Tag: Charlie Cook

Can the GOP Change — In Time?

Buck Banks

The momentous events of the last week can be interpreted in numerous ways. But one thing has become increasingly clear: The Republican Party needs to change. … Simply put, Republicans are loaded up in a car, racing toward a generational cliff with their eyes focused on the rearview mirror, with many (but notably not all) oblivious to the societal changes taking place all around them and the growing wedge building between their comfort zone and presidential swing voters… Republicans need to do some soul-searching about their future and their relationships with voters of generations to come. Vibrant parties change with the times, adapt themselves to changing conditions and circumstances. Maybe this past week will help the GOP do this.

— Charlie Cook, National Journal.

Cook: Bush, Walker Have 1 in 3 Chance of Winning Nomination

Buck Banks

1 in 3

Odds that Bush and Walker each seem to have of “winning the nomination — call it 35 percent for each. There’s maybe a 1-in-5, or 20 percent, chance that the nod will go to any tea-party candidate, so let’s give Cruz and Paul each a 10 percent chance. The rest of the field gets the remaining 10 percent; right now, that’s what I estimate is the likelihood that someone other than one of the aforementioned four will win the nomination,” predicts Charlie Cook.

The Odds Are Really Long that Hillary Clinton Will Win in 2016

Buck Banks

When it comes to making predictions about 2016, there are lots of important numbers to follow. The unemployment rate. Consumer confidence. The president’s approval rating. The horse race polls. But, in my mind, the most important data point to follow is the one which measures Americans’ desire to stay the current course or try a different one in 2016. … History tells us that the odds of a Clinton presidency are long. In the modern era (well, really since Andrew Jackson in 1836), no Democrat has succeeded a 2-term Democratic president.

— Amy Walter, writing for the Cook Political Report.

A SOTU Preview

Buck Banks

The president’s speechwriters will have started out to craft an important and thoughtful speech, determined to avoid having their boss deliver another really boring monologue that is both a laundry list of what the president wants to do and what he would do if the opposition party and special-interest groups rolled over and played dead for the rest of the year. But by the end of the process, despite the best of intentions, it will very likely sound like all of the others.

— Charlie Cook, in the National Journal.

Charlie Cook: Christie Was a Long Shot for 2016 Before Bridgegate

Jon Ponder

Charlie Cook is one of the most hard-nosed — and accurate — political prognosticators around. When my take on political events agrees with his, it’s reassuring. When it doesn’t, it is alarming or worse, depending on the issue at hand. In the case of Chris Christie’s chances of becoming president in 2016, even prior to the Bridgegate scandal, it is reassuring to learn Charlie Cook’s take was similar to mine:

Think for a moment who makes up the Republican Party, and most specifically the part of the GOP base that dominates the presidential nomination process. Think about the people they seriously considered for their party’s presidential nomination last time around. Think Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Rick Santorum, Rick Perry, and Newt Gingrich. Now, quickly, think Christie. Now think Sesame Street: “One of these things is not like the others; one of these things just doesn’t belong.” […]

Cook: 2014 Is a Make-or-Break Year for Senate Republicans

Buck Banks

The reason next year is so make-or-break for Senate Republicans is because in 2016, when all of the seats they won in 2010 come up — they netted a six-seat net gain that year — there will be 24 GOP seats up, compared with only 10 for Democrats, leading to some serious Republican overexposure. Seven of the 24 GOP senators up are hailing from states that Obama carried in 2012. After having had plentiful Democratic targets in 2012 and 2014, it will be Republicans in 2016 who will have the most incumbents in the crosshairs.

— Charlie Cook, noting the 2014 midterm elections may the the GOP’s last chance to take back control of the Senate for years.