random sound samples. I had expected Harris to come off as crazier than she did, but she managed to keep it together, although she did go after Nelson on his voting record in kind of a mean way. His weak-assed response to Harris’ quoting the St. Petersburg Times’ criticism of Nelson’s rather short list of accomplishments in the Senate was to hold up a paper and claim to have been endorsed by a dozen newspapers from across Florida. This was not even your high-school debate club level of discourse.

Harris had been prepped with some stock phrases and soundbites, which she strung together in a haphazard fashion, as if she were constructing a dadaist speech from random sound samples.

Harris’ most annoying habit in the debate was to walk out from behind the podium, I suppose to show off her cream-colored hose (which kind of made her legs look big), and to show off her bosom, which otherwise was hidden by the podium, and which seems to be a major part of her campaign platform. Unfortunately, standing out in the open like that meant that she had to use a range of about six stock hand motions to emphasize her points, whether they made sense in context or not. Nelson did not rise to the bait, however, and remained safely ensconced behind his podium.

But Harris’ most bizarre behavior of the night came immediately after the debate. As soon as it was over, she exited stage left, while Nelson bee-lined to the journalists who asked the questions and started glad-handing and chumming with them and the moderator. He also was joined by his wife, and the two of them stood chatting with the panelists and moderator as the credits rolled.

Meanwhile, Harris was visible in the darkness of the other end of the stage because of her cream-colored blouse. After watching Nelson for about 30-45 seconds, Harris marched across the stage and inserted herself in the scene, shaking hands with the panelists and moderator. But then, having shaken hands all around, she didn’t have anything else to do, as no one seemed interested in jaw-jacking with her. So she turned and walked back over to the darkness of the oppposite end of the stage and stood there, arms crossed, watching Nelson work the stage as more people came up from the audience.

She was still standing there, alone and in the dark, when the credits ended.

I suppose after all was said and done, I kind of wished I’d done what Brian Moore did. He’s the independent candidate running for Nelson’s seat who, along with a handful of other unknowns, was not invited to participate in the debate. So, figuring there are more ways than one to get media coverage, Moore went to Cuba to underscore his opposition to the U.S. embargo of that island nation.

Now that’s my kind of independent thinking — and, with coverage in the International Herald Tribune, an admirable PR ploy to boot.

Expect ‘October’ Surprise in November to Launch Pre-Election 72 Hour GOTV Campaign

Jon Ponder
Some commentators suggest that the insurgents in Iraq will ramp up the violence in advance of the election. This is hard to parse because they are thriving under the Bush/GOP regime here in the United States, and it is unclear why they would do anything to help loosen control of the Republican Party in Congress.

As we approach Election Day on Nov. 7, it seems that pollsters are moving additional once-safe GOP House seats into the toss-up category every day. This should be heartening news, except that the margins in these races are almost uniformly squishy and so could go either way when the votes are counted.

Take the case of Rep. Heather Wilson, the Republican incumbent from predominantly Democratic Albequerque, New Mexico. Her Dem opponent, Patricia Madrid, should be leading handily by now but a new poll showsthat the candidates are in a statistical tie, with Madrid at 45 percent and Wilson at 42 percent. Nine percent of voters at this late date remain undecided.

With exactly two weeks to go, there are a dozen or more races around the country in a similar position, with incumbent Republicans teetering on the edge and Democratic challengers not yet making the sale.

This positions the midterm elections perfectly for the Karl Rove “way of war.” Rove is famous for his “50-plus-1” strategy, which eschews building bipartisan consensus in order to achieve decisive victories but rather depends on terrorizing 51 percent of the electorate into voting Republican while bitterly alienating the other 49 percent of us. It is a strategy for winning, not governing — otherwise it would be too risky to squeak by with such razor thin majorities.

Now, with the status of the election at the tipping point, Rove is almost undoubtedly ready for the coup de grace — a two-prong attack that starts with an “October” surprise on or around Thursday, Nov. 2, that launches the GOP’s vaunted get-out-the-vote (GOTV) campaign 72 hours before voting begins on Tuesday, Nov. 7 .

Moving the surprise so close to the election ensures that the shock value of the story will dominate the news cycles through the start of voting and prevents Democrats from launching a counter-assault.

What the surprise will be has been widely debated. We have speculated that it might be an announcement that Osama bin Laden has been captured and killed, and we have noted that a Navy strike force spear-headed by the newly retooled U.S.S. Eisenhower arrived this weekend off the coast of Iran, where it is in position to start bombing the country’s nuclear facilities.

Events on the ground could countervail Rove’s efforts here and in Iraq, of course. In the Foley scandal, high-ranking Republicans including House Majority Leader John Boehner and aides to Speaker Dennis Hastert are scheduled to testify before the Ethics Committee this week — and Foley himself comes out of rehab on Oct. 27.

Some commentators suggest that the insurgents in Iraq will ramp up the violence in advance of the election. This is hard to parse because they are thriving under the Bush/GOP regime here in the United States, and it is unclear why they would do anything to help loosen control of the Republican Party in Congress.

Finally, here’s one way to guage what Republicans’ internal polling is showing as Nov. 7 approaches: If you start to hear comedian Rush Limbaugh and his cohorts begin to talk woefully bout huge numbers of seats changing hands to the Democrats — upwards of 80 or more — you can assume they are seeing a real surge and are trying to lower expectations so that if they lose just 20 or seats they can say, “See, it wasn’t as bad as we thought.”

Imagine — A Room Full of Katherine Harrises

Buck Banks

What the Kat dragged in: I just love this story, but don’t think my tender constitution could handle a room full of Katherine Harris look-alikes:

With Senator Bill Nelson running far ahead of US Representative Catherine Harris in the polls, Florida Democrats are pretty happy about his re-election prospects — but one of the party’s debate-watching parties tonight could be a real drag.

The Florida Gay, Lesbian, Bisexual and Transgendered Democratic Caucus will host a debate watch party featuring a Katherine Harris look-alike contest in Broward County. The contest is set for 9 p.m., right after the debate, and is open to both men and women.

The $10-per-person event is scheduled at Rosie’s, formerly Hamburger Mary’s, in Wilton Manors. Proceeds go to the Democratic Vote Center in Fort Lauderdale.

Florida’s Next Governor Might be a Democrat After All

Trish

The latest Quinnipiac University poll shows a dramatic change in the Florida governor’s race. Democrat U.S. Rep. Jim Davis is in a statistical dead heat with Republican State Attorney General Charlie Crist. The poll shows 46 percent support Crist, 44 support Davis, and 11 percent say they might still change their minds.

”We are seeing a candidate for what he really is…But it’s not going to work. We’re not stuck on stupid.”

For someone who seemed like a shoe-in the day after the primary, Crist has been unprepared for the going to be this tough. His early commercials stressed that a vote for Crist would be the next best thing to being able to vote for term-limited Jeb again.

Until Davis started pointing out some flaws in Jeb’s policies. Then Charlie — dare we say it — flip-flopped.

…Crist’s late-season conversions, coincidentally or not, target issues that Davis has been using to make inroads into Crist’s sizable lead in the polls…

”Life’s a journey,” Crist told The Miami Herald editorial board this week, explaining why he changed his mind on felons’ voting rights…

The felon-vote issue was accompanied this week by another zigzag, when Crist said he wants to allow flexibility in the way the high-stakes FCAT test is handled…

Those are all positions that Democratic opponent Jim Davis has staked out. They are also contrary to Gov. Jeb Bush’s approach — which Crist had earlier said he supported.

As the poll shows, everybody’s not buying it.

”We are seeing a candidate for what he really is — one who will do whatever it takes to win an election,” said [Democrat] Rep. Dorothy Bendross-Mendingall of Miami. “But it’s not going to work. We’re not stuck on stupid.”

And as Crist tries to distance himself from his soul-mate Jeb, he’s gotten a little taste of the big guy’s famous temper.

Some background: Crist’s ads have focused on the fact that Davis has missed votes (mostly minor ones that House Republicans have sewn up) during his campaign. After Jeb cancelled a cabinet meeting in order to give Charlie more time to campaign (Editor’s note: we’re positive Jeb would have cancelled the people’s business for a Democrat too. Not!), you could hear the testy in Jeb’s tone from here.

Citing an article in The Palm Beach Post in which Crist said he never asked for the cancellation, Bush said, “So what the heck, let’s have it.”

Finally, Florida newspapers this weekend, while still not offering proof Crist is gay, focused on his status as single and childless.

[Crist] seems to be missing one key ingredient: The typical politician pictures with his adoring wife and cute offspring.

…So does Crist’s lack of a family affect his qualifications to serve as governor?

After all, as a bachelor he has the time to devote to the demands of the office, without taking time away from his own wife and children. The same way Catholic priests can be single-minded in their devotion to their parish, Florida will get a governor who is committed full-time.

…we can’t help wonder, without those family experiences to hone skills that are also important in the political venue, can a person do as good of a job at governing and dealing with the Legislature?

Nice insertion of the priest image there. Did everyone get that? But wait, another paper took it from a different angle.

If voters choose Charlie Crist as governor, Florida won’t have a first lady. But it will have a first father.

Crist’s best friend, football-watching buddy and financial adviser is his 74-year-old father, the original Charles J. Crist, a politician in his own right who passed on his name to his only son.

You get the idea. All Davis needs now is more money since Crist’s millions have him outgunned with a deluge of ads. If you live in Florida, or if you just have some cash sitting around, go to the Davis web site and give. Hurry, the cut-off date is Nov. 2. Do it now.

Is Kerry Contributing to Another Election Loss?

Jon Ponder

John Kerry led the Democrats to defeat in 2004 — is he doing it again right now? Kerry has a campaign war chest of $14 million, and yet he has only contributed $15,000 to Democratic candidates this year. Two weeks and a day from voting, the polls show that there are new opportunities opening upfor Democrats in districts that were thought to be safe for Republicans.

Those Democrats need money — now. If Kerry holds onto his cash in 2006, we can — and will hold him responsible for losing another national election to the GOP:

As he campaigns extensively on behalf of House and Senate candidates, Senator John F. Kerry is under increasing pressure from Democratic Party leaders and activists to tap his $14 million campaign account and spread the money around to help the party’s efforts.

Kerry, a Massachusetts Democrat, has given less than $15,000 to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee since the beginning of 2005. Though he has helped candidates in a variety of other ways, his last major financial contribution to the DSCC came a month after he lost the 2004 presidential election, when he used $1 million in leftover campaign funds to help the committee retire its debt.

Do the right thing for your party, John.

Poll: GOP, President Bush Losing Evangelicals’ Support

Buck Banks

Burning Bush: It appears that Bible thumpers, tongue speakers, snake handlers and full-immersionists are joining Wal-Mart shoppers in turning away from the president and the Republican Party. After reading Jon’s post, I checked my e-mail and, lo and behold, therein found a Pew Research Center poll analysis on the same topic. Following are highlights of the analysis:

White evangelical Protestants make up over a third of those who identify with the GOP and vote for its candidates. But they, like other voters, are feeling voter disillusionment with President Bush and the Republican Party, and their level of support has significantly diminished from where it was in 2002 and 2004.

Evangelicals are no different from registered voters as a whole in their overall likelihood of voting.

From 1999 to 2004, the number of evangelicals identifying themselves as Republicans grew dramatically from 39 percent in 1999 to 47 percent in 2001, peaking at 49 percent in 2004 and 2005.

Signs of Evangelical Frustration
The number of evangelicals who have a favorable opinion of the GOP was 74 percent in the 2004 election. But it dropped to 54 percent last fall following Hurricane Katrina, before recovering to 63 percent earlier in 2006. By July of this year, however, it had declined to 54 percent.

There also has been a significant downturn in the number of evangelicals who believe the Republican Party “governs in an honest and ethical way.” In January 2006, a majority of evangelicals (55 percent) said that this phrase better described the Republican Party than the Democratic Party. In a poll conducted this month, however, just 42 percent of evangelicals still held this view, ­ a drop of 13 percentage points.

Evangelicals also became less likely over the past year to say that the Republican Party was “religion friendly.” In a July 2006 poll, 49 percent of white evangelicals described the GOP as friendly to religion, a decline of 14 percent from one year earlier.
[…]

McCain Threatens Suicide if Dems Prevail

Trish

Remember when we all shamed Bill O’Reilly into keeping his word and apologizing that he was wrong to support Bush’s invasion of Iraq? Well, stock up on letterhead because I’m sure you’ll want to hold John McCain to his word as well.

“I think I’d just commit suicide,” McCain told reporters

McCain, on a visit to Iowa to campaign for Republican congressional candidates, was asked his reaction to a potential Democratic takeover of the Senate in the November 7 elections.

“I think I’d just commit suicide,” McCain told reporters, to accompanying laughter from Republicans standing with him. “I don’t want to face that eventuality because I don’t think it’s going to happen.”

Yuck it up now, bald guy, because your day is coming.

Democrats must pick up six seats in the Senate and 15 seats in the House of Representatives to win control of both chambers.

Polls show Democrats within striking distance of reclaiming the Senate, and in a strong position to claim a majority in the House.

Republicans Tell Blacks, “Democrats Will Kill Your Babies”

Trish

Somebody stayed up late to come up with this one. A new ad campaign by the Rebooblican America’s PAC is being aired on urban radio stations. The campaign starts by telling African-American listeners that Democrats favor abortion as a means of wiping out blacks.

A female announcer says, “Black babies are terminated at triple the rate of white babies.” Democrats support “liberal abortion laws that are decimating our people”

In one particularly provocative spot, as a baby cries and thunder clasps in the background, a female announcer says, “Black babies are terminated at triple the rate of white babies.” Democrats support “liberal abortion laws that are decimating our people,” she says, while “the individual’s right to life is protected in the Republican platform.”

“Don’t buy the Democrats’ lie,” intones a male announcer as he reads the ad’s tagline. “Killing unborn babies is no way to help those in poverty.”

Another ad asks, “Why do our leaders in Congress support the pro-abortion agenda of the Democrats? Or more to the point: Why do we support them?”

I guess this has a certain appeal. More damaging, since it’s often true, might be the ads from the same group that say Democrats take black voters for granted.

The ads targeting African-American voters have been largely cleared on urban music stations owned by Lanham, MD-based Radio One, a minority-owned group which calls itself the “Urban Media Specialist.”

…”When someone you’ve called a friend betrays you, the truth can hurt,” a female announcer says. “For 50 years now, we’ve trusted the Democrats for education, health care and economic opportunity. And the truth is, today’s Democrats take us for granted.”

Least effective might be the ads targeting Latinos.

The group is also running ads on Hispanic stations in Denver, Albuquerque, Sacramento and Las Vegas, among other markets. The New York Sun reported one of those ads says, “Republicans respect the Latino soldier… Enough with these Democrats.”

Hear all the ads for yourself.

Florida Newspaper Endorsements: Nelson 10, Harris 0

Buck Banks

But who’s counting: Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson leads Republican Rep. Katherine Harris by almost every measure — in the polls, in sanity, and now, in newspaper endorsements. Last weekend, Nelson picked up endorsements from three Florida newspapers, bringing his total to 10. Harris has yet to garner an endorsement from any Florida fish wrapper.

Harris should be able to expect an endorsement by the Lakeland Ledger, right? I mean, she was born there.

Nelson has been endorsed by the Tampa Tribune, St. Petersburg Times, Gainesville Sun, Palm Beach Post, Daytona Beach News-Journal, Fort Pierce Tribune, Port St. Lucie News, Stuart News, Vero Beach Press Journal and the Sarasota Herald-Tribune.

Ouch! That last one had to hurt, since Sarasota is smack in the middle of Harris country. But maybe it’s too much for the Lord’s Chosen One to expect endorsements from the state’s top-tier newspapers. Maybe Harris should aim a little lower and go for quanity, not quality.

She could start by courting the Sarasoto Tempo-News, which, while it is not the Sarasota Herald-Tribune, it is hyphenated. Then there’s Basta Pinoy in Boca Raton, which serves the oft-forgotten Filipino constituency. Or the Bradford County Telegraph in Starke, home of Florida’s Death Row and a well-known bastion of wingnuts. Harris could probably pay to get endorsed by Miami’s El Nuevo Herald, as long as she said bad things about Fidel Castro.

Harris should be able to expect an endorsement by the Lakeland Ledger, right? I mean, she was born there, and did really well in a picnic poll two weeks ago, clobbering Nelson by 20 points. Other possibilities include the Okeechobee Times, Palatka Daily News, the Walton Sun and Williston Pioneer.

So take heart, Kate, there’s still a chance you’ll get a newspaper endorsement before the election. After all, I hear they’re expecting a cold front in Hell next week ….