Conventions Have Little Effect on Outcomes

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Of the presidential elections between 1960 and 2012 (not including this year), “there have been seven where the party whose convention got lower ratings won the election in November. So it’s safe to say that ratings have little to no electoral meaning. … If we look back at the total ratings for every political convention from 1960 to 2012, it’s quickly apparent that the side whose convention receives the most viewers doesn’t necessarily win.” — Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball

Dear Dr. Democrat: Gallup Gives Me Gastritis

Dear Dr. Democrat:

doctordemocratsmallI’ve been reading Gallup polling, and it has me worried, though there seems to be good news and bad news. First, the bad:

The average American’s views of Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton have converged for the first time in Gallup’s yearlong tracking of the images of the two candidates, with Americans giving each exactly the same favorable and unfavorable ratings. The numbers for both candidates, based on interviewing conducted July 18-25, are 37% favorable and 58% unfavorable. In all previous Gallup updates stretching back to last July, Clinton’s net favorable has been higher than Trump’s.

The current period covers the four days of the Republican convention, but also includes the weekend in which Clinton announced her vice presidential running mate and the first night of the Democratic convention. In fact, when the data from Saturday, Sunday and Monday are isolated, the numbers are even slightly more in Trump’s favor — 37%/58% favorable/unfavorable, compared with Clinton’s 36%/59%.

[…]

Parents of American Muslim War Hero Call out Donald Trump

Khzr Kahn offers to lend Donald Trump his copy of the U.S. Constitution
Khizr Kahn offers to lend Donald Trump his copy of the U.S. Constitution

A few pundits are comparing this speech by Khizr Khan, the father of a soldier killed in action in Afghanistan, to the famous “Have you no sense of decency?” moment in that ended the communist witch-hunting career of Sen. Joe McCarthy in 1954.

There are striking parallels between the two incidents. Both McCarthy and Donald Trump are power-crazed, virulent demagogues. And both had connections to mob lawyer Roy Cohn. McCarthy mentored Cohn during the communist baiting hearings he held in the Senate. Years later Cohn was mentor to young Donald Trump.

(And here’s something that probably shouldn’t come as a surprise. Fox opted to break away during Kahn’s speech. The network ran an anti-Clinton Benghazi “Swiftboat”-style ad instead.)

Video and transcript of Khzir Kahn’s speech follow.

[…]

Trump Uses Campaign Stop in Roanoke to Whine Incessantly about Air Conditioning

Hotel Roanoke
Hotel Roanoke

You may have missed it but back in May Bill Maher made the point that Donald Trump behaves like the 1950s anti-woman stereotype of a know-nothing complainer. “If Trump was a man,” Maher said on “Real Time,” his HBO show,”he’d stop whining like a little bitch.” He referred to The Donald as “Lady Trump,” because “he’s a whiny little bitch.”

And thus was born the hashtag, #whinylittlebitch.

Personally, I avoid the B-word because it strikes me as inherently misogynist. I prefer to call women who behave like jerks or assholes, “jerks” or “assholes.”

But check out this report from a local newspaper in Roanoke about the way Trump behaved during a campaign rally there on Monday. If the hashtag fits…

[…]

Majority of Americans Oppose Trump’s Immigration Policies

84%

Of Americans and 76% of Republicans favor “allowing immigrants living in the U.S. illegally the chance to become U.S. citizens if they meet certain requirements over a period of time,” according to Gallup. And 66% of Americans oppose “building a wall along the entire U.S.-Mexico border,” and the same number oppose “deporting all immigrants who are living in the U.S. illegally.”

It’s Quickly Getting Too Hot to Work

$2 trillion

Amount that rising global temperatures could cost the global economy by 2030, according to Quartz. “New research suggests that climbing temperatures will make it harder for workers to do their jobs, particularly in the world’s poorest economies. The situation is worst for those in the lowest paid and most heat-exposed professions, such as construction and farming.”

The End of the GOP

On the surface, this seems like a normal Republican convention. There are balloon drops, banal but peppy music from the mid-1970s and polite white people not dancing in their seats. … But this is not a normal convention. Donald Trump is dismantling the Republican Party and replacing it with a personality cult. The G.O.P. is not dividing; it’s ceasing to exist as a coherent institution.

David Brooks