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At this point, my gut suggests that by the time we get deep into the process, Trump will appear to have the support of the populist, less ideological third of the GOP, roughly where he is now; Cruz will have consolidated conservatives and roughly one third of the party; a conventional candidate (Bush, Christie, Kasich, or Rubio) will be pulling about a quarter, with the remaining fifth up in the air. That spells a contested convention.
250,000
Number of Iowans who “are expected to attend caucuses on a relatively mild Monday night and render judgment on insurgent candidates who would bar Muslims from the country (Donald J. Trump), oppose concessions to Democrats (Senator Ted Cruz of Texas) and pursue a high-tax, big-government agenda (Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont). Voters are poised to bring order to the race, or reorder politics, as in no other recent election,” the New York Times reports.
48%
Donald Trump’s lead over the GOP presidential field among likely Republican voters in Florida, followed Ted Cruz at 16%, Marco Rubio at 11% and Jeb Bush at 10%, according to a new Florida Atlantic University poll. Said pollster Kevin Wagner: “At this point, Donald Trump is simply crushing the opposition in the Florida Republican primary. Not only has he increased his lead, Mr. Trump’s favorability ratings among Republicans are now ahead of his competitors by a substantial margin.”
3-2-1
Marco Rubio’s new campaign strategy, “an unconventional path to winning the GOP primary contest. The strategy, dubbed ‘3-2-1’ by some who have been briefed on it, forecasts a sequence in which Rubio takes third place in Iowa on February 1, finishes second in New Hampshire on February 9, and wins South Carolina on February 20,” reports National Review. “From there, Rubio would be well-positioned in the long haul to win a plurality of voters, and ultimately a majority of delegates, in a three-way contest against Donald Trump and Ted Cruz.”
Donald Trump is the most unelectable Republican I’ve seen in my lifetime. Every problem we had in 2012, he’s made worse.
— Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), quoted by the Washington Examiner.
31%
Donald Trump’s lead in the GOP presidential race in Florida, followed by Ted Cruz at 19%, Jeb Bush at 13%, Marco Rubio at 12% and Ben Carson at 7%, according to a new OpinionSavvy poll in Florida.
42%
Of registered voters said the primary race has made them feel less favorable about the GOP, compared to just 19% who said they feel more favorable, according to the latest NBC News/ Wall Street Journal poll. Thirty-eight percent said the brawl for the Republican nomination hasn’t changed their view of the party as a whole.
I remain convinced that between now and the March 1 Super Tuesday/SEC primaries, and particularly the March 15 set of primaries and some contests after, those angry and profoundly anti-establishment voters will have finished venting their spleens. They will have sent their angry messages to the political establishment and will turn to the serious business of selecting a president, taking into account such things as temperament and judgment, marking the beginning of the end of their affair with Trump. They will coalesce behind a more plausible vehicle for their anger and anti-establishment views. That candidate is likely to be Cruz.
35%
Donald Trump’s lead over the GOP presidential field, followed by Ted Cruz at 18% and Marco Rubio at 15%, according to the NBC News/SurveyMonkey Tracking Poll. Key takeaway: “Perhaps surprisingly, Trump also has the highest support among white evangelical voters — 33%. Although Ben Carson did fairly well among white evangelicals (12%), the group heavily favored Trump. Cruz also did well with white evangelicals, with 2 in 10 supporting him.”
Four weeks before Iowa voters start whittling down the sprawling and fractious Republican presidential field, the nomination fight is taking on a decidedly dark tenor, with candidates warning of a country left weakened by an administration that would prefer to apologize for America rather than keep it safes. … This despairing tone was on display Monday as Republicans crisscrossed the country on the first full day of campaigning in the new year, and began airing commercials that had a singular and sometimes fearsome focus on national security.
