1 in 3
Odds that Bush and Walker each seem to have of “winning the nomination — call it 35 percent for each. There’s maybe a 1-in-5, or 20 percent, chance that the nod will go to any tea-party candidate, so let’s give Cruz and Paul each a 10 percent chance. The rest of the field gets the remaining 10 percent; right now, that’s what I estimate is the likelihood that someone other than one of the aforementioned four will win the nomination,” predicts Charlie Cook.
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