Dear Dr. Democrat: Gallup Gives Me Gastritis

Dear Dr. Democrat:

doctordemocratsmallI’ve been reading Gallup polling, and it has me worried, though there seems to be good news and bad news. First, the bad:

The average American’s views of Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton have converged for the first time in Gallup’s yearlong tracking of the images of the two candidates, with Americans giving each exactly the same favorable and unfavorable ratings. The numbers for both candidates, based on interviewing conducted July 18-25, are 37% favorable and 58% unfavorable. In all previous Gallup updates stretching back to last July, Clinton’s net favorable has been higher than Trump’s.

The current period covers the four days of the Republican convention, but also includes the weekend in which Clinton announced her vice presidential running mate and the first night of the Democratic convention. In fact, when the data from Saturday, Sunday and Monday are isolated, the numbers are even slightly more in Trump’s favor — 37%/58% favorable/unfavorable, compared with Clinton’s 36%/59%.

Then, there’s the good:

For example, Trump’s speech got the least positive reviews of any speech we have tested after the fact: 35% of Americans interviewed last weekend said it was excellent or good. Of the nine previous speeches we have rated, the top one was Barack Obama’s in August 2008, which 58% of Americans rated as excellent or good. The lowest-rated speech other than Trump’s was Mitt Romney’s in 2012, with 38% excellent or good…

The self-reported net impact of the GOP convention was also negative. Overall, 51% of Americans say the convention made them less likely to vote for Trump, while 36% said it made them more likely to vote for him. This is the highest “less likely to vote” percentage for a candidate in the 15 times Gallup has asked this question after a convention. The previous “less likely” high was 38% after both conventions in 2012, and after the GOP conventions in 2004 and 2008.

I know polls can be wrong, but this one scares and encourages me simultaneously — what should I believe?

— Galluped-Over in Gainesville

Dear Galluped:

Hillary’s negatives are fake. Trump’s are real. He can’t change his. They’re baked in. She can change hers because they are, excuse me, trumped up by Fox News, Matt Drudge and the GOP. It will be tough, but remember that her approval was in the mid-60s when she left the State Department.

I think the DNC and Clinton campaign did a masterful job in starting a reset. It’s going to be tough, but they/we have a chance to do it. They’ll continue to lay the groundwork. It’ll then be up to her to bring it home in the debates.

The good news is, she’s done it before. I’m thinking about her debate with Lazio in the Senate race. She mopped the floor with him.

More good news is that she’ll have Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), Michelle Obama, the president, Joe Biden and Tim Kaine — not to mention Katy Perry, Sarah Silverman and other celebs — out stumping for her.

Trump has nobody. He has his ability to control news cycles by saying stupid stuff, and even though that has worked miraculously well for him until now in the primaries, it’s very risky in the general election.

I suspect our side will deploy several people to bait Trump into losing it — Elizabeth Warren and Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm come to mind — which will leave Clinton above the fray. She’ll continue to criticize him, but she won’t make Little Marco’s mistake of getting in the mud with him.

I think the Democratic Convention was a smashing success and our chances now are as good as they’ve ever been.

The smart guys at Keepin’ It 1600 did predict that polls would be released showing a convention bump for Trump as the next convention was concluding, and obviously, that’s what’s going on. Maybe next week we’ll see a big convention bump for Hillary.

— Dr. D

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